Turning Point: 1848

[RCTFI]

Recently, my family played host to a house guest from Germany. When I attempted to describe the idea of alternate history to him, he imediatly began to talk about the 1848 liberal revolutions in Europe, and how the world would have been much better off if they had succeded.

Of course, this got me thinking - what would the actual implications have been if the liberal forces had triumphed in 1848? While I did study the 1848 Revolutions in school, I am rather ignorant as to what their goals were - what were the ideologies of the revolutionaries, beyond the fact that they were liberal? How would they have executed their ideological goals? What sort of societies would they have established?

The list goes on, of course. But the question remains the same - what sort of impact would a victory on the part of the liberal revolutionaries in 1848 have had on the course of history?

(For the sake of arguement, let it be assumed that their 1848 victories are complete everywhere where serious movements of that nature came anywhere near to victory in OTL.)

[Bear Flag Oligarch]

The German Empire would come into creation 23 years earlier, also it depends if the Großdeutschland or Kleindeutsche solutions were used. if the latter was implemented then the empire would be similar to OTL's, whereas the former would include some or all of the Austrian Empire.

[Nicksplace27]

I think an earlier united german republic would be unstable enough to fall under a military despot much like Napoleon. Maybe Bismark or someone else, but this massive Germany would cause a huge war in the 1850's and 60's.

[Antanas]

German empire, not republic under emperor Friedrich Wilhelm IV INDEPENDENCE OF hUNGARY, UNIFICATION OF Italy under king Charles Albert

[LordInsane]

Earlier Independence of Hungary and Earlier United Italy are two other effects.
By combining Earlier Hungary with Earlier Germany, the Grossdeutsche Lösung becomes more plausible then OTL, since the Habsburg Empire won't have as much territory outside the Confederation (the Grossdeutsche Lösung was basically that all the parts of the Habsburg state inside the Confederation would be a part of Germany. Mind you, that includes Bohemia-Moravia). Of course, this Germany will have to sieze Elsass in a war with France...

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by Nicksplace27

I think an earlier united german republic would be unstable enough to fall under a military despot much like Napoleon. Maybe Bismark or someone else, but this massive Germany would cause a huge war in the 1850's and 60's.

Would it cause a huge war by trying to conquer others or would the others gang up on it b/c they're afraid of it?

Of course, the former might happen for internal political reasons. In my story, the liberal leaders of the Revolution are afraid of a counterrevolution by the military leaders of the incorporated states and whatever sub-kings managed to survive and so they try to give them something to do by taking Alsace-Lorraince from France in the name of nationalism.

Things don't work out very well.

[carlton_bach]

I think the best-case scenario for Germany is the rebels succeeding in some areas and failing in others, leading to a consitutional (possibly republican) 'Germany' and monarchic German-speaking states (I think the most likely survivor despots are Prussia, Austria, Bavaria and Saxony). IMO the idea of compromising with the monarchist party backed by Russia was never a realistic prospect. That would create continually simmering resentment as 'Germany' does, of course, represent the desires of many in the monarchies. It will need a powerful friend, which might be France (I don't think Britain is prepared to go there, and Russia is just unthinkable).

Could be interesting later on.

[Susano]

Originally Posted by carlton_bach

I think the best-case scenario for Germany is the rebels succeeding in some areas and failing in others, leading to a consitutional (possibly republican) 'Germany' and monarchic German-speaking states (I think the most likely survivor despots are Prussia, Austria, Bavaria and Saxony). IMO the idea of compromising with the monarchist party backed by Russia was never a realistic prospect. That would create continually simmering resentment as 'Germany' does, of course, represent the desires of many in the monarchies. It will need a powerful friend, which might be France (I don't think Britain is prepared to go there, and Russia is just unthinkable).

A disunited Germany is never the best-case scenario for Germany. And I dont think Germany would need a backer, I think it can back itself on its own. Russia is of coruse indeed a problem - if we assume Prussia falls to the liberal Germany and the Austrian Empire is split by its nationalities, then Russia is the last bastion of the European reaction. But even with a plentyful fifth column inside Germany I dont think it can do much. Though it does make a good case for why Austria needs to fall and hence why a Greater German Solution is needed - Russia plus Austria as enemies would be a bit much...

It shouldnt be forgotten that constitutional monarchy was not only a compromise, but the ideology of the majority of the 1848rs. Only a radical fringe wanted a republic. Hence its instrumental for teh 1848 movement to stay together that indeed a constitutional moanrchy is established. Also, the German Monarchs would be in a bad position: If we assume 1848 has "won", then too unruly monarchs might simply get replaced, and if Russia starts backing them they can easily be discredited as enemies of Germany...

Originally Posted by Bear Flag Oligarch

The German Empire would come into creation 23 years earlier, also it depends if the Großdeutschland or Kleindeutsche solutions were used. if the latter was implemented then the empire would be similar to OTL's,

No it wouldnt at all be similar. 1848 was a nationalist-demcoratic revolution. Instead of the mix of aristocracy with democratic elements as IOTL, wed have a full democracy, with the monarchs as constitutional figureheads. Hence its also wrong to say the German Empire would come into existance 23 years later, it wouldnt be the same Empire (and really, its more correct to say the German Empire is recreated).