The House of Palaiologos, Against the Tide: An Eastern Roman Timeline

[Avitus]

after lurking and reading TLs in the pre 1900 forum for several months, I decided it was time I did some contributing. My TL will focus on the possibility of a Byzantine/Eastern Roman survival and moderate revival with a POD set inside the reign of Constantine XI Palaiologos. I know that this sounds incredibly implausable to anyone with even a running knowledge of Byzantine or Turkish history, but I ask that you read my scenario before making that judgement final.

Please do not be shy about commenting, especially if something important has escaped my notice. I am open to suggestions, as I am more or less writing this as I go. Now without further delay, here's my first TL.

The House of Palaiologos, Against the Tide: An Eastern Roman Timeline

Chapter One: Constantine XI

“For our God is a just God. The Romans crucified his son, so he crucified the sons of the Romans.”-George Psellos, Byzantine Church unionist and Cardinal in Rome.

Regardless of who you ask, there are few who would deny that Eastern Roman Empire’s darkest hour was in the mid-15th century A.D., with the Ottomans controlling every imperial province save the Morea, Trebizond (an independent successor state since 1204), and Constantinople itself. The empire was little more (indeed, often nothing more) than an Ottoman vassal, with the emperors themselves often having less influence than most Ottoman court officials. Amidst this chaos, the once mighty Orthodox Church was being ripped apart by those factions who proposed submission to the Church of Rome, and those who believed that such a union was unacceptable. It was into this situation that Constantine XI Palaiologos was cast during his coronation on January 6th, 1449. The state of the empire was so bad that he only became emperor after acquiring the support of the Ottoman Sultan Murad II over his rebellious older brother Demetrios, who was then placed under house arrest in his home in Constantinople(1).

Despite the absolutely horrible situation of the Eastern Roman Empire, Constantine XI was strong in his resolution to defend his domain from Ottoman encroachment by whatever means necessary. Any and all surplus money was spent on defensive structures, especially the reparation of the Theodosian walls, which would be considered the premier construction project of Constantine’s reign. He also tried hard to forge alliances, and under the looming threat of the Ottomans, was able to claim the support of Venice, Genoa, Trebizond, Georgia, Hungary, and the Papacy. He also worked to curry favor with the Ottomans, a goal in which he was reasonably successful, as he managed to garner favorable relations with both Sultan Murad II and the Grand Vizier Candarli Halil Pasha(2).

It is worth noting that Constantine XI had a very pro-western foreign policy, as he viewed the Islamic Ottomans as the ultimate threat to the empire’s survival, and it was because of this that he was willing to reaffirm the union between the eastern and western churches in exchange for the promise of Papal aid and support. This move essentially meant that Constantine would be less able to depend upon his own people, many of whom were staunchly anti-unionist, but given that the city of Constantinople had shrunken to the point where fielding an army of over 5000 native citizens would be completely impossible, it is reasonable that he turned his gaze to the hope of charity from the large and populous militaries of Italy and Western Europe. By reuniting the churches, he hoped in the short run to make his cause palatable to the staunchly Catholic Kings of the west, and in the long run to hopefully inspire a renewal of large scale crusading against the Ottoman infidel.

In 1451, Murad II died, and was succeeded by his 19 year old son Mehmed II. Unlike Murad, who was a peaceful older man and on reasonable terms with Constantine XI, Mehmed was a young man with dreams of glory. It had long been a dream of the Ottoman Sultans to conquer Constantinople, and for the most part the only reason that they had not yet achieved that goal was the peaceful nature of Murad II and the hassle of assaulting the Theodosian walls. Besides that, there was little reason for leaving Constantinople and the Morea unconquered, and Mehmed had little desire to see the current situation continue during his reign.

It soon became obvious that Mehmet would besiege Constantinople, and Constantine XI began furiously calling for aid from every ally that would hear him. More importantly, he sent his brother Demetrios to the Ottoman court at Adrianople, on a special diplomatic mission. After failing to usurp the throne from Constantine, Demetrios’ relationship with his brother was strained, and this was made all the worse by the fact that Demetrios was pro Ottoman while Constantine was pro-west. However, it was Demetrios’ blatant, pro-Ottoman stance that made him the perfect man to send to the Ottoman court to attempt to broker peace, or at least to stall Mehmed’s advance.

Although Demetrios’ presence at the Ottoman court did buy the Romans a considerable amount of time to prepare, as well as keeping Demetrios far from the court of Constantinople and Morea where he would be free to sow dissent against Constantine, it was only part of the reason for sending an envoy to Adrianople. The second purpose was to establish contact with the Grand Vizier Candarli Halil Pasha, with whom Constantine was still on good terms. It was fairly well known that the Grand Vizier was incredibly powerful in the Ottoman Empire, but more importantly, it had also become apparent that Mehmed was not on good terms with Grand Vizier Halil. While Demetrios made the pretense of diplomatic negotiation believable, Constantine used trustworthy nobles within the envoy to attempt to convince the Grand Vizier to lend him aid and overthrow Mehmed(3).

By 1552 Mehmed had grown tired of waiting, and even more tired of Demetrios’ presence at his court. Mehmed officially declared an end to the truce on August 2nd, and ultimately beheaded Demetrios, thereafter sending the head to Constantinople as a message. He then set about building fortresses on either side of the Bosporus in order to prevent aid coming to the Romans by sea. By this point Constantine had managed to gather somewhere between ten and fifteen thousand men (5,000 Byzantines, 5000 Italians, and an undetermined number of mostly Turkish mercenaries). He had also managed to gather a large amount of supplies and money, mostly loans from his Italian and Georgian allies, and had used a good portion of the money to hire the Hungarian gunsmith Orbon, and to buy materials for Orbon to make small defensive cannons with. It is estimated that by the end of Constantine’s war drives, the empire owed so much money to it’s allies, that they couldn’t have paid it off even if they had sold every soul left in the empire as slaves for the maximum market value.

