Help Me Out Here: The Soviets Win The Polish-Soviet War... and more!

[80 Million Fleas]

I'm fiddling around with this alternate history idea for a comic book I'm writing. Unfortunately, I think I've ran into some problems. I have set of goals in mind, but I'm uncertain about how these things might come to be without making it sound like ASB were involved. I figure you fine alternate historians could help me out and determine what could work and what would be absolutely improbable.

The following is the list of events that I want to work, unless it's truly that impossible. I've organized this by region--with the only exception being the USSR (since, you know, they're in two regions).

USSR

* The Soviets win the Soviet-Polish War. Poland becomes a SSR within the Soviet Union (or perhaps its own independent
nation, if necessary.)
* Joseph Stalin dies during Soviet-Polish conflict and is replaced with a commander of equal or greater value. Leon Trotsky will replace him as the leader of the USSR after Lenin kicks the bucket.
* The Soviets march into Germany, aiding the Spartacus Uprising. After a long and bloody conflict that lasts into the late 20s/early 30s, Germany becomes Marxist and, perhaps, an SSR.
* The USSR remains unusually quiet after that, focusing on structuring its insides for a period and suppressing the occasional uprising.
* Trotsky dies in the mid 1950s. He's remembered as a blood thirsty war monger, despite of the fact he did killed far less of his own people in TTL then Stalin did in OTL. Regardless, he's reviled in the same manner, which political manics in American politics equating whatever current president's in power to Trotsky.
* Whomever follows Trotsky takes the Soviet Union on a path comparable to "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics", perhaps going so far as to revert to Lenin's NEP or to use Market Socialism.
* By 2010, The USSR is will have been Superpower for quite some time. It continues to jiggle the 'carrot' of economic prosperity in front of its populous while it beats with its 'stick' whenever someone suggests further autonomy for nationalities and/or negative rights. In recent years, many jobs in the Anglo-American block have been shipped over to the USSR.
* Tuva, Mongolia and eventually OTL's Xijaing are made into SSRs.. probably while Trotsky was still alive. You'll see the probable rationale for this under Asia.


Europe

* Portugal, Spain, Austria, Greece and Italy become Fascist, just like OTL.
* Germany doesn't, for reasons that are more than obvious, if you've been reading.
* Hitler emigrates to the United Kingdom and remains there for the duration of his life. He lives his entire live in obscurity as a window washer. Hipsters will ultimately bring back the toothbrush mustache in the late 00s.
* France is the only other major nation that becomes fascist. Interestingly, it fails due to poor management and general disdain from the public. The regime lasts until a bloody civil war starts off in 1968 and ends by 1971.
* Portugal and Spain will convert to democracy, just like in OTL.
* Greece, Austria and Italy will retain their places, albeit mostly due to being propped up by Brazil and/or Japan.
* Surprise, Surprise... Sweden and Switzerland remained neutral.
* The UK gives the Irish the entire island.
* The United Kingdom remains a major power, even after its colonial possessions become independent.
* By 2010, The UK, Sweden, France and Italy have nuclear weapons due to "Atomic Fever", an event that took place after the Soviet Union and Japan develop their own nuclear weapons programs in the late 40s.


The Far East and Oceania

* The Empire of Japan ITL is a bit more careful, especially considering that with the UK not distracted by any ongoing war in Europe. It focuses mainly on picking now independent, former US colonial possession gave to the Philippines and Hawaii before attempting to conquer China.
* The USSR soon joins in the battle for China in the late 1930s, incorporating OTL's Xiajing into the USSR as the East Turkmen Socialist Soviet Republic and making western China its own independent People's Republic led by Mao. Japan's own eastern China and Manchukuo battle with its Soviet counter parts. This eventually leads to Soviet-Japanese War of the 1940s.
* In 1947, the Japanese develop plans for the world's first atomic bomb. A Japanese scientist with ties to Moscow sends the plans to the KGB HQ and the Soviet Union easily duplicates the bomb. They both test their a-bombs, literally just days apart from each other. Soon, Japanese planes drop an atomic bomb on a city in the Russian Far East. The Soviets retaliate by dropping their own bomb on a city in Korea. Tempters flare and the war heats up, albeit no new nukes had been dropped as of yet. Fearing an excessive use of nuclear warheads would send the world into chaos and start a second world War, the League of Nations calls upon special joint meeting to bring about peace, led by a recently joined USA. A peace settlement was eventually settled--China was officially split into two and Japan gained the northern half of (Whatever the p. huck name it is) Island. The Soviet Union was allowed to keep incorporate Mongolia, Tuva and East Turkmen Republic into SSRs while West China must remain independent.
* After emperor of Manchukuo falls ill in the late 50s (and given the great number of Japanese in the region), Japan officially absorbs Manchukuo into Japan. This upsets the Soviet government, but given their strives for a more peaceful existence, they don't make a huge fuss over it.
* Japan has also set up a number of puppet-states in South-East Asia, particularly after the fall of European colonialism. Includes Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. Since the United States focused on the Caribbean during its colonial period, the Philippines and Hawaii was granted its independence early on, but was soon also absorbed into Japan's sphere of influence.
* Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and the rest of Asia and Oceania under the Anglo-American sphere of influence.
* Tibet is still around. It's a neutral nation that's rather poor, getting sizable proportion of its GDP from tourism.
* By 2010, The Empire of Japan is barely alive. It's faced with a myriad of internal and economic problems, as well as ongoing problems of trying to keep Koreans and Chinese within their own borders under control. Its been speculated that Japan will seize to be an expansive empire by 2020.

