Hamlet on the Hudson: Mario Cuomo in 1992

[hcallega]

On the advice of my colleague Historico, I have decided to resurrect my Presidential Atlas Timeline. The first update will come along shortly and hopefully it will be enjoyed!

[hcallega]

To Run Or Not to Run, That is the Question

Ever since 1984, Mario Cuomo had been the superstar of the Democratic Party. His speech at the 1984 National Convention had been a rare bright spot in a generally abysmal year. An articulate, charismatic, and pragmatic liberal, Cuomo had been coveted by party leaders to run for President in 1988. However the New York Governor had not taken the jump, stating a need to focus on state political issues. But after that depressing election, one where defeat had been snatched from the jaws of victory, some within the party doubted that yet another northern liberal could take back the White House.

Matters were made worse by the fact that the fall of 1991 was a high point of President George Bush’s popularity. The Coalition victory in the Persian Gulf had been a definitive moment for a President who had cast himself as a foreign policy leader. This, compounded with the fall of the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe cast Bush as the natural successor to Ronald Reagan. The popularity of the incumbent led to many Democrats declining to run for the White House in 1992. Whether it was Tennessee Senator Al Gore or House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, the party was sorely lacking strong candidates to face off against Bush in November.

While there were few high profile candidates who jumped into the race for President in 1992, there were several “New Democrats”. Senators Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts were both fiscal conservatives who campaigned largely on issues of economic growth and a balanced budget. Former California Jerry Brown launched into a fiery populist tirade as an opponent of NAFTA, the deficit, and high taxes. The only major voice on the left to declare early on was Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, a prairie populist in the mold of William Jennings Bryan. Then there was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. Clinton, a charismatic centrist from a Democratic-leaning Southern state, was quite popular among many party insiders. They saw his candidacy as a potential phoenix for the party. He couldn’t simply be branded as a “New England Liberal” or “Ivy League Elitist”. He had come from poverty to attain great personal success, and had paid his dues in the 1972 and 1976 elections, working hard for the ticket.

Clinton was not without his problems of course. His personal life was filled with question marks. Whether it was his alleged draft-dodging during Vietnam or drug use in college, many close to the candidate feared the possibility of public outcry. Of course then there was his womanizing. Needless to say, while Clinton was seen as the party’s next great leader to some, he was seen as a potential land mine to others.

It was under this cloud that Cuomo was forced to decide his fate, and the fate of the party, in the fall of 1991. It would be a late start certainly, but with his establishment support and name recognition it would not be crippling. But the candidate was still undecided. It would take a last minute meeting with the Governor’s brain trust to make the final call. His son, Andrew, and his closest aides (Andrew Zambelli and Michael Del Giudice) both favored a run, while John Marino and Joe Perroco (close friends of the Governor) opposed it. But it was his son’s words that persuaded him. After all, Cuomo was Italian and family always came first.

[RogueBeaver]

Subscribed. I've never seen a Cuomo TL before. Were I a Bush strategist, I'd reuse the '88 playbook, sans Willie Horton. After all, Cuomo is an ideological carbon copy of Dukakis.

[Historico]

Ah here we go, lol, i never heard back from you so, i figured that you wern't down for remaking it. There's been a lot of good discussion on how a Cuomo presidency would look back going back years on this board. And you of course can throw some questions to us while your writing it as well. Im excited to see where this goes and if our going to take this TL all the way up till 2012(20 years of butterfly effects is a nice endpoint)...Keep it comming

Btw, RB, remember that the GOP doesn't have Attwater during this election, so the drive to go negative won't be a strong without his influence. But who knows how differently the election will shape out(What are the best books on the '92 election...Isn't there one that they used to base Primary Colors off of?)

Oh, I almost forgot, HC...If you want to find more pictures of the candidates during 1992, set ur self up an free account with Corbis images and you should be able to find what you need.

[Noravea]

You are a God in my eyes! Making an Italian-American POTUS is excellent. And a New Yorker.

[Historico]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

Subscribed. I've never seen a Cuomo TL before. Were I a Bush strategist, I'd reuse the '88 playbook, sans Willie Horton. After all, Cuomo is an ideological carbon copy of Dukakis.

Just as long as the pic/press conference...doesn't leak out I think the Cuomo campaign will be a'ok.

[hcallega]

Primary Season

"For the past eleven years, the Republican Party has held control over Washington D.C., and over those past twelve years we have deficits, poverty, and innequality increase across this whole nation. We have seen the streets of our great cities plagued with crime, while the federal governments response has been to cut funds to our cities. We have seen the deficit soar, simply to pay off tax breaks for the wealthy and priveldeged. We have seen the middle class abandoned, while big corporations are embraced. Quite frankly, we have seen too much. But no longer. Today we start anew. Today I declare my candidacy for President of the United States. As President I will fight to end poverty in this great nation, to cut the deficit, and to restore pride in all corners of our country. Today, with your help, we can change the course of this great nation."
-New York Governor Mario Cuomo, December 11th, 1991

And with that the entire landscape for the 1992 presidential election changed completely. All of a sudden a party that had lacked any clear frontrunner had one, and the likelihood an easy reelection campaign for President Bush went down the drain. But no one in the Cuomo camp was taking victory for granted. After all, 1988 had proved that public opinion could be swayed, in some cases with just one TV ad. They also knew that their candidate was to the left of most Americans, even most of the candidates in the Democratic field. To win, Cuomo would have to frame the election as a time for change, and a time for victory.