Although less pronounced, preparations for the siege of Constantinople did strain the Ottoman state as well. It was obvious that any force hoping to storm the Theodosian walls (and Mehmed did want to storm the walls) would need to be utterly massive. Then there was the matter of breaking into the city, which would require a truly massive artillery train, and the matter of crossing the Bosporus strait with such a force. Accordingly Mehmed raised an army of 100,000 soldiers, supported by an artillery train with over 100 cannons, and a navy of at least 300 ships (although less than 10% were warships, as the bulk were to be used as troop transports). All of this military spending did little to help Mehmed’s relationship with his Grand Vizier, and by March of 1453 things took a turn for the worse when Grand Vizier Halil formally voiced some of his concerns during a meeting between the Sultan Mehmed and the generals who would be accompanying him during the siege. The Grand Vizier was not a fan of Mehmed’s vain plans of expansionism, but even more alarming for him was the state of the treasury. In light of this, it is not surprising that when the army finally mobilized in mid-May, Grand Vizier Halil was left at his estate outside Bursa.

The final crack in the Sultan’s relationship with the Grand Vizier came shortly after the former had left the Capital. The Sultan had apparently paid one of the viziers’ servants to attempt a poisoning. The servant in question was inexperienced with poisons, and only managed to induce a violent bout of vomiting from the vizier. When the vizier recovered, he was immediately suspicious of the circumstances of his sudden illness. His kitchen servants were interrogated, and the man responsible was quickly identified. He confessed to everything, including Mehmed’s involvement, in hope of receiving mercy. He found none, and was executed on June 2nd.


Now truly worried about his position in the event of Mehmed’s victorious return, Candarli Halil Pasha quickly began to search for allies amongst the Ottoman elites. He found many, as Mehmed had been decidedly careless of stepping on the toes of his inferiors, while the Grand Vizier was well liked and quite politically intelligent. His efforts were quite successful, and with most of Mehmed’s political allies by his side outside Constantinople, there was little opposition in Asia. The only problem with the Grand Vizier’s plan was the European provinces, in which his influence was far less, but he ultimately dismissed them as nonessential, being that most of the Ottoman Empire’s population was on his side of the Bosporus, and that the loyalty of the European territories, still largely Christian and culturally Greek, was somewhat dubious.

The official declaration of rebellion came on August 13th, when soldiers loyal to Candarli Halil Pasha burned Sultan Mehmed’s great fleet at anchor. The attack was completely unexpected, and stuck as they were in the narrow Bosporus, the Ottoman fleet burned in its entirety. With a few isolated exceptions, all of Anatolia was now loyal to Candarli Halil Pasha, who moved his capital to Bursa on August 20th. He officially declared the new sultan to be Orhan the second, a weak willed sixteen year old boy living inside Constantinople who was allegedly a son of Mehmed's deceased older brother Ahmed, although weather or not he was actually of royal blood is still uncertain. These events horrified and enraged Mehmed, who reportedly ordered the execution of several prisoners during his rage. Worse still than the rebellion, was the fact that, without a fleet, Mehmed had no means of returning to Anatolia with his massive army.

Although the burning of the fleet meant that Grand Vizier Halil too was deprived of a navy, he made up for it by using his access to the Ottoman treasury to hire Italian Galleys to patrol the Bosporus. In contrast Sultan Mehmed had next to no access to funds, and was dealing with nobles who feared that their estates and families were being pillaged or destroyed while they were away. As rumors spread that Mehmed would not be able to pay them for their services, soldiers began to desert from the army. For Mehmed it was an absolute worst case scenario, and he could see only one solution; capture Constantinople.

Mehmed realized that the only way that he could get his forces back into Asia without a fleet would be to take control of Constantinople, and there, within the walls, ferry his troops across the Bosporus. His forces were already encamped outside Constantinople, and he had a large artillery train (with at least 50 cannons), but without a fleet and the possibility of reinforcements an assault on the Theodosian walls seemed like an incredibly risky undertaking, even if there were only 15,000 men defending them.


Hoping to gain entrance to the city without risking a pitched battle, Mehmed sent a delegation into the city under armistice, and offered to cease hostilities and to pay a large unspecified sum of money to Constantine. His emissaries even alluded to the possibility of returning Athens or Thessalonica to Greek control if Constantine cooperated. Constantine did not believe for a minute that allowing Mehmed access to the city would benefit his cause, rather he feared that once he let the Turks into the city they would never leave. He continued to stall the negotiations with Mehmed, while in secret he sent out an envoy of his own (by boat, since the Bosporus was no longer blockaded on account of Halil’s defection) to make contact with the newly crowned Sultan Halil I. His envoys asked for the Grand Vizier's counsel on whether or not they should let Mehmed pass, bringing a letter of greeting with Mehmed’s personal seal as proof that negotiations were in fact going on.

The Grand Vizier was in no position to face Sultan Mehmed’s massive army right now, as he had been counting on the continued Constantinopolitan resistance to buy him time to raise an army of his own. He therefore turned to a resource which he had in considerably greater abundance, gold, to diffuse the situation. He offered to pay off Constantine’s massive debt to the Italians (which at the time he likely did not know the true extent of) in full, in exchange for Constantine’s continued resistance to Mehmed. Constantine agreed, provided that the service of 5,000 Turkish mercenaries be provided to him for the duration of the siege, as he stressed that his resistance could only continue so long unsupported.

