Southern America Act of 1774

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

Upon further review, what the loss of the South might mean is that Adams wins a second term in 1800. So the policies of his previous administration continue. By 1804, however, I imagine the nation might be ready for a change, and Jefferson is still in a position to run, so he wins his first presidency term in 1804 instead of his second term. Some of his actions from his first term are delayed, but he probably plays catch up nicely. Instead of Madison in 1808, Jefferson would likely win a second term. Which brings us a Madison run for his first term in 1812. Would it be against DeWitt Clinton again? In part, that may depend on whether Jefferson has swayed enough votes to get America embroiled in a war with the British (which he might still, though by a whisker rather than a nose as IOTL). The smarter bet might be that there's no declared war with the British, but a Jeffersonian version of the Quasi-war this time against the Brits.

DeWitt Clinton was an OTL Democratic-Republican who was recruited by the Federalists due to his anti-war stand. So no war, he's not the guy, I'm thinking.

[Glen]

The First Presidential Election of 1789.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

The First Presidential Election of 1789.

US Presidential Election of 1792

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

US Presidential Election of 1792

US Presidential Election of 1796.

[Glen]

A note on population by the 1790s.

At the end of the Revolutionary War, there will be a certain trade in population, with more Mid-Atlantic Loyalists heading south and more Southern Patriots heading north, given the closer borders. Compared to OTL, the increased number of Loyalists heading out of the US in the Mid-Atlantic states will be smaller compared to the number of Patriots heading north, and thus a net increase in population for Virginia (and later Kentucky), Maryland, Delaware, and perhaps Pennsylvania. Some of this Patriot population growth will be reversed with the abolition of slavery as slaves are sold south into the British Carolinas.

It is impossible to say for certain what the actual population numbers would be in this scenario, but I will use as a rough premise that the actual population numbers stay relatively the same, but the proportion of whites to blacks in the Mid-Atlantic states will shift with a net decrease in black population in those states compared to OTL. I'm going to arbitrarily hold the numbers of house districts for these states (and thus electoral votes) the same as OTL for the sake of convenience. Obviously there would be some differences from OTL just from chance, but not enough I feel to warrant the effort and it would be more whim than science to assign new ones.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

A note on population by the 1790s.

At the end of the Revolutionary War, there will be a certain trade in population, with more Mid-Atlantic Loyalists heading south and more Southern Patriots heading north, given the closer borders. Compared to OTL, the increased number of Loyalists heading out of the US in the Mid-Atlantic states will be smaller compared to the number of Patriots heading north, and thus a net increase in population for Virginia (and later Kentucky), Maryland, Delaware, and perhaps Pennsylvania. Some of this Patriot population growth will be reversed with the abolition of slavery as slaves are sold south into the British Carolinas.

It is impossible to say for certain what the actual population numbers would be in this scenario, but I will use as a rough premise that the actual population numbers stay relatively the same, but the proportion of whites to blacks in the Mid-Atlantic states will shift with a net decrease in black population in those states compared to OTL. I'm going to arbitrarily hold the numbers of house districts for these states (and thus electoral votes) the same as OTL for the sake of convenience. Obviously there would be some differences from OTL just from chance, but not enough I feel to warrant the effort and it would be more whim than science to assign new ones.

OTL populations from the 1790 census:

State...................Total.....Slave
Vermont...............85539........16
New Hampshire....141885.......158
Maine..................96540..........0
Massachussetts...378787..........0
Rhode Island.........68825.......948
Connecticut........237946......2764
New York...........340120.....21324
New Jersey........184139.....11423
Pennsylvania......434373.......3737
Delaware.............59094......8887
Maryland............319728...103036
Virginia..............747610...292627
Kentucky.............73677.....12430

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

A note on population by the 1790s.

At the end of the Revolutionary War, there will be a certain trade in population, with more Mid-Atlantic Loyalists heading south and more Southern Patriots heading north, given the closer borders. Compared to OTL, the increased number of Loyalists heading out of the US in the Mid-Atlantic states will be smaller compared to the number of Patriots heading north, and thus a net increase in population for Virginia (and later Kentucky), Maryland, Delaware, and perhaps Pennsylvania. Some of this Patriot population growth will be reversed with the abolition of slavery as slaves are sold south into the British Carolinas.

It is impossible to say for certain what the actual population numbers would be in this scenario, but I will use as a rough premise that the actual population numbers stay relatively the same, but the proportion of whites to blacks in the Mid-Atlantic states will shift with a net decrease in black population in those states compared to OTL. I'm going to arbitrarily hold the numbers of house districts for these states (and thus electoral votes) the same as OTL for the sake of convenience. Obviously there would be some differences from OTL just from chance, but not enough I feel to warrant the effort and it would be more whim than science to assign new ones.

It should also be noted that the British South is more black now than IOTL.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

US Presidential Election of 1796.

While the outcome of the 1796 election will still be Adams, I might have to reconsider some of the Mid-Atlantic votes as the Patriots from the South may tilt the character of these states more Democratic-Republican than they were IOTL.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

While the outcome of the 1796 election will still be Adams, I might have to reconsider some of the Mid-Atlantic votes as the Patriots from the South may tilt the character of these states more Democratic-Republican than they were IOTL.

