Ahmad Shah Massoud not assasinated
It occurs to me that I don't think this has ever been discussed on AH.com before, so I thought it might be worth taking a crack at. Massoud, of course was the Northern Alliance leader who, in the lead-up to 9/11 appeared to be consolidating power into some sort of cohesive governmental apparatus...before he was assassinated by al-Quaeda on September 9th, 2001. In the view of Ahmed Rashid, "[Massoud] was making a momentous transition from being a parochial leader, often intolerant and sometimes ruthless, to becoming the most important national leader in the country...He had, in short, developed a vision for a future Afghanistan at peace" (21).
Massoud, had he been alive, would have been the logical (and vastly more effectual) candidate for President than the Karzai regime. So, what would have happened to Afghanistan had he lived?