Wi John Smith's 1988 Heart Attack was Fatal

[Peelitebkearns]

Hi all,
This is another British political Wi, partly influenced by a great TL I was reading on here, focussing on the survival of John Smith past his 1994 death, going on to become PM in 1997 and denying Tony Blare the premiership in the process.

My question is, what would have happened if Smith's earlier 1988 heart attack killed him? I heard from somewhere he was at the doctors at the time and that probably saved his life.

If Smith dies in 1988, who replaces him as Shaddow Chancellor? Of course it was Gordon Brown OTL, though that was only while Smith was recoverring. Does Brown become Shaddow Chancellor on a perminant bases here?

How does this affect Thatcher's remaining time in office and the subsequent 1992 election?

If we assume there are minimal butterflies from Smith's death and Kinnock still loses to Major on schedule, who becomes Labour leader at this point instead of Smith? IOTL, Smith was pretty unanimously respected within the party, leading to his almost Brown-like corination in the 1992 Leadership contest.

Could Brown go for it here? Brian Gould was the only other leadership contender, though he lost pretty badly to Smith. Could he win in the absence of Smith though?
Who else is potentially in the running? I have a feeling Blare won't be in a position to do so and therefore won't become PM, at least not in 1997...

[pipisme]

It is more likely than not that Gordon Brown would become Shadow Chancellor on a permanent basis if John Smith dies in 1988.

Possible candidates in the Labour leadership contest in 1992, in alphabetical order, are:
Margaret Beckett
Gordon Brown
Robin Cook
Frank Dobson
Bryan Gould
Michael Meacher.

[Peelitebkearns]

Originally Posted by pipisme

It is more likely than not that Gordon Brown would become Shadow Chancellor on a permanent basis if John Smith dies in 1988.

Possible candidates in the Labour leadership contest in 1992, in alphabetical order, are:
Margaret Beckett
Gordon Brown
Robin Cook
Frank Dobson
Bryan Gould
Michael Meacher.

I imagine Brown would be the front runner then, with Gould not far behind?

[The Red]

Major would probably still hangs on, although it may be a Tory minority Government. Brown becomes Labour leader in 1992.

[Charles James Fox]

Gordon Brown had only been in the Shadow Cabinet for a year at that point. While it's possible that he would become Shadow Chancellor it's also possible that someone else could have taken Smith's position, Hattersley held the role until the year before and could revert back to it. Gould was Shadow spokesman for Trade and Industry, a natural stepping stone for the position.

I agree with pipisme's list, thought if Smith isn't present in 1992, I could also see his friend Hattersley running (without much success) in the last action of his political career. Tony Blair and Jack Cunningham are other possibilities.

[Charles James Fox]

Originally Posted by Peelitebkearns

I imagine Brown would be the front runner then, with Gould not far behind?

Gould was never really popular within the party, I'm guessing that it would be a close race between Brown and Beckett.

[Peelitebkearns]

Originally Posted by WhigMagnate

Gould was never really popular within the party, I'm guessing that it would be a close race between Brown and Beckett.

Wonder how things will pan out with either Brown or Beckett as leader then. Labour are bound to win in 1997, so I wonder what either of them will do in office.

[SlideAway]

As others have said, I think the likely outcome here is Brown as shadow chancellor, then being elected Labour leader in '92 - perhaps with Blair as his deputy. (That was the ticket Blair suggested in OTL '92 but Brown demurred feeling he couldn't defeat Smith.)

So you get Brown as PM in 1997 with a smaller majority than OTL.

[V-J]

Smith indeed had his heart attack in hospital at the time; he'd just been examined after feeling unwell. ("They told me everything was fine. And then I had a heart attack" as he put it later.)

Disagree with the idea that Brown would become Shadow Chancellor actually. I think he's too junior at this point, (He's been in the shadow cabinet for just one year, as shadow Chief Secretary) and this is the era when you really need to be a big-hitter, to have done your time, to get a top shadow cabinet post. Brown is really not even an up-and-comer at this point, which started IOTL precisely at this very moment, when he stood-up for Smith at the despatch box while Smith recuperated.

No, I think it's much more likely that Gould becomes Shadow Chancellor. I believe this was just before his relationship with Kinnock went sour, and IIRC Kinnock flirted with the idea of making him SC after '87. (I think he was shadowing the DTI at this point, but I could be wrong)

I don't think Gould would be a team player. His positions were sort of all over the place really, he naturally alienated people from what I know. I think he'd fall out with Kinnock just as he did IOTL, and probably most of the rest of the shadow cabinet. Assuming he makes it to the end of the Parliament without a resignation, and assuming that Labour loses in '92, I can't see him winning the leadership contest against, as I guess it would inevitably be, Brown.

[V-J]

Actually, I might add that there were a lot of people in the 1989-1992 period who were pressuring Smith to run against Kinnock for the leadership. Now obviously, Gould is of a different quality to Smith, so the voices whispering would probably not be the same - but they would probably still be there.

I'm not sure Gould could mount the support neccessary for an *actual* formal leadership challenge, but some kind of abortive backroom putsch/resignation is more than possible.

I don't even want to get into speculating on the potential knock-ons on 1992 from all this, we're in a world of air on that one.