Learning from the mistakes of Ted Kennedy's Presidential Campaign in 1980, Cuomo came out early with a clear platform and set of ideas. Focusing on health care, education, and poverty, Cuomo carved out a spot as the candidate of the left. He proposed a fairly detailed health care plan which included a government funded public option, and proposed educational reform that would focus funds on struggling districts. Cuomo rarely mentioned social issues, knowing that any focus on his stance on the death penalty or gun control could doom him in Middle America.

The first primary contest was the Iowa Caucuses on February 10th. Cuomo, like most of the other candidates, didn't really contest it. Iowa Senator Tom Harkin was popular enough in the state already, and would win 69% of the vote. Cuomo would finish in second place with 8%. But for most candidates the focus had never been on Iowa, it had been on New Hampshire.

The Granite State was especially important to the 1992 Democratic Field. With two popular northeastern candidates, the polls showed a practical dead heat. While Cuomo led nationally by a fairly sizable margin, the voters in New Hampshire weren't convinced. They were receptive to Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas's message of a balanced budget and economic growth, and weren't as passionate about ending poverty as the New York Governor. However Tsongas lacked Cuomo's financial edge, and when the polls began to show a dead-heat, Cuomo went on the war path. Criss-crossing the state on a rented campaign buss, Cuomo spoke to crowd after crowd about the need for "an economic policy that helps every American, especially the Middle Class." He claimed that Tsongas's focus on a balanced budget would mean "cuts to education, defense, and entitlement spending" along with "tax increases on all Americans." Instead, Cuomo proposed "realing back the rampant corporate kick-backs" of the Reagan and Bush years. Cuomo would also launch a massive ad-blitz that portrayed him as the sort of compassionate candidate that could relate to the average American voter. After all, he "grew up on the floor above my parents grocery store" and "appreciated the values of hard work and persistence."

Prior to voting day, a televised debate was held with all of the major candidates. While Clinton, Brown, and Kerrey all impressed, the major focus was on Cuomo and Tsongas. The two "Mediterranean Men" clased over everything from health care to fiscal policy. Cuomo took the traditional Democratic line, while chatising Tsongas for "throwing out the baby with the bathwater". This was in response to Tsongas's attacks on the party's left for the string of recent defeats. Tsongas would respond by claiming "I'm not abandoning my party, or it's values. What I'm saying is that the American people do not want more government. They want better government." Tsongas would prevail in the debate, and would stop the bleeding of votes that had occured ever since Cuomo's blitz. The final results would reflect the close nature of the race, with Cuomo narrowly winning with 27% to Tsongas's 25%. Clinton would finish in third place with 18% of the vote, while the rest of the pack finished further behind. Cuomo had scored his first major win, but victory was far from certain.

[TNF]

Originally Posted by RogueBeaver

Subscribed. I've never seen a Cuomo TL before. Were I a Bush strategist, I'd reuse the '88 playbook, sans Willie Horton. After all, Cuomo is an ideological carbon copy of Dukakis.

Dukakis was a proto-DLC Democrat, though, wasn't he? Cuomo always struck me as the liberal type.

[hcallega]

Originally Posted by The New Freedom

Dukakis was a proto-DLC Democrat, though, wasn't he? Cuomo always struck me as the liberal type.

He wasn't a DLC Democrat as much as a pragmatic governor. He worked to cut spending and was supportive of pro-growth policies over the welfare state. The big problem was that he was a big social liberal, so he got pounded by Bush. As far as Cuomo, yes he was probably to the Duke's left, but not so much. Pretty ideologically simmilar to Obama or Hillary Clinton.

[Historico]

Originally Posted by hcallega

He wasn't a DLC Democrat as much as a pragmatic governor. He worked to cut spending and was supportive of pro-growth policies over the welfare state. The big problem was that he was a big social liberal, so he got pounded by Bush. As far as Cuomo, yes he was probably to the Duke's left, but not so much. Pretty ideologically simmilar to Obama or Hillary Clinton.

I agree, I think his working with a largely Republican Legislature forced him to be more pragmatic, when it came to budgeting concerns and not being able to push through innovative social welfare programs. If you want a good Catholic Governship to look at...Bob Case sr. did a really awesome job in the state when it came to desiging a new Activist Government. I need to try to find some sources on Mario, to give more input.

[historybuff]

So far, so good. Did Cuomo ever consider running in OTL at all?

[Han]

Originally Posted by historybuff

So far, so good. Did Cuomo ever consider running in OTL at all?

I'm sure he thought about it, though he didn't end up running because he thought Bush was too popular to be beaten in 1992. His plan probably was to wait until 1996, where, after 16 years of Republican rule, the White House would be a lock.

[Han]

And good TL so far, HC!

[Historico]

Let's see if RB much qouted RFK's Ideological Heir can make a comeback after New Hampshire(By the way has Jennifer Flowers blown up yet?)

[theReturner]

Very nice start. I can't wait to see where this ends up going.