The Near East and Northern Africa

* Due to much more careful diplomatic talks and the British's constant fear of Japan or the USSR gaining influence in the region, the Union of India remains in tact, with only Burma becoming its own nation. India becomes a major player in the region, using its neutrality to play to all sides to get the support it needs--which it uses to combat its poverty and the many separatist movements that pop up.
* Mohammad Mossedgeh remains in power in Iran, even after nationalizing his nation's oil industry. Iran remains a democracy and is quasi-neutral; it deals with the USSR and the Anglo-American sphere, but not the fascists.
* Turkey remains the same as it did in OTL. It's under the Anglo-American Sphere of Influence.
* The entire nation of Yemen becomes Marxist early on.
* Iraq, Egypt and Trans-Jordan are under the Anglo-American sphere of influence, albeit none of them are exactly democratic...
* Libya is still a colonial possessions of Italy by 2010, but Italians remain in a constant off-again, on-again struggle to keep the local populous under control.

Southern Africa and the Anti-Colonial Period of the 1970s and 1980s

* After France regains control of its own nation from the fascists in the 1970s, With France too weak to maintain control of nation of its former colonial possessions and/or to fight the fascist government in exile, it decrees that its colonial possessions are now free to establish their own nations. This causes a major uproar in the world community, especially in the Anglo-American's sphere of influence. Regardless, the dominoes start to topple and the whole of Africa becomes a shit storm of people battling for ideological supremacy--with Ethiopia, South Africa and French fascist government in exile operating out of Mali remaining relatively safe. Zaire and Madagascar falls under the influence of Moscow. Japan, focused with replacing their European counterparts in Southeast Asia, doesn't attempt to muscle to weigh in on the African chaos. Much like OTL, Africa isn't great place to be, even by 2010. It's even -more- worse off than 2010 IOTL, with the exception of Ethopia, which is functioning quite well having fending off Il Duce's forces early on and Marxists later on.

South America

* Brazilian Intergalists gain control of the capital in the early 1930s and start a fascist government there. It becomes a major power in the region, due it part to the success of the economic programs. It's still fascist by 2010, but has a considerable break with Japan in the 1970s due to ideological differences.
* With the help of communists like Enesto Guevera and the secret backing of the Soviet Union, Argentina becomes the first Marxist nation in the Western Hemisphere in 1961. This, of course, leads to an immediate conflict between Argentina and Brazil that lasts throughout most of the 60s, with the world powers fearing to join in due to nuclear weapons. It ends in a stalemate, with Brazil begrudgingly agreeing to allow a communist Argentina to exist. Argentina eventually becomes a major power, as it fears another war with Brazil.
* By 1980, Brazil and Argentina will both have nuclear weapons.
* Brazil, Argentina and the United States regularly meddle in the affairs of weaker nations in Central and South America. Chile and OTL's French Guyana is made fascist by Brazil while Columbia and Bolivia becomes Marxist due to Argentine involvement. Wanting their own interests represented, the USA has Peru, Panama, Mexico and Venezuela in its sphere of influence. Most of the other nations in the region are neutral or too chaotic to weigh in.

North America

* [North America is a bit different. Its PoD is further back along the time line, but considering that the United States was/is remarkably isolationist in TTL, I don't see it effecting the other nations much. Regardless, I will post the information I have on it, if requested.]

