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#141
May 17th, 2012, 08:36 PM
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#142
May 17th, 2012, 08:41 PM
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Whatever one's preferences are between the two, it makes a more interesting timeline that way.
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#143
May 17th, 2012, 08:42 PM
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#144
May 17th, 2012, 08:52 PM
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#145
May 17th, 2012, 08:56 PM
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Possibly the latter, like the Hashemites of Jordan (kinda like them despite my views on monarchy).
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#146
May 18th, 2012, 02:12 PM
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In a hurry, but here's the new update!
1459 "I really hate Priests"-attributed to Vlad III Dracula Fresh off the victory over the Ottomans, Pope Pius II begins sending out emissaries to make good his gains for Catholicism following the war. In particular, he wants the conversion of King Vlad III, Emperor Constantine XI, and George Kastrioti Skanderbeg, as had been promised in exchange for the Papacy’s support. For Skanderbeg, this is a relatively easy affair to set in motion, as the church is generally accepted in the heavily Italianized Albanian principalities, and Skanderbeg’s own conversion means little for the common citizen, since Skanderbeg is the de facto head of the military, but to the populace he is a war hero, but not their ruler. For Vlad III and Constantine XI, this poses a somewhat greater problem. For Vlad III, it is a problem because both Bulgaria and Wallachia are Orthodox, and although Wallachia was fairly accepting of Catholicism, Bulgaria has it’s own well established church tradition. That said, the church itself was disunited, and was currently under the control of Patriarch Gregory III of Constantinople, who remained, even if subdued in his own land, active in the support of reunification in his interactions with his subordinates. It is only after securing Gregory III’s release from his probation in Constantinople, for the purpose of using him as a figure in the reunification, that serious plans for Vlad III’s conversion can be made (1). Gregory travels to Bulgaria in early February, and arrives in Tarnovo on the 7th. Although his Patriarchate has been met with suspicion and prejudice in Constantinople, he is a considerably more popular figure in Bulgaria, for his perceived role in the crusade, and general holiness of character. The aging Patriarch is quite pleased to experience popular support for the first time in his reign, and goes on something of a tour around Bulgaria in order to preach the union of the churches. He is met with fairly enthusiastic support, however travelling is strenuous on the elderly patriarch, and is only made worse by the cool late winter weather. By the 20th, the Patriarch has been confined to bed by a chill, and is looking unlikely to recover. Realizing that the window of popular support for his conversion is closing quickly, Vlad III begins preparing a formal ceremony at the Church of St. Demetrius. On the 25th, Patriarch Gregory experiences a brief recovery, and is able, with considerable aid, to preside over the formal conversion of Vlad III to Catholicism, along with a formal union between the Bulgarian and Latin rites. It is a dramatic step towards reunification, and more than a few of the Bulgarian clergy take offense to it, but they lack any strong figure to lead a rebellion on account of Vlad III’s purges of the nobility, and the populace tend to either support Vlad for defeating the Ottomans and setting up a third Bulgarian state (which is administrated separately from Wallachia at this point). Besides that, years of Ottoman rule, and especially the large scale conscription towards the end of Mehmed II’s reign, have exhausted the Bulgarian appetite for conflict. As far as they are concerned, the Bulgarian Church has gone from the control of the Patriarch of Constantinople to the joint control of the Patriarch and the Pope, although in practice the Latin right becomes the more dominant of the two. In Constantinople, Constantine XI attempts to gain more time before his conversion, largely because he is certain that it will be ill received at home. He honestly does favor reunification, as from his stance the doctrinal differences are minimal, while the impact on the state’s political situation would be more than enough to outweigh the loss of prestige for the Patriarchate. Unfortunately for him, he is in the minority camp here, with most of the priesthood firmly backing the schism as legitimate, and denying the validity of The Council of Florence. For all his hopes to build a strong foreign policy, Constantine XI is forced to recognize that to accept the Latin rite outright would be complete suicide for his domestic policy, something that cannot be done. At the same time, refusing to honor his agreement with the Pope would give his allies cause to attack hi, which would be no less bad. It is in this dire situation that Constantine XI finds himself in early 1459, and he can do only one thing about it; stall for time. He is able to hold up diplomatic proceedings until Vlad III has agreed to invite Patriarch Gregory III to preside over the reestablishment of communion between the Bulgarian and Latin churches. This gives Constantine at least until Vlad III’s formal conversion to attempt to solve the dilemma. He removes as many rabble-rousers as possible