Thus on September 7th, year 1453 an alliance was concluded between the Byzantines and Candarli’s Turkish state. When Mehmed’s emissaries returned to him with this dismal news, he ordered the immediate resumption of the siege, and within hours the steady pounding of bombardment could be heard in the Bosporus. Despite this the Theodosian walls, restored as they were provided staunch resistance, and it was nearly a week before the damage to them became noticeable.

Not until September 25th did a sizable breach in the wall appear. Mehmed was quick to capitalize, and within minutes he had nearly half his force running pell-mell into the breach. They were under intense missile fire as they ran this hellish the gauntlet, but the worst did not come until they had crossed into the city. There, some 30 feet behind the walls, were three cannons. Situated inside the foundational ruins of what must once have been a large and well off household, they represented 20% of the new guns built by Orbon for the defense of the city. Behind them Emperor Constantine himself and his guards waited, until the first of the enemy passed through the breach, and the emperor gave the order to fire the first gun. Immediately a deadly scatter shot erupted from the gun, devastating the first wave of Turkish attackers. As the breach continued to fill with new soldiers, the emperor ordered the gunners to fire the second and third guns, before personally leading the charge against the Turks.

Their moral devastated by the surprise scattershot, the Turks nonetheless pressed on into the breach. In the narrow breach the Turkish numbers could not be used to full effect, and more often than not the Italian mercenaries who formed the bulk of those present at the breach were better armed and armored. In addition to this, the missile fire from the walls continued undiminished, and on several occasions large cauldrons of boiling water and oil were poured out over the Ottomans. By nightfall the breach was filled in with the bodies of 15,000 Turks and 2,400 defenders, with many more wounded, especially by the scattershot and boiling water. Exhausted, the Turks, having gained no foothold worth defending, withdrew for the night.

Mehmed was shocked to learn how many of his men had fallen. Worse still, the Byzantines had piled up the Turkish corpses outside the walls, in a sort of grizzly barricade, which in addition to demoralizing Mehmed’s troops would significantly impede any attempt to push back into the breach. With roughly a quarter of his forces dead or incapacitated, and the better part of his artillery’s munitions spent, Mehmed decided to abandon the siege. With no plausible means of returning to the Asia, Mehmed decided to dig in in Europe. He and his soldiers prepared to spend the winter months in Adrianople, and to continue their wars again in the spring. He also sent word to the people of Thessalonica to begin building a new fleet, although he was sure little of it would be ready by springtime.

As soon as it became clear that Mehmed’s forces had gone, there was revelry in the streets of Constantinople. For one glorious week there were no Greeks or Latins, no Eastern or Western Churches, only Romans in Constantinople. Joyous people flooded the great churches to thank God for deliverance, while there was dancing and drinking in every tavern and market place in the city. On the lips of every soldier and citizen was one glorious phrase, “Glory to God, long live Constantinople!”



(1) The first of several small PODs, in reality Demetrios was allowed to go to the Morea, where he essentially only caused trouble for Constantine's much more loyal younger brother, Thomas.
(2) The second noteworthy POD, Candarli Halil Pasha was an incredibly wealthy and powerful Grand Vizier of the Ottoman Empire, who is well known to have hated Mehmed. IOTL, he is killed by Mehmed immediately after his conquest of Constantinople, but TTL he gets wise in time to avoid such an outcome.
(3) The TTL influence of Constantine XI's secret envoy is more or less negligible, but it represents a departure from OTL, in which Constantine overplayed his hand by threatening Mehmed with the release of an Ottoman pretender to the throne, thus giving Mehmed the moral and political justification that allowed him to gather his forces so quickly OTL. By sending a diplomatic envoy, the empire buys itself vital time, making the trecherous Demetrios something of an unsung hero of sorts.

[Dragos Cel Mare]

Subscribed!

[thekingsguard]

Consider me subscribed! I gotta see how you save the Byzies in 1453!

[Evilprodigy]

This I gotta see, subscribed.

[Vnix]

nice!----------

[Avitus]

Thanks for the support, any thoughts on the plot so far?

I'll try to get another update on the board later today, although it might be delayed depending on OTL happenings.

Also, I have a question for the board. Do you think that it would be plausible for the Byzantines to reunite with the Catholic church permenantly? By this point the two most powerful men in the empire (Constantine and Thomas) are unionists, and I think that there's a chance that the war weary populace will be willing to fall into line if Constantine pushed a little, especially after he and the italian mercenaries performed so well in the battle with Mehmed's army. Of course, the nobility were mostly anti union, but the Patriarch was a unionist, so I could see the people being fine with reunification but the nobles quietly plotting to rebuild the schism. Your thoughts?

[Avitus]

So sorry I havn't posted anything this week, that problem has hopefully been rectified by the massive update below

rldragon, oh yes, Vlad is going to be walking a tightrope for the rest of his life if I have anything to say about it. As for France, I have never seen them do well in a Byzantine TL, and rarely in a TL that is not completely centered around them, so France doing well here, in addition to being quite plausible, is a part of my wanting my TL to be original. I have some very interesting Ideas about what this means for England and the other British nations too.

Xgentis, the Pope is definitely playing with fire, but despite the success of Charles of Berry in Lombardy, Louis XI is hesitent to push it, since even Frederick III has his limits as to how long he will let the French beat on Italy, and Burgundy is hardly a trustworthy neighbor.

DonMegel, glad to hear you like it so much, and more it is below

Tongera, yeah, port blockading is mostly going on so that the Venetians and Genoese in exile can do something for the Italian cause. It is mostly an annoyance, but the ability to supply men and munitions by sea would be a little useful. And yes it is complicated, I look up at least 100 things each time, mostly to find out which royal is married to who and has a claim on this and that. It has actually been a very interesting way to learn about 15th century politics, but that does make it take a while. Thanks for understanding.

