A Choice, Not An Echo: The Gary Johnson/Barry Goldwater Campaign, 2012

[vultan]

A little project I had in my head. Thought I would share the idea...

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Originally Posted by Reason Online

Gary Johnson Wants Barry Goldwater, Jr. As His VP

April 30, 2012

If all goes according to plan for former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson at this week’s Libertarian Party convention in Las Vegas, he will win his party’s nomination for president on the first ballot and his running mate will be former congressman Barry Goldwater, Jr.

“The process all along has been to find somebody that can articulate libertarian ideals and beliefs and I’ve thought all along that he would be a really solid pick,” said Johnson, during a phone interview with Reason late Sunday night.

Johnson said the fact that Goldwater comes “from a great heritage of libertarian-conservatism” and has prior experience in high political office makes him a valuable addition to the campaign.

“He’s been through the fire, has a considerable amount of political experience, and he will be one heartbeat from the presidency and I think he would be very capable of that,” he said.

Goldwater, who is still a registered Republican, is a former Representative from California’s 20th congressional district. He was an unsuccessful candidate for the United States Senate in 1982, losing in the primary to general election victor Pete Wilson. But perhaps most prominently, he is the son of the late Barry Goldwater, Sr., a five-term Senator, conservative icon, and the Republican Party’s nominee for President in the 1964 election. Though the elder Goldwater lost the general election against Lyndon Johnson in one of the most decisive landslides in American history, his effort is widely considered to have been a catalyst for the modern conservative and libertarian movements.

The Johnson/Goldwater ticket started to come together back in early March, when Fox News anchor John Stossel had both of the candidates on his news show to discuss various political issues. [1] When fellow guest David Boaz suggested the possibility of the two sharing a presidential ticket, the audience responded very positively, cheering.

“It was the first time I ever considered it and shortly thereafter his campaign approached me about the possibility of it,” said Goldwater.

This was not the first time in recent years that Goldwater has dabbled in libertarian politics. During the 2008 primary season, he endorsed and actively campaigned for libertarian-leaning Texas Congressman Ron Paul, contributing to his relative success in early primary states such as New Hampshire. These activities have made Goldwater very popular among Ron Paul’s dedicated group of supporters.

Eventually everything fell into place on April 23 when the Johnson campaign formally asked Goldwater if he would be their running mate. Goldwater accepted.

“I only agreed to run if the campaign would be centered on principle. Our country is a mess right now, and only a return to true conservative principles will be able to save us. I think that running on that alone will get the public to notice us,” Goldwater stated. “In the words of my father, we will offer a choice, not an echo.”

Goldwater said the Johnson campaign considered him, along with three other possible candidates, for Vice President. At this time there do not appear to be any additional candidates currently seeking the Libertarian nomination for vice president. This could change at the convention as the Libertarians have a history of picking vice presidents from presidential candidates that lose in the early rounds of voting. This happened as recently as 2008 when Wayne Allyn Root wound up as the vice presidential candidate after losing his bid for the presidential nomination on the fifth ballot. Root ran as Bob Barr’s running mate after being elected in the second round of voting.

[1] The point of divergence.

(Red being the edits from the OTL article)

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So yeah, the concept of this timeline is a different composition for the 2012 Libertarian presidential ticket, and the bigger effects thereof. Since the POD is extremely recent, I will approach this by first establishing some more groundwork tomorrow, then by following the general election campaign periodically and letting it slowly diverge from OTL with this relatively minor POD as the basis. Will Johnson/Goldwater make a huge splash in the general election? We'll see, it depends on how the campaign shapes up. I will say that it's a pretty safe bet that Johnson/Goldwater generates a bit more media buzz, at least initially, than Johnson/Gray did.

Two things to get out of the way. First, for any The Power and the Glitter! fans out there, I am still very much working on that, and it is my first priority. This is mostly a side project (at least right now), and I do not expect it taking up a whole lot of my time. Should I fail in that regard, and you perceive this is getting the lion's share of my AH.com effort, don't hesitate to let me know.

Second, yes, I am a libertarian-leaning Republican. However, I'm going to approach this timeline in the most unbiased way I possibly can. Should I fail, don't hesitate to call me out, and I will try to rectify any implausibility.

Anyway, thoughts? Critiques? Comments?

[WhiteRussian]

Yes, I do. Johnson/Goldwater 2012!

Just kidding. I have no interest in shilling libertarians, being something of a socialist myself (I don't get that practice anyway). But anyway, I think potentially, they could have a significant impact depending on what issues they talk about. Generally speaking, libertarian voters are more likely to vote Republican, so this could eat away at GOP support. Might trim a point or 2 off Romney's total and be a deciding factor in states like Arizona and Texas.

[Æsir]

Johnson/Goldwater? Now I've seen everything.

Quoting my thoughts from the chat thread on Gary Johnson;

Originally Posted by Æsir

I'm not even sure that (Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District) would be the best use of his resources; it's a fairly urban district and a purpleish one, doesn't seem like prime Libertarian territory. I'll add that Maine also splits it's electoral votes and like much of New England has an independent streak, having given Ross Perot his best results in both 1992 and 1996, even outpolling H.W. Bush the first time on Bush family home turf. The north of the state — which the 2nd Congressional District encompasses — especially is rural country with a decided libertarian streak and includes three counties that went for Perot in '92 as well as carrying Tea Party Republican Paul LePage to the Governor's Mansion in 2010. Failing that, winning one of the small at-large district western states, which are also sympathetic to libertarianism, wouldn't be much harder than winning a singular district in Maine or Nebraska.

More of a longshot, he could go for winning New Mexico, where he has been polling in the mid teens and where he served as an IIRC fairly popular Governor.

Since you have to face that he isn't going to win, the holy grail is to get at least one electoral vote while getting past 5% popular vote nationally. That way he becomes a huge story and gets the Libertarian Party matching funds in 2016, which could be the real quantum leap that even if doesn't bring down the house will really shake it up badly.

[Massa Chief]

Huzza! Gary Johnson 2012!

[WhiteRussian]

Yes, maybe he'll actually be something other than a guy who you can't criticize without drawing nasty arguments. Actually, that's true of most libertarians. All you do is have to do is be a libertarian and automatically you're not allowed to be criticized. I think that's funny. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson stand out among that pack. Ah well, I kind of liked Paul and Johnson.

Actually, this is kind of way I approach these topics with caution. Always 1 or 2 people who feel the need to shout "Woo hoo! Paul/Johnson 2012!"

[vultan]

Any other thoughts?