Batista regains popularity. July 26th movement a lost cause. And human cloning.

[Morwen Edhelwen]

I'm working on an AH Young Adult dieselpunk novel set in Cuba in the future several centuries after the failure of the July 26th movement in that world. In that world, Batista somehow stays in power for longer than he did in reality, regaining popularity in the middle of his second term through giving back certain rights such as the right to strike, improving education in the cities etc, keeping the casinos open and inviting Americans to invest in it and being a (little less, but still) repressive leader. My protagonist is a 14-year-old clone of Che Guevara, living in Cuba 198 years after this happened.
So, does anyone have an idea of a plausible historical POD where Batista somehow gains back enough popularity to stay in power until he dies, but still continues to be somewhat repressive and authoritarian and the July 26th movement is a lost cause? And United Fruit still has power in Cuba and all of Latin America except for Mexico? Or is this just too implausible to be even considered? ETA: I'm going to do some more individual research to work out how this POD will happen. So far, I've been reading Havana Before Castro: When Cuba Was A Tropical Playground to get a feel for pre-revolution Havana. Even though this story's dieselpunk, I would still like the actual POD to be historically plausible. Basically, is there any possible point during his second term where Batista could have regained popularity and US support?
Another ETA: Could a moderator please delete the other post on this in the test messages forum?

[Evan]

Originally Posted by Morwen Edhelwen

Another ETA: Could a moderator please delete the other post on this in the test messages forum?

Click the "Report Post" on the upper right corner of the post, and ask a mod to delete it. They do things like that all the time when someone posts something by mistake where it isn't supposed to be.

I'm afraid I can't help on Cuban history, though.

[Morwen Edhelwen]

Originally Posted by Evan

Click the "Report Post" on the upper right corner of the post, and ask a mod to delete it. They do things like that all the time when someone posts something by mistake where it isn't supposed to be.

I'm afraid I can't help on Cuban history, though.

Thanks, Evan. Can anyone help on the history?

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by Morwen Edhelwen

Thanks, Evan. Can anyone help on the history?

have the Granma sink in a storm, or all of the M-26-J get captured as soon as they land, and get Pais et al in a Havana gun battle. Or, have Batista not become a completely corrupt dick in his second period in Office.

[Morwen Edhelwen]

Originally Posted by NothingNow

have the Granma sink in a storm, or all of the M-26-J get captured as soon as they land, and get Pais et al in a Havana gun battle. Or, have Batista not become a completely corrupt dick in his second period in Office.

Or how about this scenario? A combination of the last two. Batista re-implements the reforms he took away, giving back the right to strike etc, but his government is still influenced by the US, the Havana casinos are still owned by Americans, but with a decreased mob presence (still enough to make him rich and turn Havana into a Caribbean Las Vegas). He uses this popularity to capture M-26-7 as soon as the Granma lands and the M-26-7 leadership (with peasant guerrillas) gets involved in a gun battle with a huge number of casualties. Is there any way he could have regained support for himself during that second period? And this means that from 1973 (his death) onwards all the presidents are aligned with the US in some way (how far the policies are tied to US goals varies according to each president) and Cuba has huge sugar and tobacco industries and a tourist industry focusing on casinos. ETA: Thanks to the mod who deleted the other thread!

[Morwen Edhelwen]

bump. Anyone have other suggestions?

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by Morwen Edhelwen

Or how about this scenario? A combination of the last two. Batista re-implements the reforms he took away, giving back the right to strike etc, but his government is still influenced by the US, the Havana casinos are still owned by Americans, but with a decreased mob presence (still enough to make him rich and turn Havana into a Caribbean Las Vegas). He uses this popularity to capture M-26-7 as soon as the Granma lands and the M-26-7 leadership (with peasant guerrillas) gets involved in a gun battle with a huge number of casualties. Is there any way he could have regained support for himself during that second period? And this means that from 1973 (his death) onwards all the presidents are aligned with the US in some way (how far the policies are tied to US goals varies according to each president) and Cuba has huge sugar and tobacco industries and a tourist industry focusing on casinos. ETA: Thanks to the mod who deleted the other thread!

It'd work. Especially if it's durring Operation Verano, in 1958, but if Batista has a bit more tact, he might not have given M-26-7 a chance to form. Seriously, have him campaign in the 1952 election on a better platform, and a pledge to continue Carlos Prio Socarrás' more civil policies, and then have him either legitimately win, or Steal it, instead of staging a coup. (But that negates the plot, so forget it.)

Then have them develop the Cigar cartel (maybe under a trusted lackey's oversight in the 50's) and the domestic oil industry (they have massive estimated reserves, so it's got promise, but they're also really deep in the strait so it's not been available until very recently,) along the way, and use that money to develop some of the social programs Castro put into play, but not all, (Bread, Circuses, and some National parks do wonders to shut a populace up about some more nasty things.) And do have the government be less visibly corrupt. Think Sale of the Century corrupt, not Indian Police Officer corrupt.

Starting at some point legitimate businessman would displace organized crime in some of the more visible areas, like Gambling, if it was formally legalized. It's what happened in Vegas.

It won't be massively beat you over the head dystopic, but it'll keep people in line. Especially if Central America and the Caribbean is generally worse, and they have an MLB team that regularly takes home the world series.

But IIRC, United Fruit never really had a foothold in Cuba, since there wasn't really anything grown that'd be worth their time.

Originally Posted by MacCaulay

As a fellow writer, I'm not sure if you'd even have to explain why it's different. "The Communists didn't win, Batista stayed around." Heck, after 200 years all most people know about conflicts are the winners and the losers.

Finer details aren't usually something the general public is aware of, even if the information is there.

Yeah. Unless your plans tie into the revolution that intimately, I doubt it'd be that important normally, but you know, Clone.

[Dan1988]

Originally Posted by NothingNow

have the Granma sink in a storm, or all of the M-26-J get captured as soon as they land, and get Pais et al in a Havana gun battle. Or, have Batista not become a completely corrupt dick in his second period in Office.

The latter is important. What is important is that before his 1952 coup d'état, Batista was popular as a social reformer (have a look at the 1940 Constitution - very progressive for its time, though beaten by others including the Mexican Constitution of 1917). Once he did his deals with the Mafia, and angry that he's at the bottom of the polls against much better candidates, did he become the Batista we all know and love, including Havana as the Las Vegas of the Caribbean. If Batista did not run in the 1952 elections, combined with him not doing his deals with the Mafia, that would be one way in which Batista would retain popularity - by not involving himself in Cuban politics. Which means no M-26-J. Which means that Ché is either still in Mexico or back home in Argentina.