And now for a longer lived Duchy of Burgundy and the worlds most competent Angelos/Andelovic

1465

"Never surrender Lombardy!"-Italian saying, attributed to Pope Leo X, as his last words.

Although war is technically ongoing in northern Italy, it has mostly degenerated to simple blockades and embargoes against France. The primary reason for this is that Pius II has been busily assembling what armies and allies he can get, while Louis XI and Charles of Berry are simply preparing defenses for what lands they have already gained. Although reluctant to declare war himself, Frederick III of the Holy Roman Empire has shown himself to be a wholehearted supporter of Pope Pius II (the two were friends well before Pius’ ascent to the Chair of St. Peter.), and has sent upwards of 5,000 soldiers to fight alongside the Papal and Venetian forces. The Papal-Venetian alliance can now field roughly 25,000 men in total, after forming alliances with Florence, the Naples, and many of the smaller Italian states, all of whom fear French encroachment above all else. This alliance, called the Ligurian League, after the initial goal of liberating Genoa, now is in control of virtually all of Italy outside of French control, and is nominally headed by Pius II.

In Byzantium, the country holds its collective breath as the Emperor Vlad I and his supporters announce that his bride Jusztina is once again pregnant. Once again, as with the birth of Princess Christina, there is a general tightening of power, as the Pillars of Hagia Sophia work to tie up political loose ends, and ensure that any attempt to place Vlad’s heir as heir to the entire empire (that is, both Byzantium and Wallachia-Bulgaria) is begun and ended in the same breath. The child is born on February 27th in Thessalonica (where Vlad has been staying almost uninterrupted since his conquest of the region) and, as many had feared, is a healthy little boy. He is named Mihnea, a source of controversy in and of itself, as having a Wallachian name is interpreted by some as meaning that the boy will not have a claim on Byzantium, and by others as meaning that Vlad intends to replace Greek culture with Slavic culture.

Vlad does not immediately make any announcements regarding his son, and has a modest baptismal ceremony in Thessalonica, where his son is confirmed as heir apparent to Wallachia-Bulgaria, but not Byzantium. For now, Vlad is much more concerned with the coming campaign season. For too long he has put off his planned invasion of Serbia, and now, with his homeland affairs in order, the situation in Italy turned in such a way that Italian interference is virtually impossible, and his succession at least theoretically secure, the time seems perfect to enact his plans. His troops are ready, and his position in the empire, if not truly secure, is at least stable enough that he is not in eminent danger. A victory in Serbia, moreover, may improve his standing among the people of Byzantium, though he can’t be sure of that.

Vlad’s forces, numbering 17,000 soldiers in total, and including 3,000 levied Byzantines, 10,000 Wallachian veterans from the Balkan Crusades, and 4,000 Bulgarian levies, sets of on April 5th, only a week after the declaration of war had been made. Serbia has managed to recover most of its unity under the capable leadership of Mihailo Andelovic, but is still at a disadvantage against the Draculan army. In addition to having a large number of veteran soldiers, and a larger total number of soldiers, Vlad has a far better national standing. Because of this, the Serbians, who are still considered something of a pariah state because of their close relationship with the Ottomans at their height, stand alone, with the other two states in the area capable of providing aid, The Albanian League and the Kingdom of Hungary, both still bitterly angry with the Serbians for standing against the crusade. Aside from this, Serbia is only able to raise some 12,000 soldiers, giving them a heavy numerical disparity, although a good portion of those are more or less professionals left over from the Ottoman era.

The Imperial forces make good time, and Vlad crosses the border before the month’s end. Mihailo, acting in the name of Despot Grgur, institutes a scorched earth policy, forcing all of the peasants from the land lying between the southern border and the capital at Smederevo (1). The operation works surprisingly well, as the Serbs have grown to fear Vlad’s fierce reputation, and upon hearing of his advance are all too eager to abandon their homes if it means staying out of Vlad’s clutches. Farms and fields are burnt, as the little Kingdom of Serbia does all it can to hold together against their relentless foe. Some key fortresses are left with skeleton garrisons, but for the most part none of southern Serbia puts up real resistance. The main reason for this is that Mihailo does not believe that anything less than his main force has any chance of resisting the Draculan forces, so in his opinion leaving a larger garrison is to simply throw men and supplies away, something that he truly cannot afford.

Unable to obtain new allies, the Serbs attempt to gain aid from old ones, by asking the Ottoman Sultan Orhan II to attack Constantinople itself while Vlad’s forces are away. As it happens, Orhan II has done quite well for himself in the past few years, having no real difficulty integrating his new territories at Karaman after his total victory there back in 1462. In fact, the addition of the new territory, rather than a source of strife or a place in serious need of new administration, has turned out to be a perfect solution to Orhan’s problems with his aristocracy. The territory gained has roughly made good the loss in land area of the Kingdom of Smyrna, and although not quite as rich, is still more than enough to placate Orhan’s nobility, who by this point had begun to despair of ever making good their losses from the Balkan Crusade. By importing all of the surviving nobility from the area that has now become the Kingdom of Smyrna, Orhan is also importing an established loyal noble class that are used to Ottoman policies, all of which aids in integrating this large new territory. The one adverse effect is the removal of the native Karamanid aristocracy, but it is made easier by killing or making deals with all of the Karamanid nobles captured during the conquest. In short, the Ottomans are healthier than they have been since the failed siege of Constantinople under Mehmed II, making them a force to be reckoned with again. Still, Orhan is wary of over commitment, and rather than declaring war outright simply warns Vlad to vacate Serbia, and begins to leisurely assemble his forces on his side of the Bosporus, causing panic in Constantinople and the surrounding area.

