Minor POD: Effect of Germany that reaches the Adriatic Sea

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by Big Tex

And my brief take. Assuming Berlin decides to build up a Mediterranean fleet (take into account expenses, need, etc....it might not be worth it) then we would see less build up in the North Sea and a total revamping of power politics.

Might make for an interesting and very different WWI...

If Germany knows whats best for itself it would build up its strength in the North Sea and have a 'fleet in being' in the Adriatic. The Adriatic can be easily closed off at the Straits of Otranto. Just look what happened to the Austro-Hungarian fleet in the Great War. The sea became a extremely dangerous area for any battleships since it was quickly infested with mines and torpedo boats.

The possession of Trieste would help commercially but not militarially.

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Originally Posted by The Sandman

Maybe; given the existing canal network, all you really need to do is get a canal from the Adriatic to the Danube. Where you'd actually put the thing, I have no idea.

The only remotely feasible canal route across the Dinaric Alps would be from Trieste to Ljubljana ;
and that would have ascend almost a thousand feet over 25 miles. It's build-able but maybe not
economically feasible.

[Big Tex]

Originally Posted by David S Poepoe

If Germany knows whats best for itself it would build up its strength in the North Sea and have a 'fleet in being' in the Adriatic. The Adriatic can be easily closed off at the Straits of Otranto. Just look what happened to the Austro-Hungarian fleet in the Great War. The sea became a extremely dangerous area for any battleships since it was quickly infested with mines and torpedo boats.

The possession of Trieste would help commercially but not militarially.

Strategically and in hindsight your very correct; but the politics of owning Trieste and being involved in Mediterranean politics would demand somekind of Mediterranean fleet. Also Berlin would certainley have a strike at the Suez Canal in the event of a British war at the top of any potential immediate naval action, making Trieste all the more important in that sense.

And while your correct that any fleet in the Adriatic would probably end up being a massive waste due to geography, the strength of the Royal Navy, German HS Fleet inadecies, etc...thats because we have the knowlege of hindsight. Turn of the Century Germany was all about quick offensive strategies in event of war and prestige projects; a strong fleet at Trieste accomplishs both of those goals.

And if resources are devoted to constructing a fleet in Trieste (even if it is smaller than the Atlantic Fleet) then it would certainley dictate that the Atlantic Fleet would be more reduced than OTL.

[Big Tex]

Originally Posted by Mad Bad Rabbit

The only remotely feasible canal route across the Dinaric Alps would be from Trieste to Ljubljana ;
and that would have ascend almost a thousand feet over 25 miles. It's build-able but maybe not
economically feasible.

Its completley ASB but this is purely a bit of fun and speculation. For any truly buildable route it the canal would go though Ljubljana, follow the river valley to Maribor, swing into Hungary briefly before entering Vienna, swing north to Prague, cross even more elevation changes before entering Dresden then finally being able to break out into the North European plain...and even that part isn't easy.

If one even looks past the sheer elevation issues, the super massive dredging to make rivers and even creeks naviagble (and in many cases creating whole new waterways), and the thousands of locks involved that make spending time in the canal roughly equal to simply shiping something via the ocean....then we hit the immense geopolitical issues. Take the difficulties in building the Berlin to Baghdad railroad and multiply them by 1000. Even if Austria and Slovenia are a part of Germany ITL you still have a canal taking place in two nations (Germany and Hungary) and withing striking distance of Poland/Russia, Italy, and whatever Balkan nations arise. If this route exsisting in OTL it passes through 5 nations and comes withing miles of three others.

Utterly impracticle...yet utterly awesome to talk about.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Big Tex

Turn of the Century Germany was all about quick offensive strategies in event of war and prestige projects; a strong fleet at Trieste accomplishs both of those goals.

Very true.

I think another important point in German politics changed due to a mediterranean port is Morocco. If the Germans own Morocco - including that Spanish strip of OTL - they could enforce entrance to the mediterranean, or exit. This would be an important strategic asset.

[MerryPrankster]

What if Germany absorbed Slovenia along with Austria but the other nations grab those two ports? If Trieste and Fiume are in the hands of the Italians and Croats, could Germany built an earlier version of Koper?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koper

[Vitruvius]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

What if Germany absorbed Slovenia along with Austria but the other nations grab those two ports? If Trieste and Fiume are in the hands of the Italians and Croats, could Germany built an earlier version of Koper?

I would think that Pula would be of more use as it was OTL the major Austro-Hungarian naval base and shipyard. While Triest (I believe Terst is the slavic name) was a major commerical shipping center, the headquaters of Austrian Lloyd is on the Piazza Unita', Pula was the military center. This of course wasn't established later in the 19th century so it could unfold differently but I think the fate of Istria is an important consideration. Its probably untenable for the Germans without either Triest or Sankt Veit (Rijeka/Fiume). The Italians on the other hand maybe could hold it by sea without those cities, the Venetians did for 500 years so why not?