[Maur]

You need to adress the issue of French troops in Rhineland.

[yourworstnightmare]

Germany won't become an SSR, but an own Communist Republic (and probably retain some land from Poland), equal with the USSR. I can even see France and Belgium propping up a democratic German Republic in the Rhinleland (that probably will fall if France turn Fascist).

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be conquered by the USSR after the fall of Poland.

[KingByng]

Why is the United States in the League of Nations, and why is there an Anglo-American block, if the USA is "remarkably isolationist in TTL"?

And that island I think you were referring to in the Soviet-Japan peace bit is Sakhalin.

[yourworstnightmare]

Also the USSR was more supprtive of Chiang's nationalists than the Chinese Communists in the the inter-war era.

I don't see a French government in exile surviving in Africa, if France goes democracy again. Sure, the Colonial administrators would have prefered the Fascists, but they can live with a democratic Paris. If France goes Commie it's another matter though.

So, no Abyssinian war for Italy? Interesting. (Your proposal that Ethiopia would be able to fend of the Italians is ASB. Ethiopia never had any chance alone, their only hope was Britain intervening).

Wether Mossedgeh really was a democrat is debatable, he could very well just lead Iran into some other form of authoritarian rule.

[WarBastard]

Have to agree with YWN, can't see Germany becoming an SSR.

[Intosh]

Originally Posted by 80 Million Fleas

* The USSR soon joins in the battle for China in the late 1930s, incorporating OTL's Xiajing into the USSR as the East Turkmen Socialist Soviet Republic and making western China its own independent People's Republic led by Mao. Japan's own eastern China and Manchukuo battle with its Soviet counter parts. This eventually leads to Soviet-Japanese War of the 1940s.

* In 1947, the Japanese develop plans for the world's first atomic bomb. A Japanese scientist with ties to Moscow sends the plans to the KGB HQ and the Soviet Union easily duplicates the bomb. They both test their a-bombs, literally just days apart from each other. Soon, Japanese planes drop an atomic bomb on a city in the Russian Far East. The Soviets retaliate by dropping their own bomb on a city in Korea. Tempters flare and the war heats up, albeit no new nukes had been dropped as of yet.

A japanese A-Bomb in 1947 is ASB... Even if Japan didn't fight a Pacific War, war with the Soviet and their chinese allies will have the some consequences, total defeat of Japan. Even if Japan is not invaded, the IJN is to powerful, Japanese will lost everything on the mainland.

If a militarist Japan and a Soviet Union exchanged nuclear attacks, there is no way something as the League of Nation will stop this war. And the Soviet will not attack a Korean town but a big city in Japan, probably Tokyo to kill the Emperor, the autocratic archevil in the mind of every good communist...

And on the conventional front, the Red Army will crushed everything Japanese will be able to send on continental Asia...

Also, there is zero possibility for the USA to let the Hawai be independant. So an independant Hawai in the japanese zone of influence is also ASB...

[80 Million Fleas]

I thank everyone for their input and I'll address all these questions accordingly, fix a few things, and post another post sometime or another. >>;

[Intosh]

Originally Posted by WarBastard

Have to agree with YWN, can't see Germany becoming an SSR.

I agree with both of them. Germany will not become a communist state after 1920.

Because if Poland is defeated in Polish-Soviet war. The conquest of Poland will be in summer - fall 1920 after a defeat at the battle of Warsaw in August 1920.

So at best, the Red Army will be on the Germans borders at the beginning of winter 1920-1921.

The Spartakist movement was already crushed in winter 1918-1919 and its main leaders killed.

But you have right, in winter - spring 1921 you have general strikes and a communist uprising in the Ruhr region where was formed a "Red Army" of 50 000 strenght and it took control of the province. You have others communist rebellions in Saxony and Hamburg.

But these uprising were put down by the Reichwehr (the regular army) and the Freikorps.

Even if the Ruhr uprising will be more successful, you can have the intervention of troops from Belgium and France, and it will be a good pretext to take control of a rich industrial region to speed up the payment of the Versailles reparations.

So a communist Germany is not realistic because of the strenght of the Reichwehr and the Freikorps and because every neighboors will be afraid of communist contagion and will take measures against revolutionnary movements near their borders. First France helped by Belgium, probably Austria...