For Vlad, this is quite annoying. Orhan is not truly an imminent threat, as Constantinople is well garrisoned and defensible enough to hold out for perhaps years in the absence of a naval blockade (something that Orhan is obviously not capable of forming), and quite nearly impossible to assault without a modern artillery train, something that Orhan certainly has, but has no means of transporting effectively across the strait. Despite this, panic in the city could ruin Vlad’s hold over the area of its own accord, to say nothing of a potential betrayal from within his trusted supporters, which is all the more likely after the birth of Mihnea, since many of his supporters only favor him so long as he has no designs on establishing a Slavic dynasty in Constantinople. His position, shaky as it is, is now being pushed to its limit by the stress of the war and the uncertainty of victory, and Vlad quickly realizes that a strong victory might by this point be a prerequisite to keeping his head, let alone his throne.

On May 3rd he finally besieges Smederevo, after nearly a week spent in deliberation over what to do about the Ottoman intervention. The march has not been kind to the Draculan army, on account of the scorched earth policy leading to a logistical nightmare. Having entered Serbia from the south with the intention of slowly and thoroughly overrunning the country region by region, Vlad has been forced to leave many of the fortresses he has passed un-garrisoned, allowing the Serbians to use them as bases to raid Vlad’s vastly overextended supply train. The supply line would be considerably shorter if the attack had begun from Bulgaria, but at the time Vlad had feared the possibility of the Serbians linking up with the less than trustworthy Macedonian aristocracy and wreaking havoc on the Thessalonica region, so he had chosen to place his forces directly between Thessalonica and the Serbian leaders. The blunder has now become obvious, and Vlad, knowing that his supplies will likely be exhausted long before he can starve the forces at Smederevo out, immediately prepares for an assault.

On the morning of May 9th, the air screams with the sounds of fire and impact, as the Draculan artillery, composed of Byzantine, Hungarian, and captured Ottoman cannons, begins ripping into the walls of Smederevo. The fortress is grand, a fine example of recent Byzantine architecture (albeit executed by the Serbians), and holds out without fail for three days. On the third, two fairly sized breaches appear not far from each other, and the Draculan forces quickly set themselves to the task of crossing the Jezava River to gain entrance to the fortress. Over 2,000 men are able to rush across a makeshift crossing before the Serbs are able to form up and attempt to drive the invaders into the river, and by this time the Imperial forces have managed to form up around the exit of their bridge to defend it and allow further soldiers to cross. The battle is fierce here, but Vlad continuously sends more men to rush across the Jezava crossing, while the Serbs choose to only commit about a third of their troops (about 3,000 men) to the area, resulting in a slow but inexorable push by the attackers. Vlad eventually crosses himself, and he and his men rush the breaches. The breaches too are heavily defended by well-trained Serbian troops, and the fighting drags on there for the remainder of the day. At nightfall Emperor Vlad Dracula and his forces are forced to withdraw, although a group is left to defend their toehold on the Serbian side of The Jezava.

The morning brings only ill news, as, for a start, the Byzantine divisions of the army are found to have almost entirely deserted during the night. News also comes that the Ottoman forces on their side of the Bosporus now number 15,000, and are still gathering. In light of this, Vlad demands a token concession of a few southern towns and 5,000 Ducats to leave the Serbs in peace, gambling on the hope that the Serbs haven’t heard about Orhan’s forces yet. His gamble pays off, and the Serbs simply count themselves lucky that no important lands are lost, and begin to attempt to salvage what they can of the land’s fertility to help ease the pain of their scorched earth policy upon the harvest. All told, the Serbs have lost 3,000 soldiers to death and 2,000 to injury, while Vlad has lost roughly even numbers of dead and wounded, plus 3,200 mostly Byzantine deserters. The war ultimately serves to weaken both powers considerably, and the Serbian concessions are considered minimal.

Vlad races to Bulgaria, and once there begins his march south to the Bosporus, gathering any forces he can along the way. Thousands of soldiers and fanatics flock to Vlad’s banner in Bulgaria, as the thought of falling back under Ottoman rule is a terror still fresh in the minds of the Bulgarians. By the time his forces have reached Thrace, his forces seem to have swollen back to about 25,000, although at least half of these are an untrained mob of Bulgarian fanatics. The Byzantines are far less willing to join up with him willingly, but Vlad is confident in his numbers by this point, and does not attempt to force conscription as he passes. In early June, he crosses the Bosporus into the territory of the Kingdom of Smyrna, who, without their King present (as Laszlo Hunyadi is still attempting to secure his position as heir to the throne in Hungary) decides it best to give safe passage to the Imperial forces.

Orhan II has continued to gather forces, but he has only managed to get 18,000 men together by June, and has not attempted to cross the strait for fear of naval intervention by the Knights of Rhodes, who have sent ships to the area to watch the situation and prevent Islamic forces from making gains. The bad news from Serbia and Vlad’s fearsome reputation have seriously hurt Ottoman moral, and Orhan is now doubting himself as a general as a result. Ultimately Orhan decides to fall back to his old standby at Bursa, and bring his forces in. Vlad is himself uncertain about assaulting or besieging Bursa, and instead takes his forces on a massive raid around Bithynia. He does set up siege lines around Bursa, but at any given time during the siege only half his forces are present, with the rest running around the countryside looting all they can find, culminating in a large group of them joining up to assault the sparsely defended city of Nicaea, which they overrun and loot heavily. Not just possessions but persons are looted from the land, and by the end of the raids Bithynia is even more thoroughly barren than southern Serbia in the aftermath of the scorched earth policy.

