What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[LOTLOF]

August 14, 1920

The city of Warsaw falls. Red Army forces under the command of Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky storm into the Polish capital as defenses collapse into chaos. It is the decisive moment in the Soviet – Polish war. More than two hundred thousand Polish soldiers are killed or captured with the remainder routed. For all effects the Polish Army has been destroyed and all of Poland is now at the Red Army’s mercy. Marshal Pilsudski along with most of his staff and much of the Polish government is captured and summarily executed. The Soviet Socialist Republic of Poland is proclaimed.

A war weary and exhausted Europe is now open to communist invasion.

[Kome]

Wouldnt the Red Army be more than a little bit war weary as well at this point?

[LOTLOF]

Certainly. Their logistics are also fragile and they lack heavy industry. However they have just put down the Whites and defeated the Poles. And unlike just about all the other nation states the Soviet Union sees itself as getting stronger. Lenin would have seen this as a golden opportunity to bring on the communist deluge and would have pressed forward no matter the difficulties. He wouldn't have only been relying on the Red Army's strength but on communist supporters in other states wekening them and supporting the invasions from without by revolt from within. It doesn't really matter how weak you are so long as your enemy is weaker.

The sudden fall of Poland and the very real threat of communist invasion will have very interesting effects in Weimar Germany as well as in England and France.

[LOTLOF]

August 15, 1920

In the Wilhelmstrasse an emergency meeting was being held with just four individuals. Friedrich Ebert, first President of the Weimar republic, Gustav Stresemann the Foreign Minister, and Gustav Noske Minister of Defense were the men in control of the government. Standing there rigidly was Generaloberst Hans von Seeckt; commander of the Reichswehr.

It was telling that this meeting had not been called by President Ebert but by the general. Since before the end of the Great War Germany had been wracked by revolt. In Kiel, in Berlin, in Bavaria, in Saxony, and elsewhere there had been calls for revolution. Not far from where they were meeting the Spartacists had tried to incite a red revolution similar to the one in Russia. The deaths of Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht had stopped it, but had also given the cause a couple of martyrs.

The harsh and humiliating terms of the Treaty of Versailles had incited immense anger and hatred throughout Germany, especially by members of the right. They blamed the current government for accepting the treaty rather than blame the previous regime that had initiated and lost the Great War.

The fact was none of the men present felt the treaty was just. They all agreed it was a diktat that the Allies had forced upon them, something to be resisted and opposed if at all possible. The fact was they had accepted the terms not because they agreed with them but simply because their military and economic position had been such that there had been no choice. Had they not agreed the French, the British, and the Americans would have conquered all of Germany within six months at most. They had signed the treaty to save Germany.

The people refused to see it that way.

Those of the extreme left felt the republic was betraying the workers by not creating soviets and handing over power to them. Those of the right loudly shouted that the war had not been lost in the field but instead that the army had been stabbed in the back. There were semi-independent Freikorps made up of armed veterans that were roaming the eastern provinces and openly hostile to democracy and to the republic. Just last March five thousand of them had occupied Berlin during the failed Kapp Putsch.

The Putsch had been put down thanks to strikes by the working class not by the Reichswehr. Von Seeckt had been in command then as well and had done nothing, refusing to either aid or put down the attempt. "Reichswehr do not fire on Reichswehr." He had said.

This was the reality Ebert and his compatriots faced. They were trying to hold together a fragile republic in a country with no democratic tradition with enemies on all sides while forced to rely on an army whose loyalties they could not be sure of.

“Gentlemen,” general von Seeckt began. “The Poles have been defeated and we stand in mortal peril. I must state most clearly that the Reichswehr is no condition to hold our frontiers, never mind repel this enemy. To defend our beloved fatherland I am here to demand recreation of a conscript army.”

[Paul V McNutt]

Severral flocks of butterflys are swarming around this TL.

[LOTLOF]

Ebert looked stunned, as though after so many internal crises this external threat might be enough to finally shatter him. He was not a revolutionary. ‘I hate it like sin.’ He had said. Yet by a cruel twist of fate he’d found himself forced to bring the monarchy to an end and help establish the republic. He had never sought power, it had been forced on him and he had reluctantly accepted it to prevent his country from slipping into the abyss. Now, again, he was being forced to determine his country’s fate.

