WI: No Lend-Lease to the Soviets

[David Floyd]

What if the Soviets are not able to reach a Lend Lease agreement, and as a consequence, the US and Britain do NOT ship them thousands of tank, planes, trucks, etc., millions of tons of food, hundreds of thousands of uniforms, tons of aviation fuel, etc.?

Does this change the outcome of the Eastern Front?

[Theodoric]

I don't think it would have changed the course of the entire war; perhaps a skirmish or two lost, more famine (which would be a greater problem), etc. The tanks and planes were very dated though, and hardly made a difference, nor did most uniforms last through the winter.

Not saying that it didn't help, but almost everything except for the jeeps and the food were obsolete and/or not suitable for the theater.

[aktarian]

SU is far less effective, specially post-Stalingrad. No LL means SU has to produce everything and not be able to concentrate on tanks and arty.

RA takes much higher losses but grinds on however they spend themselves before reaching Berlin, IMO somewhere in Poland or thereabouts

[Chengar Qordath]

Originally Posted by Theodoric

I don't think it would have changed the course of the entire war; perhaps a skirmish or two lost, more famine (which would be a greater problem), etc. The tanks and planes were very dated though, and hardly made a difference, nor did most uniforms last through the winter.

Not saying that it didn't help, but almost everything except for the jeeps and the food were obsolete and/or not suitable for the theater.

The military equipment from Lend-Lease wasn't all that useful, but I think you're massively underestimating how important things like locomotives, jeeps, aviation fuel, and food were. The Soviets will either have serious logistical problems or they'll have to significantly cut military production so that they can actually ship what they do produce to the frontlines, not to mention keeping the army from starving to death in the field.

Given that the Germans also had occupied a lot of Russia's best farming areas, I'm not sure they would be able to avoid a serious food shortage without some kind of outside help. Famine in the countryside would be a big problem for the USSR; it's part of what brought the Tsars down in World War I after all.

[Corbell Mark IV]

Could Stalin, furious over a complete lack of support from his "allies" seek a seperate peace?

[Blue Max]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

Could Stalin, furious over a complete lack of support from his "allies" seek a seperate peace?

Its one of the things he used to bully the Allies into getting his way, but I doubt it. For one thing, Hitler would not have accepted a seperate peace if he feels like he can grab all of Russia. Based on the German Performance in the Eastern Front, this is probably unlikely until at least 1944, where Germany is clearly losing the war (or on a similar situation in an alternate timeline).

And there is an excellent reason for the Soviets to fight on, even if they have to draft women to do it--the Germans have essentially committed themselves to killing the Slavic peoples. This, obviously, precludes a peace deal.

More to the point though, the Soviets are going to hang on, one way or another. Even if the Germans can defeat the Red Army as a conventional force across Russia, they still get partisan hell across a huge area. These tactics wore down Japan's army in China, they will wear down the German Wehrmacht as well.

The Soviets will pay a high price for no lend-lease--a share of Postwar Europe, perhaps another three or four million casualties, but eventually the Germans will get beaten by the power of the Sun and this they have no counter to.

[Theodoric]

Originally Posted by Chengar Qordath

The military equipment from Lend-Lease wasn't all that useful, but I think you're massively underestimating how important things like locomotives, jeeps, aviation fuel, and food were. The Soviets will either have serious logistical problems or they'll have to significantly cut military production so that they can actually ship what they do produce to the frontlines, not to mention keeping the army from starving to death in the field.

Given that the Germans also had occupied a lot of Russia's best farming areas, I'm not sure they would be able to avoid a serious food shortage without some kind of outside help. Famine in the countryside would be a big problem for the USSR; it's part of what brought the Tsars down in World War I after all.

Just because I didn't mention it, doesn't mean I don't know about it. I even acknowledged it, without expressing it in a sufficient amount of words.

Well, they're not really just going to starve their population and military to death when there's a war going on; surely, there must be other ways for them to get the required amount of food?

[Derek Jackson]

I wonder if rather more allied troops would die in the West if the Germans had been fighting a weaker USSR.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Derek Jackson

I wonder if rather more allied troops would die in the West if the Germans had been fighting a weaker USSR.

That is likely, probably certain if the western powers operate as in OTL, or possibly even earlier because resources are released due to not supplying the Soviets.

Steve

[Chengar Qordath]

Originally Posted by Theodoric

Just because I didn't mention it, doesn't mean I don't know about it. I even acknowledged it, without expressing it in a sufficient amount of words.

Well, they're not really just going to starve their population and military to death when there's a war going on; surely, there must be other ways for them to get the required amount of food?

I just got the feeling from your comments that no Lend-Lease would only result in "perhaps a skirmish or two lost" that you were underestimating the importance of the non-military hardware part of it, if that's not the case then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

As far as food goes, with their best farmland under German occupation the Soviets are going to have a hard time replacing the lost food production domestically, which is why they needed about 4.5 million tons of Lend-Lease food shipments. They could try developing new farmland (Khrushchev's Virgin Lands campaign showed at least a few good grain harvest could be wrung out of the steppe) but that kind of development would be manpower intensive, something the USSR can hardly afford in the middle of a war. The best solution would be at least a limited decollectivization, but I don't think Stalin would be willing to consider that after all the effort he went to push collectivization through unless the situation was already dire.

[Dean_the_Young]

Russia remains too large to conquer, but at the same time the Russian steamroller (where all transportation from boots to trains and vehicles were made/fueled by US) will certainly not take off. That leaves Germany much more room to send troops back West, while out East the Germans still kill vast swarths of Russians to little or no avail.