The siege is, despite everything, costly to maintain, and Vlad’s looting has already gained a considerable profit from the campaign. He soon negotiates peace with Orhan, with the only condition of the treaty being that all looted possessions and prisoners will remain in Vlad’s custody unless a ransom is paid for them. A few nobles are ransomed, but for the most part all the captives, numbering at least 10,000 (and more or less even in number of Turks and Byzantines), are taken back to be relocated throughout Vlad’s empire. At least 3,000 are brought to Constantinople, pushing the population of the city past 70,000 once more, and much of the money gained goes into further repairing the city, which by this point Vlad has begun to style as his capital and take an active interest in (despite having spent little of his reign there).

On August 14th Emperor Vlad I returns to Constantinople. He turns the occasion into something resembling a triumphal procession, with his soldiers marching through the streets in good order, and the looted wealth and prisoners on full display. Throughout the procession members of the Latin guard scout out the areas around Vlad himself, and more than once arrest suspicious individuals in the surrounding area, although none of the arrests result in serious sentences. The procession ends at the Hagia Sophia, where many of the treasures are left in offering, and a mass is held by the patriarch for the victorious forces, under heavy guard of course. The procession does considerably boost Vlad’s popularity, since the original reason he was accepted by the people is as a counter to the threat of an Ottoman invasion, and his successful counterattack, even without a pitched battle, has inspired a degree of confidence in him. Of course, religious strife has not been eased at all, but in the days following the triumph there is celebration of Vlad’s achievements nonetheless.

Back in May, the Ligurian League took a serious hit. Pope Pius II, de facto leader of the league, dies on May 17th after a brief illness. He had grown weak from the stress of the French invasion, and his death is no surprise to those close to him. Because of the need of a strong Italian and military presence in the next Pope, the Venetian Ludovico Trevisan was elected as Pope Leo X on June 20th, largely because he had been Captain General of the Church. The decision will quickly yield results.

The Duke of Berry moves against Florence immediately after hearing of Pius II’s death, expecting an easy victory. Florence, being a power in its own right, gives him no such thing, and its leader Piero de Medici, while no military man, knows a stalling situation when he sees it, and takes every available opportunity to slow French progress, first by maneuvering his forces near the French and allowing them to give chase without offering pitched battle. Later, once Charles has caught on to this, he withdraws into Florence, and instead hires several Condottieri bands to sabotage the French artillery’s advance, which they do by both attacking and leaving obstacles in their way. The siege doesn’t actually begin until June 15th, and within hours of his election Pope Leo X is leading his forces towards the French.

The Battle of Florence will be one of the bloodiest in the entire renaissance era, as the forces roughly evenly numbered at 30,000 each thanks to additional contributions from various benefactors on each side. The French do have an advantage in artillery, cohesion, and cavalry, but the Italians tend to be better armed and trained, with many being veteran condottieri who fear that French domination would destroy their profession altogether. On June 29th the fighting breaks out. The Italians immediately attempt to close the gap with the French to avoid artillery harassment, but are stopped by a French cavalry charge. The charge is quickly bogged down amidst the sheer number of the Italians, and the French horsemen become easy targets for crossbowmen who have begun to gather behind the infantry line. The Italians are aided by the lack of a strong defensive position for the French, who have picked a fairly flat site, most likely because of the relative inexperience of Charles of Berry. The Italians do manage to close, and from then on the French artillery ceases to be a factor. The cavalry also meet up, and although the loss of several divisions in the initial charge weakens the French, they nonetheless slowly begin to take the upper hand over the Italian cavalry.

The battle after the full infantry engagement turns into a slow grinding affair, with tremendous loss of life on both sides as they both, with almost their entire forces engaged and almost evenly matched, are left without clever strategic options to break their opponents. The battle is ultimately determined by two isolated events. The first is the wounding of the dike of Berry by a crossbow bolt in his side, which forces him to quit the field, although the bolt does not pierce any vitals and the wound is easily treated. The second is the sally of the Florentines, who assail the engaged French left flank and cut their tired opponents to pieces. The French are forced to withdraw around sunset, with some companies remaining in good order while others, especially the remnant of the left flank, simply run pell-mell. In all 20,000 men die and many more are wounded. Many of the dead are men wounded early in the day who were simply unable to be reached by any sort of aid and bleed to death waiting, or are trampled by friend or foe fighting around them. The number of the dead is quite even, but in the number of wounded and captured the Italians have clearly won, having injured an unknown number and captured 3,000 or more, plus the entire French artillery.

Neither force is truly fit to press on following the Battle of Florence, but it is nonetheless a major victory for the Ligurian League, who had begun to buy into a myth of French invincibility. Many fence sitting Italians are drawn into support of the league, and Holy Roman support increases as well. In France, the nobility are still solidly behind Louis and Charles and their antipope, but now facing the possibility of losing the war in Italy Louis XI began to look for foreign aid. The most promising candidate by this point was the Crown of Aragon, whose rulers, King John II and his son Charles of Vaina, had high hopes of reclaiming the Kingdom of Naples from its illegitimate king Ferdinand I. The main problem was the mutual loathing between John and Charles, and Louis XI soon determined that in order to utilize Aragonese aid one of them would have to be removed. His choice fell to Charles, who was both younger and heir to both Aragon and Navarra, making him a much more potentially useful ally.