The 1800 election will be a very narrow thing ITTL I suspect even with the loss of the South as there are more Democratic-Republicans from the Southern exodus of Patriots in the Mid-Atlantic regions. Might still go to Adams as opposed to Jefferson, though.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Glen

While the outcome of the 1796 election will still be Adams, I might have to reconsider some of the Mid-Atlantic votes as the Patriots from the South may tilt the character of these states more Democratic-Republican than they were IOTL.

A possible revised electoral college vote for 1796.

[Glen]

I may consider in future a retcon of this timeline's Treaty of Paris to give the nascent America also OTL's Upper Canada south of the 45th Parallel. The US is smaller ITTL so may want that additional bit more which the British apparently weren't unmovable on, and with the South remaining British they have less need of lands for Loyalists.

If I do, there is a good chance that there will be no Upper Canada ITTL, and that the branches with the US gaining Upper Canada will also have to be butterflied out....hmmm, could we get a divergent New Brunswick to rise up instead....

[benjamin]

Glen, If you would like I could try to scan in the picture of the old Mitchell Map showing the possible northern boundaries of the U.S. Some of these options gave the U.S. much of Lower Canada and as such may give you an idea as to what Britain was willing to put on the table.

Population wise I think Virginia would be the most affected. With slavery ending there will be many slaveholders who are willing to head south to retain their "property." Conversely, with the Southern America Act coming in 1774 the possible patriot population in the south will have had over a year to come to grips with the fact that the southern colonies will remain British. Combined with the fact that the south sees very little actual fighting during the Revolution there will be far less animosity between Loyalists and the few Patriots. This being the case there will be less ill will between the two groups and so the Patriots will have less incentive to leave the south. This means that there will be more people leaving the North (slave holders and Loyalists) than leaving the South (a few die hard Patriots).

Just my thoughts
Benjamin

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by benjamin

Glen, If you would like I could try to scan in the picture of the old Mitchell Map showing the possible northern boundaries of the U.S. Some of these options gave the U.S. much of Lower Canada and as such may give you an idea as to what Britain was willing to put on the table.

Quebec!?!? What parts of Quebec?
[Actually I suspect this was a lapsus menti and you meant Upper Canada. Remember Upper means up river, so Upper Canada and Upper Egypt are both the southern ones...]

[benjamin]

Crud!! I always get that wrong! I am generally very good at remembering history and geography but identifying Lower and Upper Canada has always caused me trouble. So, I stand corrected. No, the negotiations that took place in late 1782 to early 1783 never proposed giving the U.S. parts of Quebec. But if Franklin hadn't gotten sick or Jay had been a bit more assertive Ontario would be ours!! Ours, I tell you...Ours!!! Bwaahhh, Hahhh, HHaaaa, Haaa...eh.

Benjamin

[Glen]

Originally Posted by benjamin

Glen, If you would like I could try to scan in the picture of the old Mitchell Map showing the possible northern boundaries of the U.S. Some of these options gave the U.S. much of Lower Canada and as such may give you an idea as to what Britain was willing to put on the table.

Sure. I've seen some references and images of the Mitchell Map online, but none that clearly show alternative borders.

Population wise I think Virginia would be the most affected. With slavery ending there will be many slaveholders who are willing to head south to retain their "property."

Some, yes. Many, I don't think so. Impossible to say for certain.

Conversely, with the Southern America Act coming in 1774 the possible patriot population in the south will have had over a year to come to grips with the fact that the southern colonies will remain British. Combined with the fact that the south sees very little actual fighting during the Revolution there will be far less animosity between Loyalists and the few Patriots. This being the case there will be less ill will between the two groups and so the Patriots will have less incentive to leave the south.

Actually there is some fierce infighting, just not enough to keep them in America. Patriots will still have plenty incentive to leave.

This means that there will be more people leaving the North (slave holders and Loyalists) than leaving the South (a few die hard Patriots).

Just my thoughts
Benjamin

I appreciate them, as always, but I think it will be fewer slaveholders and more patriots than you do, thus my contention that the net population change is not that great.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

Quebec!?!? What parts of Quebec?
[Actually I suspect this was a lapsus menti and you meant Upper Canada. Remember Upper means up river, so Upper Canada and Upper Egypt are both the southern ones...]

Yeah, I think they meant Upper Canada.

[Glen]

Originally Posted by benjamin

Crud!! I always get that wrong! I am generally very good at remembering history and geography but identifying Lower and Upper Canada has always caused me trouble. So, I stand corrected. No, the negotiations that took place in late 1782 to early 1783 never proposed giving the U.S. parts of Quebec. But if Franklin hadn't gotten sick or Jay had been a bit more assertive Ontario would be ours!! Ours, I tell you...Ours!!! Bwaahhh, Hahhh, HHaaaa, Haaa...eh.

Benjamin

Funny, very funny....

[randomideaguy]

I really like this idea, and also am anxious for you to reach into the 1820s and beyond, and would like to see how North America develops in this timeline.
Beyond that, I have nothing very valuable to add to the conversation, just posting to say I have subscribed

[Glen]

Originally Posted by LoyalistColonial

I really like this idea, and also am anxious for you to reach into the 1820s and beyond, and would like to see how North America develops in this timeline.
Beyond that, I have nothing very valuable to add to the conversation, just posting to say I have subscribed

Great to hear. This timeline actually branches into at least three timelines at this time:

Republics of North America

Confederation of Southern America

Federation of Southern America