WI: Operation Eagle Claw successful?

[kevvy2010]

What if Operation Eagle Claw, the plan to rescue the Americans being held at the US Embassy in Tehran during the Iran Hostage Crisis, had been successful, and the students successfully rescued?

Perhaps the operation is delayed for one day or something.

How does a successful OEC effect things?

[Fearless Leader]

I think you're going to need a much more substantial POD to make Operation Eagle Claw a success. Namely you're going to have to get the US Special Forces to coordinate better and have SOCOM be formed earlier. Perhaps a POD could be a joint rescue attempt in Vietnam that fails miserably. This then prompts an earlier reorganization in time for the Iranian Revolution.

An early enough POD would give you enough leeway to have a reasonably workable plan.

A success would be a major boon to Carter and the Democrats which could flip the election to him or at the very least lead to Reagan dealing with a more Democratic Congress.

[The Oncoming Storm]

This of course assumes that the plan can be made to work, a lot of commentators have said that it was over complex and some hostages may actually have died in the crossfire. It certainly is going to need the American military to have avoided the post Vietnam slump and spending cuts and have much better training and serviceability.

If they do pull it off with say less than 10 hostages dead, then there is a massive surge in patriotism probably helping Carter see off Reagan.

[King Nazar]

It would certainly boost Carter's reputation as President, though without the hostage crisis the economy is going to be the number one issue. 1980 would probably be a close election.

[Fearless Leader]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

This of course assumes that the plan can be made to work, a lot of commentators have said that it was over complex and some hostages may actually have died in the crossfire. It certainly is going to need the American military to have avoided the post Vietnam slump and spending cuts and have much better training and serviceability.

If they do pull it off with say less than 10 hostages dead, then there is a massive surge in patriotism probably helping Carter see off Reagan.

I agree that OTL's plan for Operation Eagle Claw was a disaster. WAY too many variables IMO, way too many things that could go wrong. I'm pretty certain that the Americans were lucky the mission got called off when it did. Had things gone belly up during the rescue itself (probable) you would've had a major loss of life on both sides and an even bigger crisis.

[Riain]

I assume for it to work the US would have to get it`s collective shit together for this sort of thing. If it did work then Carter would bask in the glory and perhaps get re-elected and all sorts of other things.

[ivanotter]

It has always come across as overly complex.

Driving into Tehran in "captured" lorries, overpower the hostage takers, transport to the stadium, occupation of the Iranian airport, ...... the list is nearly endles.

But,, let's say it comes off as planned:

Iran was not an outcast at this time as far as I know, so a US intervention in a independent country, in a Middle East setting, might not look good.

Would Saudi support it (I don't think they did)? Would it be seen as an attack on a Muslim country?

I don't think the Arabic world would applaud this, as it would clearly show the extreme might of the US (this was a huge complex operation, nearly an invasion).

I think it would have backfired in a serious way. Carter would have been looked at as a war monger of note in an international context. Would France, Germany, UK have been fine with this? It's like using the sledgehammer to crack a nut. A bit over the top.

Ivan

[BigWillyG]

Originally Posted by Fearless Leader

I think you're going to need a much more substantial POD to make Operation Eagle Claw a success. Namely you're going to have to get the US Special Forces to coordinate better and have SOCOM be formed earlier. Perhaps a POD could be a joint rescue attempt in Vietnam that fails miserably. This then prompts an earlier reorganization in time for the Iranian Revolution.

An early enough POD would give you enough leeway to have a reasonably workable plan.

A success would be a major boon to Carter and the Democrats which could flip the election to him or at the very least lead to Reagan dealing with a more Democratic Congress.

Maybe have a failed Mayaguez rescue lead to the development of SOCOM or some equivalent?

[Grimm Reaper]

Let's not even consider the part where an Iranian highway was to be used as an air base with all traffic being stopped and aircraft coming and going in full view of Allah and radar.

As has been noted the operation could all too easily have led to deaths and more hostages.

[Dave Howery]

even if it had been successful, I don't think you'd see Carter reelected... he was the one who 'allowed' the hostages to be taken in the first place, didn't foresee the Russians invading Afghanistan, was basically helpless in the oil embargo, etc. etc. Carter had plenty of nails in his coffin already, the hostage crisis was just one more...

[Armored Diplomacy]

A better WI would be what if the weather had been better, there had been no chopper crashes, and the mission had proceeded?

[Simreeve]

Do you think that the planners had been influenced by the success of Operation Thunderbolt a few years earlier?

[metastasis_d]

What if the Shah isn't allowed into the US? Would the hostage crisis even happen?

My US History TA had a conspiracy theory that the crisis was intentionally triggered so that the Iranian assets in US banks would be frozen, and that the "banking lobbyists" were behind the Carter administration's letting the Shah in.
He was a crazy dude.

[SLCer]

Carter's administration should have seen the tide turning against the Shah long before they allowed him into the country for medical reasons. With Iran's population already anti-American and growing in opposition of the Shah, when the President hosted the Shah in '77, it just fueled the hatred. Carter knew the Shah was on thin ice and still went ahead with toasting him at a dinner.

That worsened the situation, essentially sealed the Shah's fate. When he asked for entrance into the country after it became known he was dying of cancer, Carter initially opposed the idea, but relented because of humanitarian reasons. I believe Carter took a vote and they all told him to allow him in, even though no one knew what to do if they held Americans hostage.

Carter should have shut down the embassy and told employees there to evacuate when the Shah was overthrown. The situation was far too volatile and allowing the Shah inside U.S. borders only exasperated it. Had the embassy been shut down, none of this matters and Carter can bring in the Shah on humanity grounds.

Would avoiding the crisis be enough for Carter to win reelection? No. His approval ratings prior to the crisis were awful. In fact, the crisis boosted his approval ratings for a period of time between November & March, but after the botched operation, they quickly deteriorated and Carter quickly became a sitting duck. In fact, the only reason he held any lead against Reagan, really, was because his approval in early '80 was pretty respectable (he had a 52-38 approval in February of that year). But it slowly returned to pre-hostage levels and it ultimately led to his defeat.

So, had the hostage situation not happened, Carter's approval probably stays in the 20s & 30s, which is where they were at in October & November of '79, and he loses in a landslide - maybe even loses the nomination to Kennedy, since he wouldn't have had a boost of support at the crucial point of the '80 primaries.

However, had Operation Eagle Claw somehow defied the odds and was proven successful, I think there is a chance he's able to ride the high approval to reelection. Remember, in reality, Carter's ratings didn't tank until after the operation failed. Had it been a success, it's possible Carter's ratings spike into the 60s and remain there through early spring & part of summer. Maybe the administration rolls out the hostages in the summer of '80 as heroes, throwing a massive parade in New York, giving him another boost in the ratings, or at least sustaining that boost.

I don't know if it would've been enough, but I think the goodwill would have certainly carried over into the late summer. From there, it all depends on how dramatic the ratings drop. If his approval entering the convention is 50-plus, he might go on to beat Reagan, though by a narrow margin.

More likely, he still doesn't beat Reagan, but has a far more respectable defeat:



Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush: 344 EV
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale: 194 EV

If his approval can stay above 50%, it might be enough to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Illinois - which would deliver Carter the election with 280 electoral votes:



But I'd say scenario number one is probably the most likely. Carter was in a tough spot in 1980. Malaise was an issue and while a successful operation to save the hostages would have certainly boosted morale, I don't know if it would have held long enough to deliver him the election.