Another point, for the Japanese zone of influence in Asia and Oceania. Every countries becoming independant will not accept to enter voluntary a new zone of influence. If Vietnam or Indonesia become independant, they will not accept to replace French or Dutch colonlization for Japanese "influence". And history prove that french, dutch or british rules in asian colonies were very much pleasant than japanese help for independance in 1941-1945.

[Arachnid]

With regards to Germany falling to the Commie's that is dependent on the Reichswehr staying weak. The moment that Germany looks even slightly like going Red then Britain and France will drop all objections to re-armament and probably aid it. They didn't like Germany but they disliked Communism even more. You can get a Red Germany just not in 1920 thanks to the Red Army.

[yourworstnightmare]

Yes, and don't forget the problem with the Spartakus uprising was that Berlin was a little red island in a white sea. Brandenburg was Prussian core territory, and thus extremely conservative. No way a little revolution in Berlin would be able to spread. The Bavarians had the same problem with their Munich revolution, weren't able to get followers outside Munich, which weakened it considerably.

A successful revolution would have to start in northwest or in the Rhineland (but there are French and Belgians nearby) or even in Saxony/ Thuringia, in heavily industrialized areas with a widespread Socialist leaning working class, so it can spread beyond just one city.

[WarBastard]

What I meant was there is no way Germany would become part of the USSR. It'sd debatable whether it would become communist, but it was never going to join the Soviet Union. Bulgaria maybe, Poland and Finland at a stretch, Germany never.

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by WarBastard

What I meant was there is no way Germany would become part of the USSR. It'sd debatable whether it would become communist, but it was never going to join the Soviet Union. Bulgaria maybe, Poland and Finland at a stretch, Germany never.

Yup, a Communist Germany would be it's own Republic and in all ways equal with the USSR.

[The Marauder]

If Trotsky so much as steps one foot into Germany after taking over Poland, expecting the full force of Europe to promptly charge against the USSR. There's just no way that's going to fly over with France or the United Kingdom, absolutely not. People didn't like Trotsky enough already and if they see him emboldened after a Polish victory moving onto one of the most powerful nations on mainland Europe, the grand crusade against Communism is justified. We already had Allied troops fighting Bolsheviks during the revolution, it's no stretch of the imagination to see that fighting again.

Plus, I can't see the USSR being properly armed to continue the struggle, especially after Poland. I'd like to be proven wrong, but there's a limit to all the revolutionary momentum; there are a fair number of reactionary elements still present back in Russia, many of whom don't like Trotsky particularly well.

Keep Stalin alive and have him head the USSR after a Polish victory. Let Poland be an independent Marxist state, and the Spartacus Uprising will be better received among the general population of Germany. If Poland gets directly annexed, there'll be too much Bolshevik resentment and fear for the Communists to do much of anything in Germany.

[Intosh]

My new proposition to improve this TL in Europe :

- the Soviet Union defeated Poland in 1920,
- Red Army and Reichwehr clashed in western Poland where germans troops came to protect local population, both Polish and German from Red Army,
- the Soviet Union and Weimar Germany settled a border between Polish SSR (annexed to SU) and Germany as in 1914, maybe some more territories for Germans in former Galicia, for example Cracow and western Galicia will be german...

The Entente and Weimar Germany accepted to settle differences and have a common alliance against the USSR.

Germany have regain territories lost in the east and some more in western Galicia... So no will to fight for some small territories in the west (Alsace, Lorraine...) and they focused against Red Army not very far from Berlin...

Balkans countries also accepted to settle differences by fear of the Red Army...

So no WWII in Europe...

Another point, Fascism in France in 1960-1970 is rather impossible, because it will be probably a bankrupt ideology after 40-50 years of existence in southern Europe. Sorry but I don't think fascism will lead to a better economy and dictature can suppress democracy after 50 years as in OTL Spain...

The only way for France to become fascist will be if France will fighting a war in Algeria as in OTL and the army make a coup with Pieds Noirs to keep French in Algeria. It will be bad for the Arabs with a Apartheid kind system...

Italy will be probably Lybia and it will be heavily italianised...

You need to rethink about european decolonisation both in Africa and Asia, because without WWII and the permanent fear of a big SU, european countries will not decolonize quickly...

Probably a lot of wars as in Indochina, Algeria, Kenya or communist insurrection as in Malaya...

So in Europe, you will have a kind of EU, intergrated economicaly after economic crisis and politically and military by fear of the SU... The big players will be France, Germany and Italy... Scandinavian countries will remain neutral...

The UK will be still a major player in the world because of a more united Commonwealth...