If no Fort Sumter, does Upper South secede?

[Nerdlinger]

Suppose that, for whatever reason, the US government provides no military resistance toward the states which seceded prior to Sumter. (Maybe a Southern appeaser is elected in 1860 instead of Lincoln, or what have you.) This then results in Fort Sumter being surrendered without a fight. In such a scenario, would Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia secede? If they do go, would other slave states like Missouri and Kentucky go with them, given the absence of federal opposition? And finally, would West Virginia break away and stick with the Union as in OTL?

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by DJC

Suppose that, for whatever reason, the US government provides no military resistance toward the states which seceded prior to Sumter. (Maybe a Southern appeaser is elected in 1860 instead of Lincoln, or what have you.) This then results in Fort Sumter being surrendered without a fight. In such a scenario, would Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia secede? If they do go, would other slave states like Missouri and Kentucky go with them, given the absence of federal opposition? And finally, would West Virginia break away and stick with the Union as in OTL?

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

[Darth_Kiryan]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

Doesn't that just prolong the war into the next presidency, perhaps?

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

If a Southern Appeaser is elected there won't be a Civil War. Why would there be?

Perhaps a president who is anti-slavery but lacks the conviction to keep the union from being divided over the issue, then. I'm not sure who exactly would fit the bill, but suppose that such a person were elected.

[oshron]

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by oshron

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

Not really, some Southern sympathy in some quarters was blown way out of proportion.

[Spengler]

Originally Posted by oshron

personally, im more interested in the potential secession of non-southern states in this scenario; i heard a while back that new york was considering secession until sumter was attacked

According to who, Tigger?

[oshron]

Originally Posted by Spengler

According to who, Tigger?

jeez, its just something that i heard a while ago, i cant even remember where. no need to be snide.