Turning Point: 1848

[RCTFI]

Recently, my family played host to a house guest from Germany. When I attempted to describe the idea of alternate history to him, he imediatly began to talk about the 1848 liberal revolutions in Europe, and how the world would have been much better off if they had succeded.

Of course, this got me thinking - what would the actual implications have been if the liberal forces had triumphed in 1848? While I did study the 1848 Revolutions in school, I am rather ignorant as to what their goals were - what were the ideologies of the revolutionaries, beyond the fact that they were liberal? How would they have executed their ideological goals? What sort of societies would they have established?

The list goes on, of course. But the question remains the same - what sort of impact would a victory on the part of the liberal revolutionaries in 1848 have had on the course of history?

(For the sake of arguement, let it be assumed that their 1848 victories are complete everywhere where serious movements of that nature came anywhere near to victory in OTL.)

[Bear Flag Oligarch]

The German Empire would come into creation 23 years earlier, also it depends if the Großdeutschland or Kleindeutsche solutions were used. if the latter was implemented then the empire would be similar to OTL's, whereas the former would include some or all of the Austrian Empire.

[Nicksplace27]

I think an earlier united german republic would be unstable enough to fall under a military despot much like Napoleon. Maybe Bismark or someone else, but this massive Germany would cause a huge war in the 1850's and 60's.

[Antanas]

German empire, not republic under emperor Friedrich Wilhelm IV INDEPENDENCE OF hUNGARY, UNIFICATION OF Italy under king Charles Albert

[LordInsane]

Earlier Independence of Hungary and Earlier United Italy are two other effects.
By combining Earlier Hungary with Earlier Germany, the Grossdeutsche Lösung becomes more plausible then OTL, since the Habsburg Empire won't have as much territory outside the Confederation (the Grossdeutsche Lösung was basically that all the parts of the Habsburg state inside the Confederation would be a part of Germany. Mind you, that includes Bohemia-Moravia). Of course, this Germany will have to sieze Elsass in a war with France...

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by Nicksplace27

I think an earlier united german republic would be unstable enough to fall under a military despot much like Napoleon. Maybe Bismark or someone else, but this massive Germany would cause a huge war in the 1850's and 60's.

Would it cause a huge war by trying to conquer others or would the others gang up on it b/c they're afraid of it?

Of course, the former might happen for internal political reasons. In my story, the liberal leaders of the Revolution are afraid of a counterrevolution by the military leaders of the incorporated states and whatever sub-kings managed to survive and so they try to give them something to do by taking Alsace-Lorraince from France in the name of nationalism.

Things don't work out very well.

[carlton_bach]

I think the best-case scenario for Germany is the rebels succeeding in some areas and failing in others, leading to a consitutional (possibly republican) 'Germany' and monarchic German-speaking states (I think the most likely survivor despots are Prussia, Austria, Bavaria and Saxony). IMO the idea of compromising with the monarchist party backed by Russia was never a realistic prospect. That would create continually simmering resentment as 'Germany' does, of course, represent the desires of many in the monarchies. It will need a powerful friend, which might be France (I don't think Britain is prepared to go there, and Russia is just unthinkable).

Could be interesting later on.

[Susano]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

I think the best-case scenario for Germany is the rebels succeeding in some areas and failing in others, leading to a consitutional (possibly republican) 'Germany' and monarchic German-speaking states (I think the most likely survivor despots are Prussia, Austria, Bavaria and Saxony). IMO the idea of compromising with the monarchist party backed by Russia was never a realistic prospect. That would create continually simmering resentment as 'Germany' does, of course, represent the desires of many in the monarchies. It will need a powerful friend, which might be France (I don't think Britain is prepared to go there, and Russia is just unthinkable).

A disunited Germany is never the best-case scenario for Germany. And I dont think Germany would need a backer, I think it can back itself on its own. Russia is of coruse indeed a problem - if we assume Prussia falls to the liberal Germany and the Austrian Empire is split by its nationalities, then Russia is the last bastion of the European reaction. But even with a plentyful fifth column inside Germany I dont think it can do much. Though it does make a good case for why Austria needs to fall and hence why a Greater German Solution is needed - Russia plus Austria as enemies would be a bit much...