Ebert was given a moment to compose himself and gather his thoughts as Stresemann spoke. “Generaloberst are you aware of what you are asking? There is no possible way we could disguise such a thing. It would be a blatant violation of one of the key clauses of the Versailles Treaty. The Entente would never tolerate it.” Stresemann was well aware that certain aspects were already being violated. For example Germany was no longer permitted to have a General Staff. It still existed; it was being called the Truppenamt (Troop Office). However they could only get away with violations that could be hidden.

“Nevertheless, on behalf of the Army I must insist.” Von Seeckt said rigidly.

“And how exactly would we justify this to the Allies?” Stresemann asked.

“That is not my concern,” Von Seeckt replied. “Diplomacy is a matter for the government. My responsibility is solely the defense of the nation. I expect the government to do whatever is necessary to preserve the state.”

And the Army, Ebert thought bitterly. The words and the attitude reminded him of November 1918. Back then Ebert had had no idea just how serious the situation on the Western Front was. Though he had been Chancellor the military had managed to keep the truth hidden from him and from the rest of the Kaiser’s government. He had believed the propaganda that they were winning the war. When general Groener had called him with the Army’s demand for an armistice it had come as a shock.

The Army had been defeated.

The Army had called for an end to the fighting.

The Army had insisted it could not continue the war and that the treaty be signed.

Yet somehow they had managed to avoid all responsibility. They were once again coming to him with demands and expecting him to satisfy them and take all the risk. If this provoked an Allied invasion and brought about the end of Germany everyone would point to him. The generals would not take any of the blame. Just like in November they would walk away with clean hands.

That needs to change. Ebert thought. He had originally agreed that the Army should be allowed to maintain all of its traditions without any interference. Since then though he’d watched the generals remain silent about the situation at the end of the war. As he and the other Socialists were being branded traitors not one general had stepped forward to admit the Army had been beaten in the field. Despite the loyalty he had already shown, von Seeckt and the generals had stood by and done nothing during the Kapp Putsch. Now he was being pushed to violate the Versailles Treaty for the benefit of those same generals. He had no illusions as to who would receive the blame if things went badly.

There needs to be change. He thought once more. The idea did not make him happy. Just as with the November revolution he did not want such deep fundamental change. Yet, just as with the founding of the republic he believed now that it was necessary. The Army felt itself to be above the state and not a servant of it. If this attitude remained then the republic could not survive in the long term.

“Is the situation really so bad?” Stresemann asked as Ebert was still in thought.

“With the fall of Poland the enemy will literally be at our border.” Von Seeckt coolly began to outline the situation. “East Prussia is already cut off and will have to be abandoned. In the case of invasion we shall have to fall back to the Oder.”

The three faces looking at him were completely stunned. What the commander of the Reichswehr was calmly suggesting was that they abandon a quarter of their country! For all the great battles on the Western Front the Allies had never placed a single foot on German soil. In the east the Russian army had only managed it at the very start of the war before being permanently expelled. What von Seeckt described would be a disaster not seen since the days of Napoleon.

“The Bolsheviks can’t be that strong!” Noske said.

“My staff estimates Russian strength in Poland to stand at about seven hundred thousand.” Von Seeckt said with a lecturing tone. If he felt fear at such a number he did not show it. “What additional reserves the enemy has are unknown. We estimate they have about one hundred airplanes of various models. As we currently have no planes at all this will give them another major advantage. Given the Reichswehr is limited to one hundred thousand men without tanks, without heavy artillery, deficient in light artillery and in machine guns I cannot even guarantee you that we will be able to hold on the Oder.”

The generaloberst stopped to allow the information to penetrate. He wanted these men well and truly scared of the impending red menace. While everything he had just told them was true he had very carefully chosen to omit a few details.

The Russian industrial base was in even worse shape now than it had been when the Czar’s armies collapsed. The Russians had virtually no motorized transport and outside of their cavalry brigades were slow moving and lethargic. They were lacking in artillery and machine guns and had no tanks whatsoever. Their greatest weakness was their lack of logistics. From all reports the Russians were having trouble just keeping so many men fed, they had to swarm through whatever countryside they occupied like locust just to survive. The Russians were chronically short of ammunition; not only for their artillery but for their small arms as well. They’d been forced to rely on bayonet charges in most of their battles with the Poles. As in previous centuries the best weapon the Russians had was their nearly countless number of peasant soldiers.