The fall months yielded only a few interesting occurrences. Firstly, Orhan II began what would be one of the most important events of his reign, the relocation of the Ottoman empire’s capital. His logistical defeat at the hands of the Draculan Empire had convinced him that Bursa was too vulnerable, being situated right between the Draculan Empire and the Kingdom of Smyrna, and after the devastation of the summer he was now having difficulty in even supplying the city because of the lack of harvest crops. He decided on Konya as his new capital, despite being a recent acquisition, because of its central location and the fact that he personally had conquered it. Large scale remodeling of the city began at this time, although they would not be complete until the end of the decade. It also gained Orhan II the increased support of those in favor of his pro-eastern expansion policy, who by this point had become most of the surviving members of his court.

In Europe, Charles, Prince of Burgundy, finally had his long awaited son with his wife Isabella of Bourbon on March 1st (2). His son, who was named John, would cause the death of his mother in childbirth, and was a sickly boy from the start. Nevertheless, he survived both his complicated birth and his first year, and was named in Charles will as his heir from early on. Because of Isabella’s death, the hunt quickly began for a new wife for Charles of Burgundy, with many interested because of the prospect of a premature death of his current son. Eventually Margaret of York (3), the 19 year old sister of King Edward IV of England, was chosen, and the two were wed on July 5th, cementing a new Anglo-Burgundian alliance. In addition, by the end of the year Margaret too was announced to be pregnant, much to the joy of Duke Philip, who up until this year had feared that his son was impotent and would be the last of his line.

In France, Louis XI had his first child to survive infancy by his wife Charlotte of Savoy, a daughter named Louise, although she was not immediately betrothed to anyone, as Louis hoped to use her as a diplomatic tool in the future, a purpose better served with her available to be offered in marriage to anyone. Charles of Berry, in an attempt to legitimize his position as Duke of Lombardy, which was coming under increasing fire after his defeat, married Ippolita Maria Sforza, daughter of Francesco Sforza, who was herself using him to regain political prominence, which had been lost to her with her father’s defeat. Seeing no opportunity for advancement within the Ligurian League, which was headed by the Papacy and the Venetian Republic, neither of which had leaders interested in becoming Duke of Milan, and thus no interest in a woman whose only claim was to the Duchy of Milan. An intelligent and pragmatic woman, she became notorious among the Italians for marrying her father’s likely murderer, but did succeed in gaining political control in Lombardy, and was useful to Charles in that she helped to pacify the populace.

The final important event took place in December. Pope Leo X had, despite his victory, been on the wane thereafter. Evidently the physical stress of appearing in person at The Battle of Florence had been too much for the 64 year old Pope, as his health had rapidly begun to deteriorate thereafter. Despite this he had done much to strengthen the Ligurian League, and had travelled to Florence, Naples, and Venice in the battle’s aftermath, and been welcomed in each as a hero of the Italian states. On December 20th, after weeks of slipping in and out of consciousness from a strong fever, the Pope uttered his last words, “Never surrender Lombardy!”, to his attendants. He died later that day, his short reign as pope becoming a focal point for the Ligurian League. He had been a very holy man, and would later be named a saint in the Roman Catholic Church for his role in the Franco-Italian wars. The Papal conclave had yet to assemble to name his successor by the new year, such was the length of the funeral of the beloved soldier-pope (4).

(1) Both OTL and TTL Belgrade was in Hungarian hands at this time, and in both Smederevo was the capital after Belgrade was lost.

(2) OTL they had a single healthy daughter, Mary, and she wound up marrying into the house of Habsburg, effectively ending Burgundian power and independance. TTL Mary is butterflied, and John has shown up a couple years later, when his mother's health is already deteriorating, resulting in his poor health and her death in childbirth.

(3) His OTL third wife too, I couldn't think of a better choice to switch her out for, and connections with the House of York are something that I intend to make full use of in the future.

(4) Nobody ever makes a strong, well liked warrior pope. I figured we were due for one

[Tongera]

Isn't Ankara in a more central position in Anatolia than Konya? Also, why would a pope have generalship experience?

[Avitus]

Ankara is, but at the time Konya is larger, more important, and TTL is the site of one of Orhan's greatest accomplishments, so he picked it.

And Ludovico Trevisan (TTL's Leo X) was Captain General of the Church, meaning commander in chief of the Papal Army, IOTL. He was apparrently quite good at it, and was also a candidate for the Papacy at the same time OTL, so I made him a warrior pope.

[Xgentis]

Wasn't Burgundy power already broken by this point to not be a serious threat to France?

[Avitus]

Originally Posted by Xgentis

Wasn't Burgundy power already broken by this point to not be a serious threat to France?

Not really, in fact it reached its height under Philip the Good, who is still the Duke at the moment TTL. They were only ruined by the combination of Charles the Bold's aggressive and unsuccessful rule, and the fact that he left only his daughter Mary to succeed him. She married into the Austrian Habsburgs, and died relatively young, so that her sons took away their Habsburg heritage, not their Burgundian heritage, ultimately absorbing Burgundy as just another portion of the Habsburg Empire.

[Avitus]

kellineil, indeed I did, though in my defence I wan intending for the reference to be to the Lion of St. Mark, so I do have TTL justification

Tongera, I think I'll keep quiet on Bohemian politics for the moment, but as for the Hussites, they are probably going to end up similar to OTL as an underappreciated contributing factor in the larger Reformation. Most of the moderates are little different from Catholics at this point, while many of the radicals have either died off or moved to lands more willing to tolerate them, specifically the countries in league with the Parisian Papacy.

Russia and Ukriane will feature in one of the next two updates, though as I've yet to begin either of them at the moment I'm not sure which.

cimon, I'm fairly certain that your Venice statistic is just the city, not the considerable surrounding territory in northern Italy, which at that time was one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, and TTL has had a less severe treatment in the Italian wars equivalent. So, we can likely assume at least half a million Venetians in Italy, possibly closer to a million, and the population of Crete, Syracuse, and Venetian Crimea in addition, so Portugal scale adventuring overseas is probably not too difficult so long as Gibralter isn't hostile.