Likewise its worth considering the fate of Gorizia (Görz) which was Austrian about as long as Triest but of course was an irredentist objective as was Trento which could be given to Italy to compensate for Triest. Then there's Dalmatia. Who would get that strip. It hadn't been Croatia in a rather long time yet the population was only Italian with in a few coastal enclaves and it was administered as part of Cisleithania not Hungary-Croatia so neither country has a great claim if Austria is being partitioned. It could provide some excellent harbors, Cattaro/Kotor for example.

To my way of thinking the best German option would be to play Italy and Hungary off against each other and both against the slavs while keeping the two on good terms with Germany. So maybe Italy gets Trento and Dalmatia but Germany keeps Triest, Istria and Sankt Veit - Rijeka. Hungary is given Croatia-Slavonia. This devides up south slav territories rather effectively amongst competing powers. Which would be important given that Germany would have to contend with a large Slovene population with dreams of a united Illyrian-pan south slavic state. As someone mentioned its hard to project power from the Adriatic since the straights of Otranto can be closed off so Dalmatia doesn't by the Germans much. So best just take the commerical harbors in the north and their hinterland and exercise power as a fleet in being. Though that might not stop the Germans from trying anyways, perhaps an alliance with the Ottomans to give them access to Albania and thus secure the entrance to the Adriatic.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by Big Tex

Strategically and in hindsight your very correct; but the politics of owning Trieste and being involved in Mediterranean politics would demand somekind of Mediterranean fleet. Also Berlin would certainley have a strike at the Suez Canal in the event of a British war at the top of any potential immediate naval action, making Trieste all the more important in that sense.

The British will just maintain a naval base on Corfu from which it can bottleup the Adriatic. Possible they will also develop their base on Cyprus earlier which will form another major defensive point for Suez.

[The Sandman]

I see a much greater likelihood of any Adriatic-Danube canal being built for commercial use. If you do it that way, you can make use of the existing canal network within Germany to ship goods from the Danube up to the North Sea, without the insane degree of dredging and widening that would be necessary to allow blue-water warships to use this route.

Assuming that a slightly less-than-direct route is possible, a careful perusal of a map on the Genocide seems to indicate that there are actually some valleys running from Gorizia to the northeast along the boundary between the Julian and Dinaric Alps that get most of the way through the mountains. You might be able to get a route through to the Sava north of Ljubljana with only a small section of major locks. Failing that, you might try to devise some sort of funicular system by which you would transfer the barges from canal to rail and back again to cross the pass there.

Once you reach the Sava, you just need a Sava-Danube canal; that, however, would be relatively simple to build compared to the Adriatic-Sava portion.

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Vitruvius

Likewise its worth considering the fate of Gorizia (Görz) which was Austrian about as long as Triest but of course was an irredentist objective as was Trento which could be given to Italy to compensate for Triest. Then there's Dalmatia. Who would get that strip. It hadn't been Croatia in a rather long time yet the population was only Italian with in a few coastal enclaves and it was administered as part of Cisleithania not Hungary-Croatia so neither country has a great claim if Austria is being partitioned. It could provide some excellent harbors, Cattaro/Kotor for example.

To my way of thinking the best German option would be to play Italy and Hungary off against each other and both against the slavs while keeping the two on good terms with Germany. So maybe Italy gets Trento and Dalmatia but Germany keeps Triest, Istria and Sankt Veit - Rijeka. Hungary is given Croatia-Slavonia. This devides up south slav territories rather effectively amongst competing powers. Which would be important given that Germany would have to contend with a large Slovene population with dreams of a united Illyrian-pan south slavic state. As someone mentioned its hard to project power from the Adriatic since the straights of Otranto can be closed off so Dalmatia doesn't by the Germans much. So best just take the commerical harbors in the north and their hinterland and exercise power as a fleet in being. Though that might not stop the Germans from trying anyways, perhaps an alliance with the Ottomans to give them access to Albania and thus secure the entrance to the Adriatic.

In this reasoning, I would give Italy all those territories that were dearfelt Italian irredentist objectives but held little strategic/economic value for Germany (esp. if they can keep Italy friendly): Trento, Gorizia-Gradisca, western Istria, and Dalmatia, while Germany keeps Trieste, eastern Istria, and Fiume. This would very likely make Italy appeased enough to accept a long-term strategic partnership with Germany. With an Italian alliance, the entrance to the Adriatic is fully secured for Germany (as well as being very close to controlling the Mediterranean).