The Russians had won as much because of Polish weakness as because of any inherent strength. Von Seeckt felt certain that if properly equipped and led the Reichswehr would easily crush this eastern rabble. That was not the impression he wanted to give though.

This was an opportunity to restore the Heer to its former glory. He wanted to maneuver these men into helping him build the army back into what it once was. For that he needed to play on their fears and make the danger as great as possible.

The threat was real; he was only disguising the extent of it. East Prussia really would have to be sacrificed and a retreat to the Oder was possible though he did not deem it likely. All sacrifices would be worthwhile however if the end result was a fully restored Army and nation.

“What of the Freikorps?” Noske asked. “They can help.”

“They are nothing but a militia,” von Seeckt said dismissively. “Good enough for putting down uprisings but not for an actual campaign. We will do well to integrate them into the Reichswehr.”

They were also good enough to occupy Berlin and now you want them as part of the regular army. Ebert thought. The members of the various Freikorps were extremely hostile to the current government. Men who would be eager to stage a coup if told to do so by their commander.

“Generaloberst, what will you do if this provokes an Allied invasion from the west?” Stresemann asked.

“We will form a defensive front on the Rhine and resist their advance as best we can.”

Von Seeckt added nothing more.

The implication was obvious, if the Allies actually invaded Germany would lose.

“I trust you understand that should we proclaim a conscript army we will likely provoke a French invasion while the British will reconstitute their blockade.” Stresemann pointed out.

“Gentlemen we have a hungry bear in front of us and wolves behind us.” Von Seeckt said. “If we move the wolves may attack. If we do not move however the bear will certainly devour us.”

Von Seeckt reached into his coat and produced what he felt was his trump card. He placed a plain envelope on the desk before President Ebert.

“If you refuse my request then you may have my resignation. You will alone be responsible for whatever may come.” Von Seeckt said.

Ebert’s eyes widened as he looked at the envelope. He was sure this was just a maneuver meant to put added pressure on him, but without even realizing it von Seeckt had just given the President an unimaginable gift.

Quickly picking up the envelope Ebert spoke for the first time. “I accept your resignation general, you are dismissed.”

[Snake Featherston]

The Soviets capture Warsaw, they can't go very much further. In 1920 the various Communist Putsches were being suppressed, and the victory would be extremely expensive for the Red Army, and complicate the campaign against Wrangel. The only likely result is that the USSR grabs the OTL portions of Poland it did in 1939 and those parts remain in the USSR and thus Ukrainian nationalism may be stillborn in the ATL.

Of course by the time something like the Nazis show up, the Soviets have little reason to allow the Nazis to gain much power, and a lot to gain by attacking fascist repression if they play their cards right.

[LOTLOF]

August 26, 1920

Stresemann was at least glad to see the diplomatic niceties were going to be extended. In the conference room a table with enough seats for his small party had been provided. Millerand and Lloyd George were already seated at their respective tables, each with a number of aids and assistants. No one tried to insist that they remain standing and there was no blatant insult being offered them. That was an improvement over the last time the Germans had been invited to Paris.

Stresemann wondered just how long the civility would last. Judging by the fury Millerand was openly displaying he thought it might not last long. French hostility did not surprise him, truthfully if Millerand were anything else that would have taken Stresemann off guard. The real question was David Lloyd George and just where the British stood.

The man had once campaigned (and won) under the slogan, ‘hang the Kaiser.’ He had also made it quite clear he meant to squeeze out every last pfennig in reparations. He was obviously no friend of Germany’s. At the same time though he had refused to consider the more extreme demands of that damned Clemenceau. The French would have occupied everything up to the left bank of the Rhine and even split the Fatherland up into individual states. He and Wilson had restrained Clemenceau. Wilson out of the idealistic belief in self-determination. Lloyd George out of more pragmatic considerations; after all if Germany was bankrupted and ruined who exactly would pay all these reparations?

