Challenge: Apartheid South Africa goes down in flames

[George Carty]

With a post-1970 POD, how could the apartheid regime cling on to the bitter end, so that South Africa (and most of its neighbours) are devastated by war?

[BurningWickerman]

They developed 6 crude nukes which were to be used in the final conclusion of a 'race war.' They have since been destroyed but have the conflict turn into a civil war with rebel tanks/army marching on the capital, and drop the nuke on the main advance.
Civil war turns into genocide (by both sides) and the rest of the nukes dropped. The slaughter will wreck any infrastructure and destroy post-war foreign aid. Nuclear fallout will plague the region for years.

[Agentdark]

Dont forget, South Africa had Chem/Bio weapons as well.

[Fellatio Nelson]

Pre-1991, there is no way NATO/The West will let South Africa fall into ruin or into the hands of USSR/Communist-backed forces.

Its location made it an ideal place from which a lot of international shipping could be threatened, were the Soviets subsequently invited to base a fleet of Backfires and SSNs there, to say nothing of its important natural resources being acquired by a hostile power: for all its faults, the then SA govts. were vehemently anti-communist and the white population obviously as Westernised as any in Europe or N America.

Direct support for the Apartheid regime would have made Western politicians uncomfortable, irrespective of any increased tension with the Soviets, but there are a whole host of ways in which SA would have been helped in combatting any invasion. For exampe, the South African Govt. and certain Americans had a close association during the 1970s/80s Bushfire/Border war. Military support from WP nations would have been vital if any "African" invasion of SA were to stand any chance.

South Africa was and, to some extent, still is, a regional superpower possessing a small blue water navy and a significant airforce vis-a-vis any neighbouring opponent, so they could conduct strikes in bordering regions. Moreover, its white population was militarised through mandatory national service for all males and, given sanctions, had developed an organic defence industry developing tanks, aircraft and attack helicopters... and nuclear weapons.

Chances are a significant portion of the Black population would support the Whites, to say nothing of the wealthier and partially enfranchised Indians and Cape Coloured (mixed race), in such an event: the bulk of the Rhodesian Army fighting Black "freedom" fighters 1965-80 was drawn from amongst the Black majority; there, there were far fewer Whites and even they were never defeated in the field. The SAs have advantage in population, resources and geography.

Of course, and again as happened in the case of Rhodesia in the 1970s, foreign volunteers, most particularly from the UK and Australia given this earlier example and past Imerial/Commonwealth ties, would swell their ranks.

One must also take into account that post-1948 Apartheid was an almost exclusively Afrikaaner-driven policy whereas, on the whole, White SAs of British origin - the slight majority amongst the Whites - were content to grow wealthy in the coastal regions through trade etc. Existing tensions between these two groups - the traditionally "English" mixed Anglo-Afrikaans parts of SA against those Afrikaaners living in the old Boer Republics - could become inflamed were the domestic situation to get out of control.

Personally, I don't think it was any coincidence that Mandela was released and simultaneously far greater international pressure was brought to bear on SA to end Apartheid in 1990-; Apartheid was simply viewed as the lesser of two evils during the Cold War, so post 1991 would have been handled quite differently.

[Marius]

I seriously doubt that a "significant portion" of the black population would support the white government, maybe ten percent maximum. The coloureds and Indians would also not support the government in large numbers. In 1983 when the first elections were held for the tricameral parliament where whites, Indians and coloureds each had separate houses of parliament, the turnout in these communities was less then ten percent. Furthermore, English speaking whites are not a majority of the SA white population, they make up about 40% of the white population. They are also not concentrated on the coast. The largest no. of English speakers is probably in Johannesburg, 500km from the nearest coastline.