1918: Germany attacks in Italy instead of France

[Max Sinister]

I'm just reading Hemingway's book "A farewell to arms" and thought about this:

1917 Germany had knocked out Russia with the peace treaty of Brest-Litovsk and tried to win with a last offensive in the West. Without success, as we know: they conquered a few square miles of land, but then lost against several million well-equipped and fresh American troops.

But WI they had chosen to attack the Italian front instead? In 1917 Austrian and German troops already managed to break the Italian lines and almost conquered Venice, before they were stopped with French and English help. They could have stood by the Siegfriedlinie (defense line during 1917) in France, transported their troops from the East to Northern Italy (that's a shorter way than to France anyway) and attack the weakest link (sorry, Italy).

How would that turn out? I doubt they could win WW1 either way, but if they managed not only to break the lines (they did so in France, so they certainly could do in Italy too), but to conquer Venice, Milan or even the old capital Turin, then they could do better than in OTL.

Only disadvantage: They can never conquer France before America has landed even more troops, but they couldn't in OTL either.

Advantage: They could attack earlier (shorter ways and better weather), and the Allies would need some time to send help to Italy.

So, what would happen next?