quietly, most notably Gennadius Scholarios, who was the leader of the anti-union party at the time, by exiling him to Chios, where he is looked after by men loyal to Protostrator Giovanni Giustiniani. Although not nearly so brutal as those of Vlad III, Constantine nevertheless sought to purge the nobility of powerful anti-unionists by restricting them from positions of influence. The task was only possible at all on account of the relative monopoly that the Palaiologos family had gained on power in the empire, thanks to their strong grip on the Morea, and the fact that the entire rest of the empire had been engulfed by the Ottomans, with the exception of the Capital and a few islands. Athens was under the rule of nominally Catholic foreigners, who would be pleased at Constantine’s conversion rather than angry, while the Morea was under the control of Thomas, who was unionist himself, and would not likely be willing to betray his brother with his limited resources in any event. The result of this was the effective neutralization of the rural military aristocracy, while the Constantinopolitan aristocracy would be looked after closely by Giovanni Giustiniani and George Sphrantzes. The news of Patriarch Gregory III’s illness in late February was another cause of concern, this time laden with both opportunity and risk. Gregory III was not well liked in Constantinople by this point, largely because he had displayed so nakedly his desire for full union with the west, and although he was considered a generally holy man, his reputation never recovered from the church infighting in his early reign. Now Constantine had a chance to groom a successor for him while he was ill and incapacitated in Bulgaria. Pius II too realized what Gregory’s failing health meant for the situation in Constantinople. In light of this, he sent his own nominee for Gregory’s successor, Cardinal Basilios Bessarion. Although initially apprehensive about anyone nominated by Rome, Basilios Bessarion was a fairly sound candidate for the Patriarchate. A native of Trebizond, he had been named Metropolitan of Nicaea some two decades earlier by Emperor John VIII, and had served with distinction among the Greek bishops at The Council of Florence. He had been named Cardinal by Pope Eugene IV during the course of the council. He had chosen to remain in Italy up to this point, since opposition to the union was still great in the empire, but was now more than willing to attempt to change the unionist’s fortunes by becoming patriarch. Not only that, he was a capable speaker, and capable of working for the union subtly enough to avoid the wrath of the masses. Constantine was quick to support Bessarion after speaking to him, but was still certain that he could not yet convert without outraging the people to the point of bloodshed. He arranged to speak privately with Bessarion, and confided in him the danger of an immediate conversion. He then officially offered his support for Bessarion to become the next patriarch, on the condition that Bessarion would help negotiate with Pope Pius II for more time. Bessarion agreed, but the plans could not yet be carried out, as Gregory III continued to draw breath. Gregory III lingered on far longer than anyone had predicted, despite being unfit for travel, and only died after a particularly intense fever overtook him on May 9th. His body was brought back to Constantinople for burial, but by that point the city was far more concerned with the new political situation brought on by his death than remembering Gregory III himself. With most of his competition removed, and Constantine XI, George Sphrantzes, and Giovanni Giustiniani supporting him, Bessarion was easily named the new Patriarch. For the most part, he kept quiet in general, and although the people had some knowledge of his unionist background, he was careful not to give them any reason to further mistrust him. Instead he began using church funds to benefit the urban poor, gaining some measure of trust for him among the people, though he refused to make any statements regarding reunion with Rome. As promised, Bessarion attempted to aid Constantine in buying time to gain popular support. Shortly after being named Patriarch of Constantinople on May 18th, he sent a long letter to Pope Pius II explaining the situation, and requesting a decade’s time to get the city in order before making a major move to reunite the church. Pius, although a generally reasonable man, considered this to be utterly unacceptable, and sent a reply stating that Constantine must submit to Rome’s authority immediately. Nonetheless Bessarion persisted, and in the end was able to convince Pius to wait until the end of 1461, giving them a worryingly short two years to prepare the populace to accept Constantine’s conversion. As a counterbalance to the tensions in Constantinople, Constantine XI set a wedding date for his marriage to his 12 year old bride to be Anna Komnena, daughter of the new emperor David I of Trebizond, at June 15th. The Trebizondian Emperor himself attended the wedding, and offered quite a reasonable dowry for his daughter. The wedding was performed by Patriarch Bessarion, but he once again kept relatively quiet, an easy feat amidst the pageantry that accompanied the wedding. It was a well-placed festival, as it allowed the focus of the city to shift from the looming threat of Latinization to the victories won by the Surviving Eastern Roman states in the last two years, as well as more frivolous things like the apparel of the imperial couple. In Anatolia, both the crusaders and the Ottomans found their strength exhausted from