To Stresemann it was very sad to think that once mighty Germany had no friends at all in the world. Oh Sweden and Denmark were still on good terms, as were a handful of others. To all the nations that counted though Germany was still a pariah. In such a situation the best he could hope for was a nation such as the British Empire who only wanted to use his country. That was infinitely better than the French who would gladly lay his beloved homeland to waste and sow the fields with salt.

The conference soon began. As they were in Paris Prime Minister Millerand acted as host and naturally began the proceeding.

“What do you damn Huns believe you are playing at? If you think we will allow you to mock us you are sadly mistaken!”

So much for civility,Stresemann thought. “I must presume you are referring to the recent emergency decrees President Ebert was forced to implement?”

“I am talking about your blatant attempt to ignore the peace treaty! The ink is barely dry and you are already trying to violate its terms!”

Yes, and if you were in our position you would do exactly the same. “My country is threatened from the east as I am sure you are aware. Every nation has a right to defend itself.”

“We left you an army and navy for that purpose,” Millerand said.

“You left us just enough soldiers to maintain our internal security, not to fight a war against a great power.”

“We did not spend four years fighting for our lives simply to let you try again.” Millerand said.

“The Landwehr is no more than a militia meant strictly for defense. It will pose no threat to France or any other nation. It will not be incorporated into the Reichswehr or allowed to step foot onto foreign soil.”

“Monsieur I would thank you not to speak to me as though I were a fool,” Millerand said with his anger clearly mounting. “It takes no more than a word to set your soldiers marching whatever you call them. An army is as offensive or defensive as its generals wish it to be. France has no intention of allowing Germany to rearm! We demand you immediately cease arming more soldiers and honor the terms of the Peace Treaty!”

Ebert had given him carte blanche to negotiate whatever terms he could. There were only two set conditions. Germany would continue to arm and they would not permit Allied forces to cross the Rhine or enter the Ruhr. It was dangerous, but Ebert felt they could not survive otherwise.

“We cannot hope to defeat the Red Army with the Reichswehr as it now stands.” Stresemann said calmly. “We intend to defend ourselves as best we can.”

“We already have our soldiers in the Rhineland,” Millerand reminded him. “It would not be hard to occupy all of it and the Ruhr as well.”

“Technically you would be within your rights to occupy the Rhineland,” Stresemann said maintaining his outward calm. It would be a terrible loss, but so long as it was only temporary Germany could withstand it. The Ruhr was a whole other matter. Without its coal and iron and factories the German economy would grind to an immediate halt. “However you have no right to cross the Rhine or enter the Ruhr. We would consider such an act a violation of the treaty. We would consider the entire treaty abrogated by you and would resist any such advance.”

Millerand grew red in the face. “Monsieur you have gall, I grant you that much. You yourselves openly violate the terms and yet you accuse us of breaking the treaty when we act to enforce it? Understand that if you do not obey you will be brought to obedience!”

“If you attack us in violation of the treaty which you imposed on us we will defend ourselves with all our might.”

“You will lose,” Millerand said with a great deal of conviction and satisfaction.

“Yes, very likely we will.” Stresemann said. He was pleased to see the surprise on the Prime Minister’s face. Undoubtedly the man had expected him to vehemently deny the possibility and loudly shout about German strength. Instead he would proclaim the exact opposite. “We are not strong enough to defeat you and if you attack us we are near certain to fall. However, if that is the case Prime Minister the Allies will be left to fight a communist enemy with all the manpower and resources of Russia combined with the industry of Germany. I will wish you well.”

Millerand looked as though he’d bitten into a lemon. That was not a prospect he found pleasant. Worse, if Germany really did collapse it was a situation likely to materialize.

“I don’t believe there is any need for us to go quite that far,” David Lloyd George spoke up at last. “No one wishes to restart the war.” Given the look on Millerand’s face Stresemann was not quite so sure about that. “We are however concerned about this sudden rearmament.”

“Prime Minister the situation is very simple,” Stresemann said. “The forces left to us are simply insufficient to fight a general war against a strong adversary. If you wish us to prevent this red tide from sweeping all the way to the Channel coast you will have to give us a certain amount of leeway and support.”

“Support?” Millerand said with obvious distaste. “After what you barbarians did French soil? After Louvain and the rest of Belgium you ask for our support?”