It shouldnt be forgotten that constitutional monarchy was not only a compromise, but the ideology of the majority of the 1848rs. Only a radical fringe wanted a republic. Hence its instrumental for teh 1848 movement to stay together that indeed a constitutional moanrchy is established. Also, the German Monarchs would be in a bad position: If we assume 1848 has "won", then too unruly monarchs might simply get replaced, and if Russia starts backing them they can easily be discredited as enemies of Germany...

Originally Posted by Bear Flag Oligarch

The German Empire would come into creation 23 years earlier, also it depends if the Großdeutschland or Kleindeutsche solutions were used. if the latter was implemented then the empire would be similar to OTL's,

No it wouldnt at all be similar. 1848 was a nationalist-demcoratic revolution. Instead of the mix of aristocracy with democratic elements as IOTL, wed have a full democracy, with the monarchs as constitutional figureheads. Hence its also wrong to say the German Empire would come into existance 23 years later, it wouldnt be the same Empire (and really, its more correct to say the German Empire is recreated).

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by Susano

A disunited Germany is never the best-case scenario for Germany. And I dont think Germany would need a backer, I think it can back itself on its own. Russia is of coruse indeed a problem - if we assume Prussia falls to the liberal Germany and the Austrian Empire is split by its nationalities, then Russia is the last bastion of the European reaction. But even with a plentyful fifth column inside Germany I dont think it can do much. Though it does make a good case for why Austria needs to fall and hence why a Greater German Solution is needed - Russia plus Austria as enemies would be a bit much...

It shouldnt be forgotten that constitutional monarchy was not only a compromise, but the ideology of the majority of the 1848rs. Only a radical fringe wanted a republic. Hence its instrumental for teh 1848 movement to stay together that indeed a constitutional moanrchy is established. Also, the German Monarchs would be in a bad position: If we assume 1848 has "won", then too unruly monarchs might simply get replaced, and if Russia starts backing them they can easily be discredited as enemies of Germany...

That's the problem - I don't think you can get either Prussia or Austria to *be* a constitutional monarchy in any sense that the revolutionaries could live with. Austria-Hungary has Russia on its side at this point, so its survival is almost guaranteed. Now, if Prussia fell to the constitutional side, Germany would be an instant great power. But I don't see how that can be done against the will of its military, its nobility, and its king.

[Fatstalin]

Now, if Prussia fell to the constitutional side, Germany would be an instant great power. But I don't see how that can be done against the will of its military, its nobility, and its king.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

In Berlin crowds of people gathered their demands culminating in an "address to the king". King Frederick William IV, overwhelmed by this pressure, yielded verbally to all the demonstrators' demands, including parliamentary elections, a constitution, and freedom of the press. He even promised that "Prussia was to be merged forthwith into Germany."


However, on March 18, a large demonstration occurred and two shots fired by soldiers led to an escalation of tensions. Barricades were erected, fighting started, and blood flowed until troops were ordered to retreat a day later, leaving hundreds dead. Afterwards, Frederick William attempted to reassure the public that the reorganization of his government would proceed, and the king also approved the idea of arming the citizens. On March 21, he paraded through the streets of Berlin to the cemetery where the civil victims were buried, accompanied by some ministers and generals, all wearing the revolutionary tricolor of black, red, and gold which form today's flag of Germany.

Provided this excerpt is correct, Frederick Wilhelm IV, having heard the fate of Louis-Phillipe in France, bows to the pressure of the revolutionaries and accepts their more moderate demands once it becomes apparent the army can no longer restore order. However, the Junkers are not permanently defeated at this occasion.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

General von Wrangel led the troops who recaptured Berlin for the old powers, and King Frederick William IV of Prussia immediately rejoined the old forces.

If you can prevent a conservative resurgence and prevent the Prussian army from re-taking Berlin, Frederick Wilhelm would likely remain cowed and either abdicate, spawning even more chaos in the wake of his departure, or grudgingly agree to take the crown of a united Germany from the Frankfurt Parliament. I suppose this would not be too difficult to pursue (as the state of the Prussian army in 1848 was quite dismal; the Humiliation of Olmutz the most pertinent reminder of Prussia's neglect of her armies since the Napoleonic Era). The problem, though, lies in maintaining such an arrangement.