the previous year’s activities, and each respectively began to focus inwards on stability. Laszlo, by now King Laszlo I of Smyrna, attempts to foster unity between the native Christians and his Hungarian crusaders, since most of the other crusaders, with the exception of a reasonable number of Germans, had returned home by now. In this effort he was hampered by the papal focus on Constantinople, and the delay in the reunification of the churches. That said, he still enjoyed more than enough support to ensure the loyalty of the people to him over Orhan in the south, while in the north he made an effort to settle his remaining crusaders on the former estates of the Ottoman nobles. It is also noteworthy that the Knights of St. John were given chapter houses in most major towns inside the kingdom, and that their membership increased tremendously following the crusade, as the poor or dispossessed soldiers of the west once more could see the knights as a potentially profitable organization to be a part of. Raids on Ottoman and Mamluk ships intensified, and control of the eastern Mediterranean waters was largely in the hands of the Knights by the early 1460s. In the Ottoman Empire, Orhan II was working hard to bring the nobility to heel. Although while the war was going on finding estates for all of the nobles was a fairly impossible task, at peace, and with the aid of Candarli Ibrahim Pasha, Orhan was finding it a far more manageable task than he had thought. During the war he had been unsure of where the border would lie with the Kingdom of Smyrna, making it impossible to reasonably estimate how much land he could give them in the south and west. The final settlement, although undeniably a bad defeat for the empire, was not so devastating as he had feared. The other point about pacifying the nobility was that several of the noble families were left without effective leaders by the Battle of Lake Apolyont, making the number of estates required to be provided only about eight percent of what it was before the battle. Thus Orhan II and Candarli Ibrahim Pasha managed to avoid a resumption of hostilities with the former Hamza Pasha faction. Despite this, the empire was exhausted, and was forced to pay tribute to the Karamanids to prevent raids into their territory, since their military might was too exhausted to fight another war so soon. Given the circumstances, it is amazing that Orhan II was able to hold any significant portion of the Ottoman Empire together, but the situation by the end of 1459, while still quite bad, was no longer life threatening for the empire. Although there had been losses, the empire had managed to retain the major cities of Bursa, Konya, and Ankara, and these cities, with the exception of Bursa, had suffered very few ill effects during the war. Although the European territories had been lost, the infrastructure that Candarli Halil Pasha had built up over the last five years was intact, and so the empire found itself still financially capable even in the aftermath of a military disaster. In Hungary, King Ladislaus V, who’s reign had been completely dominated by John Hunyadi, and later the conflicts between John Hunyadi and Ulrich of Celje, died on October 9th. Although he had been married for two years to Magdalina of Valois, daughter of Charles VII of France, their marriage was fruitless during his lifetime, with only one Posthumously born daughter, Elisabeth, to show for it (2). His death, while now believed to be of natural causes, was not accompanied by any recognizable disease (although the King had been generally sickly for some time), and so both Hunyadi and Celje accused one another of poisoning their king, while trying to put themselves on the throne. Although Hunyadi had more popular support for his bid to become king, especially after the birth Ladislaus’ daughter Elisabeth, whereupon he promised to marry her to one of his grandsons (3), Celje was unwilling to back down, and civil war loomed on the horizon, with both forces looking to find outside help for their cause, especially within the court of Frederick III, the Holy Roman Emperor. In Serbia, chaos continued to reign, and Vlad III of Wallachia had begun supplying several of the rebel factions to intensify the civil war. He had hopes of conquering Serbia too, but he needed more time in Bulgaria to cement his rule, especially after converting to Catholicism. He also needed to ensure that his forces could stand without Hungarian and Papal aid, and was forced to reform his military in order to make more full use of the Bulgarian majority of his population. Because of this, he made it a priority to ensure that the Serbian civil wars continued until he was in a position to profit directly from them, supplying whichever forces were in most danger of losing at the moment. In Western Europe, the only significant fighting was the resumption of The Wars of the Roses, in England. The fighting resulted in The Battle of Wakefield, and the death of Richard Duke of York, and his younger son Edmund. The victory broke the Yorkist monopoly on power in England, but failed to fully replace them with the Lancastrians, leaving Richard’s son Edward to continue the war. It would be several years before true order would come to the British Isles, but none would forget the actions taken once order was restored. (1) The Bulgarian Patriarchate had been dissolved by the Ottomans, making the Patriarch of Constantinople the head of the Bulgarian church again. (2) Ironic, since Ladislaus himself was posthumously born too. (3) Something that Ulrich cannot do, since at the moment he has no children.