Basileus444, Even Netherlands scale power would probably be hard to keep long term for Venice given the difficulties involved, but I think I've come up with a fairly unique conclusion for the Venetian golden age.

As for Charlotte, sorry about the lack of Luther, but I was hoping to move in a different direction from his classic reformation outline. Call it Catholic bias, but I've never been sure if I believed Luther's motives were all good, given how much his own life seems to have improved after he left the church, though he certainly was right that something had to be done. TTL I want a thuroughly different leader from him, and I was noticing a lack of strong women in the TL so far (baring Empress Anna, who I've done a bit of a poor job fleshing out), so I figured this would be interesting. Have you ever known a TL with a female alternate Luther

Admittedly the Venetian navy has recieved a bit of handwaving on my part. Im assuming the Sealion to be something of a cross between a Galleon and a Galleass, with three sails, side, front, and rear cannons, and a few oars kept for tight maneuvres. I haven't gone into too much detail on them, and to be honest they were created as a side effect of a different arc, but I'm assuming that they are still relatively few in numbers, and faulty. Winning a convincing victory against the half-baked Neapolitan Navy isn't that great an achievement anyways, and the battle did see the weakness of their design being exploited, so they arent way too far ahead of OTL. I'll try to be better about tech advancement in the future. I have no idea how I'll handle it when things like trains, planes, and machine guns should be introduced

[cimon]

Avitus,

Venetian empire achieved a population of approximately half a million by 1500s
(www.theworldeconomy.org/venetian republic)

[Avitus]

Originally Posted by cimon's source

In 1557 the population of these territories was about 1.5 million.

So, considering the less devastating Italian wars we can probably assume that the population us thereabouts, and that is only the Italian lands, more than enough for a little overseas adventuring, but not even close to France, Spain, and England potential. As I said, Venice's time as a pseudo great power is running down fast, but it will be an exciting downhil ride if I have anything to say about it.

[Tongera]

Originally Posted by Avitus

So, considering the less devastating Italian wars we can probably assume that the population us thereabouts, and that is only the Italian lands, more than enough for a little overseas adventuring, but not even close to France, Spain, and England potential. As I said, Venice's time as a pseudo great power is running down fast, but it will be an exciting downhil ride if I have anything to say about it.

Catholic Venice taken after a brutal by the Orthodox Byzantines?!?!

[Onyx]

Avitus are you going to do any PODs in Asia on this TL?

[Tongera]

You said something outlining politics?

[Avitus]

cimon, thanks. As someone who is writing a TL as something as a practice to break into writing, it's nice to hear that my readers think I'm getting better. And yes, the TL is doing rather well in the Turtledoves, but I'll not jinx it by saying I think I'll win or anything

Herr Frage, a gentleman wouldn't tell, but I'm not feeling particularly gentlemanly, so I'll say that you definitely got some things right, but not all of them.

Tongera, sure. I'm American, but I don't let that color my politics much, as I feel we've done nothing especially wonderful with our power, and I feel more connected to my heritage and religion than my nationality. I'm a staunch Roman Catholic, and that colors allot of my politics. I would say I lean to the right, but I don't believe in pursecuting or alienating anyone.

As for hot button issues, I'm fine with homosexuality, including gay marriage, as long as the government does not require the Catholic church to perform it. Seperation of church and state should work both ways, and if the church only wants to allow heterosexual marriages then they should be allowed to stand for that, just as long as they aren't hurting or harassing anyone over it.

I'm a strict no abortion person, really with no exceptions. Again, I don't believe in pursecuting people over these things or standing outside abortion clinics with signs, but neither do I believe in taking away the life of someone without their consent. Of course for no abortions to work there would need to be more viable alternatives, but I will never believe that human life is not a net gain, so I'm for spending to make those alternatives work.

I feel that socialism and capitalism are both flawed systems, albeit it has taken capitalism longer to show the depths of its flaws, and that neither is "right". I don't think that they must be mutually exclusive, and that a happy medium could be reached if we could just get our minds out of the cold war for a while.

I favor strong monarchy over weak monarchy or democracy, though there definitely need to be at least a few immovable checks and balances in place, so I wouldn't say absolute monarchy, at least not quite. This stems from my belief that human beings have difficulty working together without a clear leader, and that when you tell them to work together as equals, that usually results in competition. Competition is all well and good, but when you are competing internationally, with other parties, and with other candidates within your party, I think it becomes too much, and the rate of competition becomes more destructive than its worth. Just imagine how much money is spent on the democrats and republicans fighting amongst themselves, then against eachother, every time there is an election. It boggles the mind of one such as me who rarely handles more than a few hundred dollars or so at a time.

Lastly, I don't support the death penalty, though admittedly I don't feel too strongly on the subject. If you havn't guessed by now, I don't much care for either major political party, and I have a feeling they don't much care for me.

I think that sums it up. Hopefully nobody finds my views too offensive to enjoy my writing. If you wan't to comment, fine, but don't flame or argue, that going for everyone, not just Tongera. I respect all views, those are just mine, and I hope not to let my views color my TL. People of all races, orientations, and religious afiliations will be given equal representation to the best of my ability (so long as it makes sence in the TL), but I make no promises that my abilities will be adequate to please everyone.

Update coming in the next day or two. Just curious, would anyone following but not posting like to sound off? I'd just like to get an idea of who's reading.

[Magnum]

I'm reading. It's a very enjoyable story. Keep it up

[Emperor Constantine]

Also reading very cool TL.