“I speak of my country fighting not only for its own survival but for the freedom of all of Europe. If you expect us to manage this while being bound hand and foot by the treaty then I must tell you that you are expecting a miracle. If we are to be strong enough to fight this war you will have to agree to some revisions of the treaty.”

“Never.” Millerand said instantly.

“Then you may want to mobilize as you are too likely to have the Russians coming to visit you soon.”

As Stresemann had expected the French Prime Minister had no comment regarding French mobilization.

“I think we can agree,” David Lloyd George said to his counterpart. “That given the circumstances it might be wise to negotiate some revision of the treaty. It does serve all our interests to have Germany strengthened to some degree.” There was very clear emphasis on that one word.

Millerand did not look happy with that statement but did not immediately object.

Lloyd George shifted his focus to Stresemann. “I must however make it quite clear any unilateral violation of the treaty on Germany’s part will be unacceptable. The present circumstances may force us to make certain alterations, however the treaty remains valid and we will not tolerate certain violations.”

Stresemann did his best not to reveal his great satisfaction. Getting the allies to agree to any negotiations on the Versailles Treaty was a great victory in and of itself. Originally the Germans had not been allowed to negotiate at all. They had been handed the treaty and told to sign on pain of renewed war.

Even more interesting was the hint that the British at least were only concerned about ‘certain violations.’ What were the key British interests? What might they be lax on? Just how much room for maneuver was there?

Stresemann would have to try and find out as much as he could and attempt to make the British, if not friends, at least more tolerant of a renewed stronger Germany. The French were obviously unalterably opposed to any such improvement. The negotiations would be difficult and would undoubtedly drag out for some time.

Stresemann knew that was just fine. Every day Germany would be getting stronger. So long as the Allies did not invade his country this conference would be a success.

[couldawouldashoulda]

what effect would a soviet victory at warsaw have on the situations in the US and Latin America?

[LOTLOF]

I don't see any of this having much of an effect on Latin America.

In the US the sight of a militaristic aggressive Soviet Union and a rearming Germany will make many people in Washington as well as in general question what was the point of the war? A renewed red scare is possible while in general the US will be slightly more conservative and isolationist than it was in OTL.

Outside of Europe the greatest effect will be seen on Japan.

[machine3589]

I`m really liking this TL. Keep it up!

[Max Sinister]

As you'll know, some Germans thought IOTL about cooperating with the SU against the western allies. Stresemann was against this and warned: "If they manage to fly the red flag over Berlin, they'll be happy enough with that and give the rest of Germany (=west of the Elbe) to France to devour."

[couldawouldashoulda]

what about the impact on the events taking place in mexico around this time?

[ObssesedNuker]

Don't have too much knowledge of this period, but don't the Reds still have to finish expunging the Whites from Siberia? And I am also sure that Lenin and Trotsky would prefer to avoid fighting Germany, France, and Britain combined, not to mention the possibility of also fighting Japan, who are in the Russian Far East. Even if on a victory high, they have to see that such a combination might be too much?

I think those factors would combine to prevent the Soviets from going beyond Poland...

On the other hand, wasn't Stalin a supporter of the attack on Poland and had a hand in it? Does that mean a victory on Warsaw is a boost to his prestige?

[Adler17]

Originally Posted by LOTLOF

August 14, 1920

The city of Warsaw falls. Red Army forces under the command of Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky storm into the Polish capital as defenses collapse into chaos. It is the decisive moment in the Soviet – Polish war. More than two hundred thousand Polish soldiers are killed or captured with the remainder routed. For all effects the Polish Army has been destroyed and all of Poland is now at the Red Army’s mercy. Marshal Pilsudski along with most of his staff and much of the Polish government is captured and summarily executed. The Soviet Socialist Republic of Poland is proclaimed.

A war weary and exhausted Europe is now open to communist invasion.

Informationfan, yes we have. Most of the Polish government are dead.

Adler

[machine3589]

IT LIVES!!!!

[LOTLOF]

Wow... it's nice to be appreciated. Thanks.

[LordCalner]

I have a reason to live again....

[stubear1012]

It is good to see you posting again. I have enjoyed this timeline and look forward to seeing how it develops!

[Adler17]

LOTLOF, good to see you back here.

Adler