Century of Fire: The Legacy of Kaiser Heinrich (reboot)

[Sir Chaos]

So, after a long absence I thought I´d like to give my pet timeline another try. Rather than continue where I left off the last time, I would prefer to start over from the beginning; I´ve lost my my note for the previous attempt at the timeline any.

Also, rather than having a firm scenario in mind that I´m steering towards, I will try to keep this one more open, depending on feedback by the other forum members.


Premises

The point of departure remains the same as before: Prince Wilhelm, grandson of Emperor Wilhelm I of Germany (and in OTL, later Emperor Wilhelm II of Germany) dies of diphteria in 1879 (rather than, as in OTL, his younger brother Waldemar). The second son of Crown Prince Friedrich, Heinrich, becomes Crown Prince after Wilhelm I´s death, and (as Heinrich I) Emperor of Germany and King of Prussia after the death of his father later than year.

I had a second PoD in the older version, involving the American Civil War going slightly differently (limited British intervention resulting in later Union victory), but I am not so sure I would even need something like it to achieve what I have in mind, so I´ll leave it out this time.
The main effect that this PoD was supposed to have was for the US to become more interventionist rather than isolationist internationally, since they saw that isolationism does not protect them from others intervening in their backroom, so why not return the favor?

One major event that goes differently from OTL is going to be that the assassination attempt against Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 fails; he and his wife survive, and Franz Ferdinand manages to prevent this event from triggering a war that then spirals out of control.
None of this removes the underlying causes of the war; more competent and far-sighted policies compared to OTL (especially on part of Heinrich I as compared to OTL Wilhelm II) manage to defuse a number of ticking time bombs, at least temporarily, but they cannot make the scores WW1 was supposed to settle disappear; the root causes of the rise of anarchism and communism in that time still exist, and while the abovementioned policies can manage to stave off bloody revolutions, for a time, sooner or later things will blow up in some fashion - and I believe that, the longer things take to blow up, the bigger the resulting explosion is going to be.

I had chosen the name "Century of Fire" for this timeline because the 20th century was going to be a interesting time, in the ancient Chinese sense, and I think that´s going to be true whichever way things continue to develop. Looking at the early differences from OTL at least (a sane and more competent German Emperor, no WW1 etc), this is going to look overly optimistic, but I really am a cynic at heart, and there´ll be enough death and destruction caused by the Four Pedestrians of the Apocalypse (Greed, Fanaticism, Vindictiveness and Xenophobia) to justify the timeline´s title.

Okay... enough introductory talk. Hope to see you guys along for the ride...

[Nivek]

Well Interesting for the reboot, at least here avoid a plot hole twist like having USvs UK in a undeclared war for a few years and them magicaly become allies... or the russia & ottoman anti wank so quickly

[Sir Chaos]

Originally Posted by Nivek

Well Interesting for the reboot, at least here avoid a plot hole twist like having USvs UK in a undeclared war for a few years and them magicaly become allies... or the russia & ottoman anti wank so quickly

Don´t worry, as this is the third version (you can find the first under "A Different Wilhelm II"; the second is called "Century of Fire" already), a lot of the more obvious bugs are worked out already.

I don´t know if that counts as a wank of any kind, but - even though I didn´t spell it out - the previous versions assume, as this one will, that a certain Austrian corporal dies an meaningless death in a meaningless riot somewhere in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century. Or maybe, in a case of multiversal karmic justice, he is accidentally and fatally run over by a Jewish motorist in the streets of Linz.

[BernieP2]

I had posted this in another thread ... but its just as applicable here ...

You may have already thought about and/or used some of the same ideas ..in your earlier versions.

Bernie P2

Nice Thread, Some ideas
Having Henry as Kaiser rather than the OTL egotistic, bombastic, erratic and unstable WmII, will definitely change History ....

Most likely .. he would hew to Bismarck's warning to never give Russia a reason not to ally with Germany. The Re-insurance Treaty would have been negotiated and in place.

The French would have stewed but would not have had the manpower nor industry to start trouble on their own.