Provided things go as in OTL in Austria, a united Germany is likely doomed and a previous state of affairs restored (although Prussia will likely have to accept a harsher peace for supporting the liberal movement) under the jackboot of Austrian and Russian armies. However, if we assume things went differently in Austria and Italy (the Habsburgs, like in Berlin, fail to crush the demonstrations in Vienna and Lajos Kossuth is, thus, able to maintain an advantage, while violent revolutions in Italy spawn Venetian, Lombard, and Roman Republics that the Austrians are unable to control), it could buy some time for the Germans to get their house into order. Also, to keep the Russians off their backs, let's say the chaos in Austria spreads to Poland, triggering another uprising akin to the one in 1830. Provided the Poles conduct themselves competently and with the same fanaticism, it would take some time for the Russians to stamp it out, preventing military aid from reaching Austria, thus making the situation even worse for the conservatives.

By the time the Habsburgs and the Russians recover (provided Kossuth and the Maygars do not succeed), Germany should have at least gathered itself into somewhat of an organized fashion, with a partially united (but very divided) army. Of course, it would probably be without competent commanders for a time, the majority of experienced officers Junkers or other nobility and its conduct would fair poorly at first against a veteran Russian army (the Austrians could likely provide only a token effort at this point having been reduced after putting down so many different revolts) but, as the French proved against the Second Coalition, there's always a possibility to turn things around. Eventually battle-hardened commanders would move to the fore and, Germany's industrial potential harnessed, the new nation could very well repel Russia's assault and enter into an uneasy truce (Russia's army, too, was no longer the impressive force which had beaten Napoleon back to Paris).

As of this point, with a Republican France, Liberal Germany, and hand-full of new bastions for liberalism in Italy (including an enlarged Sardinia), the Concert of Europe lies entirely in shatters and the next following years are marked by a chaotic state of diplomatic affairs as new alliance blocs form. The Second Industrial Revolution and intense waves of Nationalism to come will ensure the next war will be an incredibly bloody affair.

[Susano]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

That's the problem - I don't think you can get either Prussia or Austria to *be* a constitutional monarchy in any sense that the revolutionaries could live with. Austria-Hungary has Russia on its side at this point, so its survival is almost guaranteed. Now, if Prussia fell to the constitutional side, Germany would be an instant great power. But I don't see how that can be done against the will of its military, its nobility, and its king.

*shrugs* The WI is 1848 winning. So, also the Hungarians, never mind the odds. Maybe the Russians arrive to late and find a well-entrenched indendant state, or a convinient plague/famine/comet strike hits Russia just in time, something like that. That would tend towards ASB, but you might say that about the overall WI anyways, so why not use slightly ASBish methods.

With Hungary independant remnaint Austria is in too much chaos to do anything for a while, while Prussia... well, theres the second ASB moment. Prussia pretty muchc leared the house in Germany after the revolutions, and changing that could be very, very difficult. I agree its near impossible to have the revolution take hold in Prussia itself for a longer time. Maybe Prussia does attempt its interventions as per OTL, but the for some miraclous reason more coordinated other German states, using levee en masse, defy the Prussian troops even more miracously, and then simply outright conquer Prussia...

Cue the House of Meran as German Emperors

Originally Posted by Fatstalin

If you can prevent a conservative resurgence and prevent the Prussian army from re-taking Berlin, Frederick Wilhelm would likely remain cowed and either abdicate, spawning even more chaos in the wake of his departure, or grudgingly agree to take the crown of a united Germany from the Frankfurt Parliament. I suppose this would not be too difficult to pursue (as the state of the Prussian army in 1848 was quite dismal; the Humiliation of Olmutz the most pertinent reminder of Prussia's neglect of her armies since the Napoleonic Era). The problem, though, lies in maintaining such an arrangement.

Olmütz was a political defeat, not a military one. And even the best army in the world could not have won against Austria and Russia combined, as the matter was. More importantly, though, Prussia itself has lost interst in the Erfurt project, so it was a very political decisions, and had nothing to do with the military. The military, as it was, was the reason the Erfurt negotiations even took place: It had intervened mroe or less in every German state and surpessed each and every revolution. The Prussian military at this point was in quite a good state.

Yes, Frederick WIlliam IV did temporarily bow to the revolution, but indeed only temporarily. One shouldnt overempathise that, it was more like control of teh capital was lost to street riots for some time, but as soon as the military arrived things were over.