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#148
May 18th, 2012, 03:53 PM
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Yet another good update, Avitus.
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#149
May 18th, 2012, 09:14 PM
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Now I have some more time to answer posts properly.
Elfwine, All of what you have said about their position is true, but I don't think that it is nescessairy for a nation that wants to control Byzantium to annex it outright, especially with how costly assaulting the Theodosian walls is. I think that political domination, much as the Ottomans had been doing up until Mehmed II, who I consider the Ottoman equivalent of Manuel Komnenos, in that he conquered for prestiege and not because it was more advantageous than peaceful domination. If nobody like him comes along as ruler of whatever nation is politically dominating Byzantium at the time, then they will consider to exist. At this point, the empire has passed into a state of heavy Genoese influence to replace the Ottomans, but the Genoese are much more pragmatic, so as long as the empire is profitable for them they will continue to use it. In future, I intend to replace Genoese influence in the empire with another neighbor, which will change the focus of the empire again, and give them new opportunities in the transition. Without giving too much away, just wait until you see what happens when Constantine XI dies, not to long if you consider his age of 55, it's gonna be a turning point n many ways. And I won't just handwave Democracy, but I want it to be different. Maybe spread the Italian style around instead of the new form we got in the OTL age of enlightenment. It's still a while down the road, so I'm open to suggestions. Tongera, regarding Monarchy, something like that, although I have yet to decide fully on anything outsied the 1400s aside from the afore mentioned 5 rules. I do want to avoid the monarchy becomming politically irrelevant like they did in Isaac's Empire 1.0, but the exact amount of power they weild is probably going to fluctuate ruler to ruler more than anything. As for territorial extent, I think that runiting Greece is a given fore survival at this point, but Anatolia, while there may be some territorial reclamation (or some sort of union with Trebizond), will not be the core of the empire again. Too much time has gone by for more than the northern and western coast to accept Byzantine rule easily, and the empire is definitely not strong enough to impose itself on an unhappy populace. Dragos Cel Mare, glad you like it, but I'm afraid that people will not like the people's grudging tolerance of a Catholic Cardinal as the new Patriarch. Still, if anyone could pull it off I think it is Bessarion, and accepting him is not nearly the same thing as accepting ecclesiastic union with Rome.
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#150
May 18th, 2012, 09:19 PM
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Bessarion sounds like a facsinating invididual. Even if he fails, it'll still make for a good read.
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#151
May 18th, 2012, 09:23 PM
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#152
May 18th, 2012, 09:42 PM
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As for post-Constantine XI: Guess we'll have to see then.
