A successfull Argentina: how does world history changes?

[Admiral Brown]

I'd like to write a TL where Argentina continues in the path in which she was at the begining of the XXth Century, and becomes a democratic first world country, with a GDP per capita similar to Australia or Canada, and similar living conditions.

My idea is to write short text describing a present-day fully developped Argentina. The previous history (and it¿s changes, from OTL perspective) would be revealed gradually.

The Pod would be at some point between 1910 and 1930 (I've not decided yet). It would be a local POD.

The thing is, how much do you think the world would change of Argentina becomes a first world country? I d' assume that, even if the POD is in 1912, there'd still be a WWI. I don't think that an Argentina on the Entente's side would change the outcome of the world much. But, could I assume there'd still be a fascist Italy and a nazi Germany?

Now, if the POd is in 1930 (let's say there's no coup against President Yrigoyen), would nazism still arrise? Would there still be a nazi Germany? A WWII? A cold war, afterwards?

since i'd like to focus more on Argentina, I'd rather not invent a whole new story for the world (unless I can conect the changes with the events in Argentina). Is that reasonable? Or should world story be very different? And, if so, different how

All ideas are welcome!

[Gonzaga]

I assume that any POD you pick between 1910 and 1930 would have gradual effects in Argentina, both politically and economically, and so they wouldn't have many influences outside South America. So I think that you shouldn't change Europe and the US too much because of this, and focus your TL in Argentina. Let fascism, nazism and WWII still happen, with minimal butterflies.

[tonsofun]

If Argentina does become a 1st world country. How would this affect the Falklands. Can a rich Argentina build the muscle needed to keep them or is it going down the OTL route and just ask.

[Faralis]

Originally Posted by tonsofun

If Argentina does become a 1st world country. How would this affect the Falklands. Can a rich Argentina build the muscle needed to keep them or is it going down the OTL route and just ask.

I cant see a democratic Argentina trying to take the isles by the force, maybe a mediated by US deal with the UK ( like almost happened in OTL ).

A first world economy in South America will benefit the rest of the continent, but I do not know enough to speculate on the butterflies.

[tonsofun]

Originally Posted by Faralis

I cant see a democratic Argentina trying to take the isles by the force, maybe a mediated by US deal with the UK ( like almost happened in OTL ).

A first world economy in South America will benefit the rest of the continent, but I do not know enough to speculate on the butterflies.

The Falklands have always been a sour point in relations by UK and Argentina. The UK would never give it up unless they were forced to.
But I can imagine a 1st world Argentina would have a few right wing politicians who would advocate war for them. A developed Argentina would stand a much better chance at retaking them.

[Blackfox5]

There would be limited impact outside of Latin America. Unless we ascribe everything to aggressive butterflies, nothing that happens in Argentina is going to impact WWI or WWII. I think the impact to the world would be very limited until the compounding economic growth of Argentina makes it an important player in the world economy around the 1980s/1990s. Until then, its impact will likely be limited to Latin America.

In Latin America, a developed, advance Argentina is going to affect its neighbors, bolstering democratic factions in Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil. Uruguay will unlikely have any period of dictatorship. We might also butterfly away both Salvador Allende's election in Chile and the Pinochet coup afterwards. The Southern Cone becomes a dependable region of democratic capitalism/social democracy. Brazil won't be as impacted, but with a strong set of democracies to its south, some of its missteps and problems may be avoided.

Other possibilities is the increase of Argentinian UN peace keeping or local intervention. For example, once Peru looks like it may collapse because of the Shining Path, we might see Argentina take steps to bolster Peruvian democracy, or lead a democratic Latin American front against Communist guerillas. By the very nature of its government, Argentina would become a de facto ally with the US, and probably take over a limited role in preventing a spread of Communism in the region, but without the problems of imperialist accusation that the US would face. It would also be more supportive of building democracy instead of a reflexive attitude of supporting dictators as a bulwark against Communism. But with an able partner in Latin America, the US might pursure different strategies as well.

When the Trilateral Commission forms, it might be more of a Quadlateral Commision (probably with a better name) coordinating the advanced economies of Europe, North America, Japan, and the Southern Cone. As such, Argentina would become an important player in international economics. In fact, Argentina might be an original member of the G7 if its economy was big enough. Buenos Aires becomes the center for South American banking, and Argentinean companies become globally competitive, especially in its home markets of South America. They probably also expand across the ocean to Africa where Argentinean companies don't have the baggage of European colonialism.

[Simon]

Originally Posted by tonsofun

The Falklands have always been a sour point in relations by UK and Argentina. The UK would never give it up unless they were forced to.

After the world wars there wasn't really much strategic value to the place, the only reason they ever stayed British was because the residents wished to remain British subjects. Which considering how the Argentinian economy went off the deep end after the 1929 and never fully recovered plus the various military coups and dictatorships is hardly surprising. If Argentina stays democratic and has a strong economy then links with them might eventually become more appealing than a UK which is thousands of miles away and withdrawing from empire and foreign commitments. At the very least I'd expect to see some sort of shared sovreignty. If Argentina is rich enough I could see them effectively bribing the islanders with special economic payments/conditions to get them to agree.

[Ferreolus]

Originally Posted by tonsofun

The Falklands have always been a sour point in relations by UK and Argentina.

So has been Gibraltar between Britain and Spain. Yet I can't see Spain going to war over it.

The UK would never give it up unless they were forced to.

What makes you think so? After all they have given away almost their entire world-spanning empire more or less voluntarily.

But I can imagine a 1st world Argentina would have a few right wing politicians who would advocate war for them. A developed Argentina would stand a much better chance at retaking them.

The Falklands are a basically a few unimportant rocks. There are a lot of similar territorial conflicts, and while they might linger for decades, most of them never lead to war.

Argentine had claimed the Falkland Islands for decades without invading. That they did in 1982 had domestic reasons. Basically the Videla dictatorship sought to divert public attention from domestic failures, i.e. the economic woes. A democratic and economically prospering country would have had much more to lose by such an action, so I can't seeing ATL Argentine invade the Falklands.

I'm pretty sure the situation would be as it is today and was before the war (i.e. Britain occupying the islands and Argentine claiming them, but not actively pursuing the issue), or alternatively a similar solution like it was done with the Aland Islands.