Sino-Russian War?

[Hannibal.Caesar]

What would be the effects of a war between Communist China and the USSR during the Cold War? I think a short spit (a la the Sino-Indian War or the Sino-Vietnamese War) would be the most possible, but it would of course require a deeper and much more vigorous Sino-Soviet Split.

PODs aside, what would have happened? Where would the major fighting have taken place, and who would have been the most victorious? How would this have affected Cold War politics, and how would the West and NATO have viewed such a conflict?

[Trotsky]

The United States, obviously, would support the People's Republic of China, as they stand to reap big benefits from a rift in the communist bloc (not so monolithic as the red-baiters claimed it was, is it?). Nixon would still try to visit Mao. The Republic of China might lose its seat on the UN Security Council to the People's Republic a year or two earlier; likewise with Washington's recognition of the Beijing regime and cutting most ties with the Taipei movement.

If the Soviet Union is taking it on the chin badly, it could boomerang into deep rifts with the Warsaw Pact. The Eastern bloc might re-evaluate the value of having an "alliance" with Moscow, and may seek to reassert themselves on the international stage.

Where would the fighting take place? Mostly along the Amur river in the northeast, maybe some in Mongolia and in areas immediately west, but since it would be difficult for China (still reeling from the Cultural Revolution then taking place) to logistically support a front in that area, the USSR might stand to reap some benefit there.

Chinese internal politics: I wonder how Lin Biao and other military figures would view Mao during this war. If it goes badly for China we might see a coup similar to the one Lin Biao was alleged to have participated in before his airplane "accident" in September 1971.

[Wendell]

Northeast Asia is a sheet of glass after both sides start using nukes against the other. This hastens the fall of the Warsaw Pact, as many East Europeans have been sacrificed in the war against China.

[Hannibal.Caesar]

Originally Posted by Wendell

Northeast Asia is a sheet of glass after both sides start using nukes against the other. This hastens the fall of the Warsaw Pact, as many East Europeans have been sacrificed in the war against China.

Like I said, IMHO I don't see a war of this kind being much more than a momentary spit, however interesting the possibilities. I don't think either side would be willing to nuke each other in this case.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Hannibal.Caesar

Like I said, IMHO I don't see a war of this kind being much more than a momentary spit, however interesting the possibilities. I don't think either side would be willing to nuke each other in this case.

While true, I cannot imagine much changing from a minor border skirmish, as such things happened in our TL.

[panzerjay]

i dont think a nuke war is possible without one or both parties suffering major internal pressure to up the anty. and the soviets would know if the chicom is preparing to launch an attack cuz chicom nukes needed to be fueled before launch. advantage kermlin

[Earling]

Soviets annihilate, rout or just defeat the initial Chinese force.
Chinese threaten to expand the war and bring up more divisions.
Soviets threaten nuclear strikes.
Chinese take a look at their own limited capacity for nuclear reprisal and swiftly agree to talks with regard to cooling off from the incident.

Thats pretty much what happened in OTL wasn't it?

I suppose its possible the Soviets have to use a nuclear strike or two to get the message across, hopefully the USA has the sense to stay well out of it. Otherwise obvious everyone is quickly dead. If the Chinese nuclear programme is far along, this nuclear strike will obvious be total as the Soviets seek to ensure there shall be no retaliation.

[panzerjay]

Originally Posted by Earling

Soviets annihilate, rout or just defeat the initial Chinese force.
Chinese threaten to expand the war and bring up more divisions.
Soviets threaten nuclear strikes.
Chinese take a look at their own limited capacity for nuclear reprisal and swiftly agree to talks with regard to cooling off from the incident.

Thats pretty much what happened in OTL wasn't it?

this only works if rationality plays out within chinese leadership and there is not some curt lemay type minimizing losses and hyperbole'n the gains to the point of converting.

[Berra]

I'v read somewhere that the US didn't want a war due to the risks of spillover. But how could such a war really spill over. Both sides would be fighting a mighty enemy and a second front wouldn't make that much sense.

Another question is the nukes. I don't think China have had enough, at least when the war was most likely, ie during the border skirmishes. How about Soviet? (I don't think a war could have happend much earlier, how about later?)