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#153
May 19th, 2012, 10:15 PM
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A very comprehensive update Avitus and here are some references and sources about captain Flantanellas:
1) Sir Steven Runciman:"The Fall of Constantinople 1453 N.Y.1969 (Cambridge University Press) 2)Nicolo Barbato:"Diary of the siege of Constantinople" translated by J.R.JonesExposition-University book,Exposition Press-Barbato,a doctor,was an eye witness of the siege and of the sea battle where Flantanellas was involved. 3)Sir Edwin Pears:" The Destruction of the Greek Empire and the story of the capture of Constantinople by the Turks" London 1903.-In his book he has drawn information from George Sfrantzes,the historian of the siege of Constantinople from his book "ΧΡΟΝΙΚΟΝ"(Τhe Chronicle) vol.III where he describes the action in detail and alse gives the names of the other Genoese captains. Below are two sites you can also read: www.greece.org/romiosini/fall.html and www.agiasophia.com/emperors/conpaleo.html Last edited by cimon; May 19th, 2012 at 10:27 PM..
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#154
May 20th, 2012, 03:36 AM
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Dragos Cel Mare, Yeah, I figured that since he is one of the leading Greek figures in the Italian renaissance, and a noted humanist, he has potential to be a real crowdpleaser in Constantinople, something which will obviously be nescessairy to make any inroads for reuniting the churches. At the very least, he will be a more interesting and dynamic Patriarch than Gregory III, who was nice, but mostly a space filler both here and OTL. A kindly space filling Patriarch is okay, but he lived in extraordinary times that called for extraordinary persons, and he (and his OTL successors) paled in comparison to those around him.
Elfwine, With hindsight Constantinople is worth the effort, but back then most of Mehmed's highest ranking officers (especially Candaril Halil Pasha) were against the siege. He only pulled it off at all because he replaced most of his experienced commanders with his personal favorites from the Jannisaries during the siege. Even then he might well have lost if Giustiniani hadn't been fatally wounded by chance, as he had called in his reserve troops and was still losing until that point. And that is with 7,000 defenders and 80,000 (or more, depending on your source) attackers. No other Balkan or Italian nation, or even TTL's Ottomans at this point, can muster that now, and Constantinople can count on 10,000 defenders and the new defensive guns that weren't there OTL, so I expect that a direct attack on the city (that is, one that doesn't rely on political intrigue) would be impossible for at least a decade given the current situation. Even then you would need to have control of both sides of the Bosporus and the sea itself, meaning that Venice, Genoa, Wallachia-Bulgaria, Smyrna, and the Ottomans would need to band together, and would need the empire to recieve no outside help. Frankly I can't see that attack working even if it did happen, and of course it wouldn't. That said, the key to taking the city is exploiting the political divisions on the inside, like the 4th Crusade did, and which is not too difficult to do. And I think that OTL monarchy remained popular as long as the monarch was popular and successful at competing on the international scale. When he/she was neither of these things, the monarch tended to fall back on the military, which usually went poorly, and forced them to give up a measure of their power. All out revolutions were rare (France kinda had a perfect storm with an unpopular, unsuccessful, Louis XVI who didn't even have the full upport of the military), and most monarchies survived until WWI & WW2, when the Allied anti-monarchy crusade decided that they would cluster f*** Eastern European politics for the fun of it. Without such a perfect storm, I see some level of powerful monarchy remaining, with most adopting some varrying level of constitutional constraints, but not becoming figureheads. cimon, Thanks for the praise, and thanks very much for the sources and links. I'll be sure to use as much as I can from these. Starting on next update now, should be up on monday. Chaos in the Aegean forthcoming 
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#155
May 20th, 2012, 03:59 AM
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Giustiniani being unwounded does not give the defenders victory, it just means that they might hold off against another few attacks before being overwhelmed. Calling this a "losing" siege because after less than two months he hadn't taken the city is . . . Giving the defenders far too much credit. Quote:
That Constantinople won't fall as long as Constantine XI is emperor, or something similar, I can see. This idea that its secure for the forseeable future is preposterous.
