WI: No Qing Dynasty?

[WhatIsAUserName]

What if the Manchurians never attacked and destroyed the Ming Dynasty, and instead formed the "Later Jin Dynasty" (as the Qing Dynasty was initially called) in Manchuria?

I highly doubt that the Ming would survive till the present day, but there would much less rebellions against the Manchu rulers, who were considered foreigners like the Europeans. Would China modernize, or stagnate under rule by the Han peoples?

Would Manchuria modernize before the Mainland? Or if it didn't, would China modernize seeing the effectiveness of European weapons and technologies against the Manchu armies? Or would the Later Jin dynasty live as a weak power, and cease to exist when annexed by Russia?

What would be the effects on the Republic of China, the People's Republic of China, etc?