Would Germany Ever Split Up Austria-Hungary?

[wiking]

Assuming WW1 doesn't start in 1914 and Franz Ferdinand isn't assassinated, eventually AH is going to run into ethnic troubles.
1916-7 is going to be a bad period for AH, because Franz Josef dies and Franz Ferdinand is going to take the throne. He planned on fighting the Hungarian nobility for control over Hungary either politically or with the military.

So that gets to my question:
Would Germany ever sanction the break up of Austria-Hungary? They were Germany's only ally by 1914 and would likely remain so for decades. Still, it was a juicy target, as Germany could get Austria (including all of the German-speaking areas denied to it IOTL in 1919 like South Tyrol, Sopron, Pressburg, and better borders with Slovenia), Bohemia, and Moravia. Russia could get Galica, Romania Bukowina and Transsylvania, Serbia can get Bosnia-Herzogovina, Slovenia and Croatia can form their own country, while Italy gets nothing, because really, no one respected them, nor cozied to their idea of Empire. Hungary loses a lot, but keeps Slovakia minus Pressburg.

This also means Russia can become friendlier with Germany...if they were willing to write off the Czechs. It makes Romania much friendlier once it has Transsylvania, it somewhat neutralizes Serbia's demands, while also getting Croatia-Slovenia and Hungary as economic client states.
Italy probably becomes hostile, but is virtually no threat to Germany thanks to the Alps, even in South Tyrol.

The Habsburg reduced realm can join Germany as a 5th kingdom, leaving them to govern themselves locally, but integrating them economically. Still this introduces lots of Catholics and increasingly socialists into the German Empire, which the Prussia nobility did not like, but the increasingly powerful Pan-German (Alldeutsch) groups in the middle class had no problem with that, but rather wanted a 'greater Germany'.

So at what point, if ever, would Germany take a hand in breaking up Austria-Hungary?

[rast]

1. They would try to keep the corpse look alive as long as possible.
2. If that doesn't help, they'll try to prop up the Hungarians as new masters.
3. If that fails, they may accept Austria, Tyrolia and the Sudeten Germans into the Reich - or rather try to create a state from these remnants (depends whether the Reich has already become social democrat dominated or is still run by the old elites).
4. Nobody will get any friendlier to Germany by carving up a piece of the old empire. In fact, the War of Habsburg Succession may replace the Great War.

[yourworstnightmare]

For this you would have to have the Junkers less afraid of accepting more Catholics into Germany. Thus they may be willing to avoid the Zombie in the Middle of Europe dissolve, and they gobbling up the German speaking parts (and probably the Czech and Slovenian parts too).

[wiking]

Originally Posted by yourworstnightmare

For this you would have to have the Junkers less afraid of accepting more Catholics into Germany. Thus they may be willing to avoid the Zombie in the Middle of Europe dissolve, and they gobbling up the German speaking parts (and probably the Czech and Slovenian parts too).

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by wiking

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

We must also remember that the German Austrians at this point still were suspicious of Germany (Protestant Junker Hell hole under the wrong emperor), however the Junkers sidelined, and Germany getting more democratic, while Austria isn't could change that.

[Drakan]

It all depends on the support of the Austrian people.

[lukedalton]

Germany will initially support the A-H against the Magyar rebellion/crackdown, but this risk to become the spark for a Great war analogue with the various nations fight for the corpse of A-H (and maybe the Ottoman Empire).
If all is avoided and a diplomatic solution is chosen, well Berlin with a lot of reluctance will take Austria (plus Tyrol) and Sudetenland and will try to inglobe the Czech, probably will try to reform the Triple Alliance with Italy (the big problem were with A-H not Germany) and Hungary so she will prop up their claims.

[Xavier]

Originally Posted by wiking

Would the Socialists forcing a constitution on the Kaiser at some point in the late 10's/1920's have given them the ability to bypass the Junkers?

1. The German Empire had a constitution
2. Juridically speaking, the powers granted to the German Emperor aren't much, if any, greater than those still granted to the current King of the Belgians or Queen of the UK.

The difference in actual power is mostly psychological, since a legislature which can convene of its own will and which has budget control and legislative initiative has the executive by the balls if only it can find a willing majority to do so. Assuming of course, that said executive can't use the military to, illegally in this case, keep control of things.

[Snake Featherston]

Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

[wiking]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by wiking

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

Asprey's book on Hindenburg and Ludendorff. Specifically he references this in the chapters detailing the end of the war in 1918. It was supposed to be a war leading to a sanctioned breakup and occupation.

[Chris S]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

Originally Posted by wiking

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Asprey's book on Hindenburg and Ludendorff. Specifically he references this in the chapters detailing the end of the war in 1918. It was supposed to be a war leading to a sanctioned breakup and occupation.

Snake, is there any more information you can provide on this? Were these plans by Hindenburg and Ludendorff only developed after WWI began or were they part of a set of war plans from before 1914 that were adapted by the pair? Because without WWI Hindenburg would probably have still been in retirement and Ludendorff would probably still have been kept out of the General Staff (having been dismissed from it) with the command of the 39th Fusiliers.

[Clandango]

Have Germany trade the eastern portion of East Galicia in exchange for the Polish Border Strip and perhaps some southern portion of Poland, which might then be unified with parts of Moravia, while Bohemia is slowly Germanized or evicted while their places are taken by Transyvlanian Swabians, Banatians, Volga Germans, and the like. Not realistic, but what can you do? They also need an Adriatic port.

