Dukakis wins in 1988, loses in 1992.

[Dave]

At one point in 1988 Dukakis held a commanding lead, but squandered it by various gaffes, inopportune photos, and no clear response to the Willie Horton add. Lets say he wins. Things for the most part go as per ATL, until the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Dukakis does not send military aid, oil skyrockets, the economy goes in the crapper, Perot runs even stronger, and the Democrats end up running third. The main question is, who do the Republicans nominate? Almost any candidate could win in this scenario.

[Mr. Evangelical]

I say either Dole, Rumsfeld, and Bush Sr. seem like the best choices to defeat Mr. Dukakis.

Do any US troops go to Desert Storm? Just asking, because if not, my dad may be in better physical shape than OTL.

[Broohah]

Yeah, it would have probably come down to either George H.W. Bush or Bob Dole.

[Mr. Evangelical]

Originally Posted by Broohah

Yeah, it would have probably come down to either George H.W. Bush or Bob Dole.

I wonder what a Dole/Bush or a Dole/Rumsfeld Presidency would be like.

What would the 1988 election electorial map look like?

[Electric Monk]

Hmm. Dukakis's lead was very artificial, but yeah sure there's a chance he could win in '88.


As for 1992…

Governor Pete Wilson is an outside chance (maybe he stays a Senator, in the ATL, so he isn't just into his first year of being Governor) and there's a few interesting Republicans hanging around.

I'd say Dole is the frontrunner, but given his '88 and '96 campaigns his chances of winning in '92 primaries aren't that great.

Hmm. I like Wilson, I imagine Senator Phil Gramm runs (and loses), it's too early for Weld, Governor Campbell of South Carolina is an interesting possibility, Governor Gregg of New Hampshire is a maybe, Pete du Pont is a maybe, and Lamar Alexander is a maybe.

I think I'll vote for Governor Campbell to win the primaries. He can probably beat Dukakis as well. Who's his VP?

Originally Posted by Mr. Evangelical

I wonder what a Dole/Bush or a Dole/Rumsfeld Presidency would be like.

Seriously man, Dole and Bush really hated each other…*neither is ever going to offer the other the VP slot.

[Mr. Evangelical]

Originally Posted by Electric Monk

Seriously man, Dole and Bush really hated each other…*neither is ever going to offer the other the VP slot.

Alrighty then, would Dole/Rumsfeld work?

Make Dole more serious and he could easily beat Dukakis.

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by Mr. Evangelical

Alrighty then, would Dole/Rumsfeld work?

Make Dole more serious and he could easily beat Dukakis.

Originally Posted by Dave

God, I think anyone with a pulse could win under the circumstances I outlined. I'll go with Dole. I think it's just his turn. As for VP, it would have to someone relatively young, because of Doles age. He would have more savvy than to select Quayle, Powell is always iffy because of his desire for privacy, McCain would only be 55, I'll go with McCain. Dole gets 45%, Perot gets 30%, and the Dems come in third with 25%.

(Note: knowing they have little chance of winning anyway, the Dems renominate Dukakis to preserve the rising stars for the next battle.)

Oh Dole could win the general against Dukakis, but it's winning the primaries that are tricky for him… especially because he won't have the overwhelming "it's my turn / Clinton is going to win so who cares" of 1996 and that he just ran for the second time and failed miserably in 1988.

I honestly think it's just too fresh for Dole (in some senses his '88 loss still haunted him in '96) and I think he'll stay in the Senate, and be quite happy as Senate Majority Leader when the Republicans take over Congress a little earlier in 1992.

As for McCain it's far too close to the Keating Five scandal for him.

Perot ain't getting 30% (20%, though, is probable), the Dems will get at least 35%, and the Republicans will win in a landslide. (Heck even if Dukakis has half as bad a a scenario as outlined, he'll probably lose.)


I still like Governor Campbell, and figure he probably goes with a national security Republican. Of the Senators if Pete Wilson doesn't make the run for Govenor he's great—from California, served on Senate Armed Services Committee, and was a strong advocate for a tougher more interventionist military.

Assuming butterflies change his run for Governor (and he doesn't run, or loses quickly in the Presidential race) I'd say Senator Wilson is basically perfect for Campbell.

Senator Richard Lugar, Indiana, would be solid.

Senator Slade Gorton is looking pretty good: influential member of the Armed Services Committee, was a colonel in the USAF, and comes from Washington state.

Senator William Cohen, Maine, served on both the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Governmental Affairs Committee and was a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

[Dave]

He doesn't send anybody. Not a single man. Kuwait is absorbed into Iraq, The Saudis get pissed, the Iranians start building up for another war, and oil skyrockets.

I vote Libertarian. I normally don't go for foreign involvement, but in this case Big Daddy Bush made the right call. I backed his play 100%.

[Mr. Evangelical]

Originally Posted by Dave

He doesn't send anybody. Not a single man. Kuwait is absorbed into Iraq, The Saudis get pissed, the Iranians start building up for another war, and oil skyrockets.

I vote Libertarian. I normally don't go for foreign involvement, but in this case Big Daddy Bush made the right call. I backed his play 100%.

That effect wouldn't make the fact the my dad is in better health override the oil problem. Dukakis would be an utter idiot to do nothing. Just a question, is Lloyd Brensten still his VP?

OOC: May I make the Dukakis victory map please?

[Dave]

I haven't come up with a victory map, but at one point he did have a 17 point lead. Give him California, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Maryland, all states he lost by less than five points. Add that to what he won in OTL and it comes to 21 states, and 272 electoral votes.

[Mr. Evangelical]

Originally Posted by Dave

I haven't come up with a victory map, but at one point he did have a 17 point lead. Give him California, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Maryland, all states he lost by less than five points. Add that to what he won in OTL and it comes to 21 states, and 272 electoral votes.

How did he lose all of that in OTL?

[Dave]

He was an inept campaigner, whereas Bush had a great team around him. He didn't respond to attacks, and usually came off as spineless. In this ATL, his campaign managers run everything for him, and he just barely manages to pull this one out. He was called "The Technocrat". Bentsen was put on the ticket largely to provide a pair of balls. After the election, one testicle would be surgically removed from Bentsen and implanted into Dukakis, which hopefully would have made him a man.

[Mr. Evangelical]

Lol okay.

Who do you want to defeat Dukakis in 1992?

[Dave]

God, I think anyone with a pulse could win under the circumstances I outlined. I'll go with Dole. I think it's just his turn. As for VP, it would have to someone relatively young, because of Doles age. He would have more savvy than to select Quayle, Powell is always iffy because of his desire for privacy, McCain would only be 55, I'll go with McCain. Dole gets 45%, Perot gets 30%, and the Dems come in third with 25%.

(Note: knowing they have little chance of winning anyway, the Dems renominate Dukakis to preserve the rising stars for the next battle.)

[Mr. Evangelical]

Originally Posted by Dave

God, I think anyone with a pulse could win under the circumstances I outlined. I'll go with Dole. I think it's just his turn. As for VP, it would have to someone relatively young, because of Doles age. He would have more savvy than to select Quayle, Powell is always iffy because of his desire for privacy, McCain would only be 55, I'll go with McCain. Dole gets 45%, Perot gets 30%, and the Dems come in third with 25%.

(Note: knowing they have little chance of winning anyway, the Dems renominate Dukakis to preserve the rising stars for the next battle.)

I think the best option for the GOP is Dole/McCain, and if Dole does well, he can win again in 1996.