Second: v Tirpitz's ideas on Naval sizing would be stopped after the second naval Bill and not goad GB into fearing the Kaiserlische Marine. A 2:1 parity seems high ... 3:4 in number of ships and 2:3 in net tonnage seems more equitable for a new 'superpower' in Europe. The KM main job is supporting overseas colonies and blockading the Baltic against the Russians should that ever become necessary.

As a result, I believe Albion would have tried its damnedest to continue its "splendid isolation" into the 1920's if it could. Unrest in India and the Dominions would have taken all their attention.

Third: selling German East Africa seems extreme ... how about giving the Brits a guaranteed passage in return for Walfisch Bay to Germany. In a stretch, additionally the Danes are persuaded to lease the VI's to Germany while retaining sovereignty to Danmark.

Fourth: on the Domestic front --- abolition of the Three Class voting system in Prussia (from the 1848 constitution) and a transition to one man one vote .... coupled with a re-balancing of Reichtag seats by decade spaced Census.

Again, as a stretch ... splitting the Kingdom of Prussia into 4 Dutchies - Preussisch Hannover (with a Hohenzoller on the throne, not a return to the Welfs) ; Posen with a Radzewill on the throne), Rhine Preussen (everything West of Magdeburg), and Alt or Ur Preussen everything else (essentially Brandenburg, Ost & West Preussen ). All still part of Preussen but electing their own Landrat and Landtage as well as Reichtag seats ... think of the chenged political implications ...

Sixth: A United and Integrated Army. Unlike the KM the armies were still the "property" of the individual monarchs of the constituent federal Laender. An integrated army would have had to balance the officer Corps and begin to dilute the iron hold of the Altpreussisch aristocracy on the positions. A second item might be to subordinate the day to day direction of the Army (and KM) to a civilian Ministry (Verteidigung) during peace time. Since the Kaiser selected the Chancellor ... not too much of a stretch. In war time they reverted back to reporting to the Oberbefelshaber .. the Monarch.

Seventh ... in similar vein, a single, national Foreign Ministry rather than deferring to Prussia's FM as the national FM. Bayern had an Ambassador in Berlin at the start of WW I !! Such an establishment MIGHT have figured out that Spain was going to be at war with the US soon and bought not only the Carolines, et al but ALSO the Philippines before hostilities broke out and unleashed Adm Dewey and the Asiatic Squadron to Manila Bay.

Probably some other things to take the edge off the policies and shape of the 1900 Kaiserreich.. what Wm II never understood was - "When you are the 800 Pound Gorilla on the Block, you don't need to show or prove it to anyone." His Germany was the 800 # gorilla, but he acted like someone both afraid and jealous of his English relations, often at the same time.

In 1914 ... v Hoetzendorff and Berchtold would have never been given "the Blank Check" by a Kaiser Henry that allowed A-H to make war on Serbia after she (Serbia) had agreed to almost all of the A-H demands.

By the time of the Ausgleich re-negotiation in 1917 or the ascent of Kaiser Karl in 1916 ... A-H would have begun the divorce proceedings -- the Hungarian nobility no longer afraid of the Russians and weary of Vienna's niceties to the minorities.

Europe could have sailed serenely into the golden sunset of the Edwardian era and into a transition brought on by technology and driven by trickle down wealth generated by the industries it spawned ... rather than drowning in a sea of warfare and 8 million? dead, communist revolution, ethnic, economic and class dislocations that set the stage for an even worse second Act.

Well, some ideas to ponder ....


BernieP2 ...

[Sir Chaos]

Those are some interesting suggestions, thank you. The naval question was of course part of the considerations of the previous versions. Heinrich is something of a naval enthusiast even ITTL, so the navy would expand considerably, but I feel that between him and Bismarck, they would be smart enough to know that, 800 lb gorilla or not, you don´t get into an armwrestling contest with a two ton gorilla on his home turf - hence no naval arms race with the British.



One: The Navy

Outside the Imperial family itself, the differences to OTL are fairly insignificant, at least up to the point when Heinrich I is crowned Emperor.