[Tongera]

Originally Posted by Clandango

Have Germany trade the eastern portion of East Galicia in exchange for the Polish Border Strip and perhaps some southern portion of Poland, which might then be unified with parts of Moravia, while Bohemia is slowly Germanized or evicted while their places are taken by Transyvlanian Swabians, Banatians, Volga Germans, and the like. Not realistic, but what can you do? They also need an Adriatic port.

The Adriatic port could be part of Slovenia or Venice? That is with a land route to Germany mind, which i am assuming has Austria with South Tirol. Although the people already there.

[Clandango]

Originally Posted by Tongera

The Adriatic port could be part of Slovenia or Venice? That is with a land route to Germany mind, which i am assuming has Austria with South Tirol. Although the people already there.

The Austrian Littoral was the area with the coastline. I was thinking of Rijeka/Fiume, which was populated heavilly by Italians but jointly administered(sort of) by the Croats and Hungarians. Moving in Germans to form a corridor to the seven hundred year German settled Gottschee County might... Something. Anyways, how do you guys think it would go over to have many independent German states in the Balkans for the people who had settled there centuries before?

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Clandango

The Austrian Littoral was the area with the coastline. I was thinking of Rijeka/Fiume, which was populated heavilly by Italians but jointly administered(sort of) by the Croats and Hungarians. Moving in Germans to form a corridor to the seven hundred year German settled Gottschee County might... Something.

IF Germany is going to split up AH, they would try to do it in such a way that Italy comes out as an ally. That means that Italy gets most or all of Küstenland, Trentino (or even all of Southern Tyrol), probably all of Dalmatia. So Germany can only get a port on the Med in Fiume or South on the Croatian coastline which IOTL belonged to Hungary (probably with Italy getting the islands before it to make it a commercial harbour only).

Originally Posted by Clandango

Anyways, how do you guys think it would go over to have many independent German states in the Balkans for the people who had settled there centuries before?

I doubt if this would be possible. The Germans there have no continuous settlement area, their settlements are predominantly rural, you'd have a lot of micro-states with a still ethnically mixed population. In any case, most of those micro-states would evolve on Hungarian territory. IF the Germans are about to partition AH, they'd side with Hungarian nationalists during that and these would want to keep as much from Hungary as possible.

It largely depends on the Hungarians and the AH war gains, but IF AH is partitioned, I see two options as the most likely: keeping Hungary as it was under Hapsburg rule (meaning that a smaller state now needs German support) or partitioning Hungary with the OTL frontiers of 1944 (or when that was), which should . Galicia would go to Poland (I assume that Poland was formed as a puppet after WWI).

[Clandango]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

IF Germany is going to split up AH, they would try to do it in such a way that Italy comes out as an ally. That means that Italy gets most or all of Küstenland, Trentino (or even all of Southern Tyrol), probably all of Dalmatia. So Germany can only get a port on the Med in Fiume or South on the Croatian coastline which IOTL belonged to Hungary (probably with Italy getting the islands before it to make it a commercial harbour only).



I doubt if this would be possible. The Germans there have no continuous settlement area, their settlements are predominantly rural, you'd have a lot of micro-states with a still ethnically mixed population. In any case, most of those micro-states would evolve on Hungarian territory. IF the Germans are about to partition AH, they'd side with Hungarian nationalists during that and these would want to keep as much from Hungary as possible.

I somehow doubt that the Germans would last much longer against Magyar nationalists than the other groups had. Fiume had Corpus separatum due to the Hungarians trying to claim all of Croatia, Slavonia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Dalmatia as being part of a state that had once been in personal union with them and being given access to a port shut them up a bit. I also rather doubted the chance of many German states being set up, as they were there from long before the concept of German nationalism and might have simply been placed on the maps of the country whether or not they made actual majorities. Still, it would be a hassle to keep them there and population exchanges could only go so far. Any suggestion on where the people could be moved to?

[lukedalton]

Taking in consideration a scenario of 'controlled demolition' after a period of civil unreast and constitutional impasse due the intervention on Hungary to suppres the noble revolt and the following request by all the other minority of assurance and rights and the unsatisfactory answer of the Hasburg. Germany will try to support the Empire for a while, but between the fact that is a costly hard and long work, many of the German goverment and imperial circle started to believe that by now A-H cannot be saved and is better use the occasion to forge an alliance with more stable nation.
Calling for a new European Congress (after a lot of 'suggestion' by the other european capitals) a proposed division of A-H is drafted.
- Germany will get proper Austria (plus South Tyrol and the northern part of actual Slovenia) and the Sudetenland, they will form a duchy with an Hasburg in charge.
- Italy will get Trentino (but with a borderline favorable, in defensive term, to Germany), all the Kustenland and part of Dalmatia (basically what Italy get during WWII).
- Fiume will remain with Croatia as the port of the nation.
- Serbia (who will probably try to inglobe Montenegro) will divide Bosnia with the new nation of Croatia.
-Galicia go to Russia
- Czech will be an autonomous protectorate of the German reich with lot of internal authonomy (basically think Finland in the cold war).
- Hungary get the OTL 1944 border.
By coincidence Italy sign a new alliance with Germany just a month after the congress, with Hungary and Croatia as junior patner. Rumors indicated that overture are be done towards Russia regarding at least a non-aggression pact.