Ethiopia Triumphant

[The Sandman]

My two questions, for anyone who knows more about Ethiopian history than I do (not hard) are:

1. After Adowa, could the Ethiopians have made a serious attempt to conquer Italian East Africa?

2. What the aftermath of such an attempt be if it were to succeed?

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by thesandman

My two questions, for anyone who knows more about Ethiopian history than I do (not hard) are:

1. After Adowa, could the Ethiopians have made a serious attempt to conquer Italian East Africa?

2. What the aftermath of such an attempt be if it were to succeed?

I don't recall the prince's name, but just before World War I, the contender to the Ethiopian throne was favored by the Ottoman Empire, but he was barred from the throne due to his conversion to Islam. If Ethiopia had joined the Central Powers...

[The Sandman]

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(/shameless plug)

Adowa, however, was rather earlier (1896 if I recall). Basically, the Italians tried to invade Ethiopia and were routed. Considering how the Sudan and the Horn had been hotspots for years, and Fashoda was scheduled to occur two years later, I would think that the addition of an African power, one that had just utterly crushed a European one, to the mix should shake things up a little.

[The Sandman]

Alright, in an attempt to start some discussion of this topic, and to finally do some form of TL, here goes:

March 1896: Battle of Adowa occurs as historically, except that this time the Ethiopians bag the entire Italian army of 14,000 men, half of the entire Italian force in East Africa at the time. The Ethiopians lose 20,000 soldiers, leaving them with 100,000 men for the invasion of Eritrea. While ammunition for their guns is low, captured Italian supplies give the Ethiopians enough for one more battle. Emperor Menelik, after considering his options, decides to go for the knockout blow. The Ethiopians begin marching towards the port of Assab, in southern Eritrea. Italian efforts to stop them are hampered by local resistance and the loss of the colonial governor (who was also the Italian general at Adowa). By the end of March, the surviving Italian troops are besieged in Assab.

April 1896: Despite the best efforts of the Regia Marina, the Italians in Assab are forced to surrender. With the elimination of the remaining Italian forces in Eritrea, Ethiopian troops spread out throughout the Italian colony, establishing their rule over the area. Ethiopian attempts in the world press to portray the Eritrean invasion as a consequence of Italian skullduggery in the Treaty of Wichale are generally successful; similar efforts with foreign diplomats are somewhat less so. At this point, however, Eritrea is a fait accompli, and the European powers have their own positions to consider. A speedy end to this rather embarrassing conflict is desired, and the Italians will simply have to accept it.

May-October 1896: Peace negotiations drag on for several months, ending only when the Ethiopians threaten to move into Italian Somaliland as well. In exchange for minor reparations and the return of Italian prisoners, Eritrea is ceded to the Ethiopians in perpetuity.

I'm not sure where this would go from here, but I do have a few speculations as to its effects on the European alliances. IMHO, both Austria and the Ottoman Empire would be quite pleased with an Ethiopian victory, perhaps to the extent of offering that country some form of monetary or technical support. I also think that France would, after some hesitation, weigh in on the side of Ethiopia. After all, that Djibouti-Dakar railroad they were after would of necessity have to go through Ethiopia, and a strong Ethiopia could be used as leverage against the British in Sudan. The French would also want to insure that they would be able to keep Djibouti. In the other corner, you would of course have Italy, along with Russia (opposition to Ottomans and Austria) and possibly Germany (opposition to France) and Britain (same).

Feel free to add C&C, along with your own ideas on where this could go!

[Wozza]

Imagine the effect on racial theories at the time.
Though no-one ever took the Italians seriously

I am sure people would be looking for all sorts of "white" roots to Ethiopia, invoking Solomon and Prester John.
It would be an entertaining variation on the "black Aryan" satire in Scoop

Would it inspire a different reaction to the 1935 crisis?

[The Sandman]

In this TL, I'd say that the historical '35 crisis is unlikely at best. I doubt the Italians will be willing to wait that long for revenge. Also, the French might be more willing to press the issue over Fashoda if they have the prospect of Ethiopian help.

Major European war in 1898 because of Ethiopian actions? Could be interesting.

And yes, the racial impact would be interesting. And the Italians would be taken even less seriously.

[Grimm Reaper]

And so Ethiopia gets Eritrea and Italian Somalia added to the core territory. Hmm, and now they also border Tanganyika aka German East Africa including Tanzania, Zanzibar, Rwanda and Burundi AND a small isolated Ottoman province now part of southern Sudan.

If that isn't a good reason to join the Allies in WWI...

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

And so Ethiopia gets Eritrea and Italian Somalia added to the core territory. Hmm, and now they also border Tanganyika aka German East Africa including Tanzania, Zanzibar, Rwanda and Burundi AND a small isolated Ottoman province now part of southern Sudan.

If that isn't a good reason to join the Allies in WWI...

Ethiopia would not border Tanganyika. It would border Witu/British East Africa. Also, I doubt that Italian Somaliland would fall to Ethiopia, particularly right away. Could this mean that the Kaiser does not depend on Italy in World War I, when its support failed to materialize in OTL, instead ultimately joining the Entente.

[MrP]

Originally Posted by thesandman

Major European war in 1898 because of Ethiopian actions? Could be interesting.

Britain's in trouble if we're involved. No Boer war reforms of the Army, no experience of large scale maneuvres. Still, we won't be responsible for concentration camps, I suppose.

Germany: no revolts in Germany's African provinces (OTL 1904ish onwards)

The Spanish American War of 1898? Where's this going to lead?

Signal improvements in Italian military training, &c?

[LordKalvan]

The defeat at Adowa was in equal measure the result of military incompetence (Baratieri was a very poor commander), back-seat driving (Crispi, the Italian Prime Minister needed a victory to shore up his government) and sheer optimism (the total military forces in Erythrea were just 35,000 men, including the local askari). In addition, logistics were badly handled, and the ammunition level was dangerously low. The campaign was predicated on the assumption that the local governors would not have supported the central power in Ethiopia. Once this did not happen, the campaign was as good as lost. However, Crispi insisted to get "results" and forced Baratieri to launch an invasion with an army of 17,000 men (out of which 7,000 askari). This was confronted by the ethipian army of 120,000, and the result is not so unespected, considering that Baratieri succeeded in dividing his meagre forces, and was defeated in details.

It was a defeat (and all colonial powers had reverses in their operations), but it was not necessarily to be a disaster. However, the political opposition in Italy took the opportunity to topple Crispi, and the results of the defeat were magnified.

It was absolutely impossible to think that Menelik could have gone forward and conquered Erythrea. The sheer logistics of feeding an army of 100,000 men, added to the uncertain loyalty of the regional troops and the low level of ammunitions, convinced menelik not even to try this adventure. After Adowa, the Ethiopians retreated and the war practically ended.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I don't see it happening. First of all, it was beyond Abyssinia's capabilities to conquer the Italian possessions, and even if it were, Britain and France would make sure it didn't happen. Italian troubles were one of the reasons the British decided to destroy the Mahdists.

If Ethiopia had joined the Central Powers, that would be a different matter, but once again, the CP would have to win, otherwise Ethiopia is toast.