After taking power, Heinrich retains Bismarck as a trusted advisor and continues the foreign policies Bismarck has established.
The naval buildup is far less pronounced than in OTL; Heinrich decides to keep the size of the navy small enough that Britain does not feel threatened in its superiority (to the tune of a strength of 6-8 capital ships; the relative strength in lighter units is greater, though still by no means a match for the British). Heinrich repeatedly states his goal of building "the finest Navy of continental Europe"; the qualifier is not lost on the British, nor is the fact that he said "finest", not "largest". Heinrich is aware that it would be foolish to challenge the British in their own game, but he still intends to show them (and the rest of the world) that Germany is a real power, not an upstart collection of quarreling princedoms.

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by BernieP2

I had posted this in another thread ... but its just as applicable here ...

You may have already thought about and/or used some of the same ideas ..in your earlier versions.

Bernie P2

Nice Thread, Some ideas
Having Henry as Kaiser rather than the OTL egotistic, bombastic, erratic and unstable WmII, will definitely change History ....

Again, as a stretch ... splitting the Kingdom of Prussia into 4 Dutchies - Preussisch Hannover (with a Hohenzoller on the throne, not a return to the Welfs) ; Posen with a Radzewill on the throne), Rhine Preussen (everything West of Magdeburg), and Alt or Ur Preussen everything else (essentially Brandenburg, Ost & West Preussen ). All still part of Preussen but electing their own Landrat and Landtage as well as Reichtag seats ... think of the chenged political implications ...

Sixth: A United and Integrated Army. Unlike the KM the armies were still the "property" of the individual monarchs of the constituent federal Laender. An integrated army would have had to balance the officer Corps and begin to dilute the iron hold of the Altpreussisch aristocracy on the positions. A second item might be to subordinate the day to day direction of the Army (and KM) to a civilian Ministry (Verteidigung) during peace time. Since the Kaiser selected the Chancellor ... not too much of a stretch. In war time they reverted back to reporting to the Oberbefelshaber .. the Monarch.

Seventh ... in similar vein, a single, national Foreign Ministry rather than deferring to Prussia's FM as the national FM. Bayern had an Ambassador in Berlin at the start of WW I !! Such an establishment MIGHT have figured out that Spain was going to be at war with the US soon and bought not only the Carolines, et al but ALSO the Philippines before hostilities broke out and unleashed Adm Dewey and the Asiatic Squadron to Manila Bay.

BernieP2 ...

Agree with all the "snipped" points.

Points 6 and 7 are a bit difficult because of the federal structure of Germany. 7 might be easier but what do you offer the "states" for losing their armies? Bavaria probably would be extremely reluctant. It´s a status symbol. And without a lost or badly going war, what´s the reason for that change?
Mutter, mutter.
The Prussian King and Emperor wants to control us even more. Or the Prussians want to use our soldiers against strikers in Silesia.
You get the idea.

Splitting the Kingdom of Prussia is a stretch. Emperor Henry in his function as King of Prussia might hesitate here. Given the federal structure of Germany, Prussia is essentially his "power base". And then there´s the emotional "value". Voluntarily dismantling a Prussia that has grown to its current size over the last 200 years....
It´s not even sure if a democratically elected Prussian Landtag would agree to it. Remember Otto Braun? A Social Democrat, elected as Prime minister of Prussia during the Weimar Republic era. And a guy who opposed Adenauer´s idea of creating a new Rhineland state out of the Prussian Rhineland.

[BernieP2]

One of the carry overs from the Prussian state to the Second Reich was the "separateness" of the military (Heer). I understand the implications, especially for Bayern (even today they still think of themselves as a Land apart!) ... nevertheless, integration of some type is needed to dilute the Junkers' ability to treat the Army as a standalone entity, separate and apart from the nation.

I understand the splitting of Prussia into 4 "Sub-Laeder" (all still under the King) is a stretch but some sort of mechanism to dilute the overwhelming reach of Prussia and its institutions.

Bernie

Es war jhar alles so shoen ... und jetzt ...