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#156
May 20th, 2012, 04:41 AM
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Elfwine, from what I've heard, modern historians air on the side of believing that if that assault was broken, as it was the last one that Mehmed could launch successively, the siege would have dragged on, since the defenders could catch their breath and prepare themself for the renewed assault. Moral in Mehmed's camp was low before the assault, and he was living in fear of Hungarian and Venetian intervention. If he committed everything like that and failed, casualties aside moral would be shot, so the siege might have ended right there. If it didn't than the victory might inspire those nations (like Hungary and Venice) who were on the fence to attack, which guarantees that the siege ends, and in the event of one of those nations achieving a major victory, could even lead to an Ottoman military collapse, or Mehmed's death, or any number of other things that prolong the wait before city's demise, so in allot of ways it did depend on that assault, which in turn was decided by the chance loss of Giustiniani to a bullet in the chest.
And yes, Constantinople (or any city) being immune to conquest for the forseeable future is absurd. That won't happen, I was just trying to illustrate that for most at the time, a siege of Constantinople would be a last resort compared to any other means of subduing and profiting off the empire. I only say that 10,000 men and a handfull of new guns would be significant because of what less were able to do OTL against one of the largest forces ever assembled in the Medieval era, especially since the largest army that any of their neighbors now can bring to bear is in the 30,000 range.
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#157
May 20th, 2012, 08:53 AM
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And Hungary and Venice attacking, even if they do, is not the same as them being able to win. So in a lot of ways, it did not depend on that assault, unless the Ottoman army was on the verge of falling to pieces (which sounds suspicious - again, this has been a seven week siege, as sieges go, including past sieges of Constantinople, that's nothing). Quote:
I don't mind it lasting for a while, but I think Mehmed is being treated as gambling on something that wasn't a gamble, for something that wasn't worth it when it was. And that's what I mind - obviously 30,000 men without a good artillery train are probably going to need to besiege the city the hard way (starve it out), but see oh, Bayzeid (sp?) I.
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#158
May 20th, 2012, 02:20 PM
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Elfwine, most of the influetial officers in Mehmed's army hated him, his soldiers were heavily demoralized, even more if they launched a general assault and were utterly routed, as with the first two stages of the assault OTL, so it is fair to assume that they would become despondant, though as I wasn't there I'm just looking at the plausible outcome based on what had already happened. Actually, they very nearly left when supplied managed to make it past the naval blockade, so after a disaster like a rout I think that is the most plausible outcome. The casualties would have been heavy .We don't have, to the best of my knowledge, accurrate figures for the Ottoman casualties, but that in and of itself could be an indicator that Mehmed didn't want it to be known, since he is the one who would have been in charge of that knowledge at the time, and we can already assume that, with two assaults of upwards of 20,000 men being routed, the death toll was gonna be bad.
We can also look at the resst of Mehmeds reign, where armies of similar sizes failed miserably against western forces quite often. His main forces (that is, ones generally believed to be in the range of 50-80 thousand) routed twice from Vlad III (who never commanded more then 20,000), once without significant fighting because of fear tactice (which should shw how susceptible they were to bad moral), several times from Skanderbeg, who commanded 2,000 men (with his most devastating victory being at Kruje, in defence of a siege) and Mehmed himself was put to flight at Belgrade by John Hunyadi, with a force of roughly 15-20 thousand. Compared to this, 7,000 men behind the Theodosian walls (much better than the meagre walls of Kruje) is nothing. The Ottomans at this time were a large army with a dismal record. All of their expansion had to be opportunistic, not because it was smart, but because against an organized well commanded enemy they tended to have their asses handed to them. The notabe acceptions are the Battle of Varna, and the siege of Constantinople, both of which were won because the leaders of the western armies died unexpectedly and caused panic in the ranks. As for starving it out, at this point none of the active land powers in the area have significant navies. so for that to be successful you need at least two peoples, probably someone and Genoa, to work together. It's far from impossible, just unlikely. And I do consider Mehmed to have been gambling, for reasons listed above. More importantly, all of his senior military staff at the time thought he was gambling too, so I'm gonna go with their opinion here. Still, although I enjoy debating the plausability of this, it is going to be irrelevant to this TL anyway. There will be further attempts on Constantinople, and as to weather they succeed, you will have to read them when they come to determie weather you think they were successful.
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#159
May 20th, 2012, 03:42 PM
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Just as a general purpose nitpick: "A repulsed assault" is NOT the same as a rout.
Not even close.
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