NATO vs Warsaw Pact conventional war in 1985: Who has the edge?

[EnglishCanuck]

I was doing a bit of reading (and re-reading of Red Storm Rising and Red Army) and found myself asking, who really had the edge in a purely conventional engagement between the two Cold War super powers?

My personal thoughts are to give the initial edge to the Red Army, as they have the sheer weight of numbers to potentially simply overwhelm the NATO ground forces in a matter of days.

But, in the long run they have to cut off NATO resupply from the sea and decimate NATO air assets. That includes carriers, which is no easy task.

All my thinking is that while the Soviets have an immediate advantage on the ground, in the air they possess not so much of one while on the high seas its a toss up IMO depending on who strikes first.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by EnglishCanuck

I was doing a bit of reading (and re-reading of Red Storm Rising and Red Army) and found myself asking, who really had the edge in a purely conventional engagement between the two Cold War super powers?

My personal thoughts are to give the initial edge to the Red Army, as they have the sheer weight of numbers to potentially simply overwhelm the NATO ground forces in a matter of days.

But, in the long run they have to cut off NATO resupply from the sea and decimate NATO air assets. That includes carriers, which is no easy task.

All my thinking is that while the Soviets have an immediate advantage on the ground, in the air they possess not so much of one while on the high seas its a toss up IMO depending on who strikes first.

On the high seas they are screwed. The Red Navy can in no way prevail against the USN.

[Daylight Savings]

How do you come up with a toss up against the USN who are larger than the next 10 largest navies combined in tonnage?

[aktarian]

I think 1980s were a time when NATO could have stopped Soviets without resorting to nukes. Not just because of US but also Bundeswehr improvement and general NATO technological edge. Not yet great, but it's there.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by aktarian

I think 1980s were a time when NATO could have stopped Soviets without resorting to nukes. Not just because of US but also Bundeswehr improvement and general NATO technological edge. Not yet great, but it's there.

By the mid to late 1980s, sure. In the Hollow Army phase? NATO would have been a speed bump to nuclear Armageddon.

[EnglishCanuck]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

On the high seas they are screwed. The Red Navy can in no way prevail against the USN.

Originally Posted by Daylight Savings

How do you come up with a toss up against the USN who are larger than the next 10 largest navies combined in tonnage?

I was thinking in terms of submarines and if the Soviets got lucky enough to use them well and perhaps hurt a carrier group. On the surface any Soviet warship is mincemeat when it emerges from port.

[Daylight Savings]

Originally Posted by EnglishCanuck

I was thinking in terms of submarines and if the Soviets got lucky enough to use them well and perhaps hurt a carrier group. On the surface any Soviet warship is mincemeat when it emerges from port.

The problem being that all Soviet sub bases were not close to any US carrier bases. Any large scale deployment in an attempt to surprise a carrier group would be easily spotted by satellite surveillance.

[EnglishCanuck]

Originally Posted by Daylight Savings

The problem being that all Soviet sub bases were not close to any US carrier bases. Any large scale deployment in an attempt to surprise a carrier group would be easily spotted by satellite surveillance.

Were the satellite systems in 1985 really that good? I'm sure they could probably pick up an attack at long range they were looking for, but if a US carrier group off Europe was crept up upon by a dozen Soviet subs I'm not as sure the US could easily pick it up as their eyes would probably be trained elsewhere and they would be depending on the destroyer escort of doing that job for them.

Though the scene where the Soviet Bombers manage to wreck a US carrier in Red Storm Rising comes to mind as well.

[AdA]

In 1989/91 we all saw what the soviets long suspected, that in the event of a majot crisis most Warsaw pact natkions would get the hell out of that pact as fast as they could. In the event of a war in 1985, most Warsaw pact nations would swich sides leaving the USSR alone and with a very messy frontline.

[The Red]

It depends how long it lasts, the Red Army would have the edge in the first few months, but if NATO (and possibly China and/or Japan) get the chance to bring their full economic potential to bear the Soviets will be pushed back.

[Chris Oakley]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

On the high seas they are screwed. The Red Navy can in no way prevail against the USN.

Or the RN for that matter.

[superjames1992]

Originally Posted by EnglishCanuck

I was doing a bit of reading (and re-reading of Red Storm Rising and Red Army) and found myself asking, who really had the edge in a purely conventional engagement between the two Cold War super powers?

My personal thoughts are to give the initial edge to the Red Army, as they have the sheer weight of numbers to potentially simply overwhelm the NATO ground forces in a matter of days.

But, in the long run they have to cut off NATO resupply from the sea and decimate NATO air assets. That includes carriers, which is no easy task.

All my thinking is that while the Soviets have an immediate advantage on the ground, in the air they possess not so much of one while on the high seas its a toss up IMO depending on who strikes first.

At that point, NATO would probably win. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Warsaw Pact has a good chance, though the NATO defense buildup of the 1980s pretty much sealed that shut.

[Snake Featherston]

In the 1980s? It would depend on when in the 1980s. In the early 1980s the Red Army smashes the Hollow army to red rags, but the mid-late 1980s US Army is the won that conclusively destroyed the Iraqis in Desert Storm (admittedly the Soviets wouldn't just sit there for months on end offering us a lovely opportunity to kick ass the way Saddam did). Not that this would matter either way, the war turns nuclear past a certain point and at its fullest size the Soviet arsenal of the 1980s was far larger than US analyses allowed for and more than sufficient to end human civilization in a general exchange.