Ahmad Shah Massoud not assasinated

[Fulcrumvale]

It occurs to me that I don't think this has ever been discussed on AH.com before, so I thought it might be worth taking a crack at. Massoud, of course was the Northern Alliance leader who, in the lead-up to 9/11 appeared to be consolidating power into some sort of cohesive governmental apparatus...before he was assassinated by al-Quaeda on September 9th, 2001. In the view of Ahmed Rashid, "[Massoud] was making a momentous transition from being a parochial leader, often intolerant and sometimes ruthless, to becoming the most important national leader in the country...He had, in short, developed a vision for a future Afghanistan at peace" (21).

Massoud, had he been alive, would have been the logical (and vastly more effectual) candidate for President than the Karzai regime. So, what would have happened to Afghanistan had he lived?

[Coyote Knight]

Originally Posted by Fulcrumvale

It occurs to me that I don't think this has ever been discussed on AH.com before, so I thought it might be worth taking a crack at. Massoud, of course was the Northern Alliance leader who, in the lead-up to 9/11 appeared to be consolidating power into some sort of cohesive governmental apparatus...before he was assassinated by al-Quaeda on September 9th, 2001. In the view of Ahmed Rashid, "[Massoud] was making a momentous transition from being a parochial leader, often intolerant and sometimes ruthless, to becoming the most important national leader in the country...He had, in short, developed a vision for a future Afghanistan at peace" (21).

Massoud, had he been alive, would have been the logical (and vastly more effectual) candidate for President than the Karzai regime. So, what would have happened to Afghanistan had he lived?

I feel that had he lived, Afghanistan would be more like a civil war, with the West militarily helping the Northern Alliance to crush the Taliban. I think this would've lead to a more stable Afghanistan since we'd be supporting a homegrown movement in Afghanistan and in turn would have an Afghanistan that wouldn't be as bloody and with less msitrust of westerners. Massoud was hugely popular in Afghanistan; his living would've helped change Afghanistan for the better. Even Osama Bin Laden said that victory was not possible so long as Massoud was still breathing.

[Euroman26]

Come December 2001 Massoud leads an assult on tora bora and bin Ladin is captured. What then?

[Coyote Knight]

Originally Posted by Euroman26

Come December 2001 Massoud leads an assult on tora bora and bin Ladin is captured. What then?

Just because Osama would've been captured does not necessarily mean that the Taliban would've stopped fighting. We would've remained in Afghanistan (most likely) for longer to continue to stabilize it until it was clear that the Northern Alliance had one. In other words, a much more "winnable" Afghanistan War.

[Berra]

I'm so dull I have to point out I asked this before and I think the conclution was that while Massoud was a good military leader, he wasn't a good politician and he belonged to the wrong tribe.