Populist party suceeds
WI Bryan's Populists not coopted by Dems in 1896, win the presidency.
I think it would be 3 party US - Republicans pick up the business wing of the Northern Demo party. Populists pick up the Socialists. Democrats linger on as a regional party of white supremacy plus the urban Irish (Rum, Romanism and Rebellion) but with a disproportionate strength in Congress because of their regional bases.
The three parties have VERY fluctuating memberships as the Progressives go
back and forth between Populists and Republicans while many Southern
Populists alternately fight the local Dems as part of rainbow coalition and
try to take them over in the name of white supremacy.
Essentially you get a period of class warfare, rampant strikes and riots,
say 5-10K dead / yr 1896 - 1916. You also get the New Deal piecemeal over
those years. Some capital flight but more than compensated by effects of
more even income distribution by quintiles and regions.
Finance capital, Wall Street and the trusts are weaker. Main Street and the
economy as a whole is stronger.
Externally, no Spanish American War. We take arbitration after the Maine.
Cuba transfers to a US terretory. Spain keep the rest of their pacific possesions. Puerto Rico and cuba thus becomes part of the US. The Philippines doesn't become part of the USA. Without the loss of the Philippines the Spanish keep the rest of their Pacific Empire.
US Carib interventions are minimized and show more care for local
nationalism and populist local politicans. However, TR does build his canal
after his election in 1904.
No US intrevention in Vera Cruz in Mexico in 1914. Continual US support for
Mex revolutionaries rather than US capitalists. Intervention still happens
in 1916 but briefer and aimed at driving Villa away from the frontier rather
than his 'surpression'.
DuPont and Morgan not allowed to drag US into WWI.
US entry (if it comes) is bought and paid for as Italy in 1915.