What happens if Gavirlo Princep's gun jams up?

[King Thomas]

And he fails to assassinate Franz Ferdinand and his wife.

[Commissar]

Originally Posted by King Thomas

And he fails to assassinate Franz Ferdinand and his wife.

War is delayed a few years. When does start up it may be that the Armies that will fight it might be semi-motorized.

And if Four-Wheel-Drive is around for armored cars, then we might see an interesting war...

[IMP CAES AVG]

Originally Posted by Commissar

War is delayed a few years. When does start up it may be that the Armies that will fight it might be semi-motorized.

And if Four-Wheel-Drive is around for armored cars, then we might see an interesting war...

I would say that is dubious. Germany was willing to enter the war as a means of launching a pre-emptive strike on the Entente powers before France and Russia completed the modernization of the armies (which was due to be completed in 1917). Furthermore, by 1914 Germany and Britain had largely come to an agreement on the question of the arms buildup. The assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand came at the worst possible moment, when tensions were at their heighest. If a possible war was to be delayed for a few more years, it is dubious it would occur at all.

[Redbeard]

Agree.

With a dead Archduke the Austrians were compelled to some heavy action, which made diplomatic solutions much more difficult, if not impossible.

With no dead Archduke the situation would be much more like earlier crisis, where war after all had been avoided.

If war is avoided until 1917 the socialdemocrats in Germany are likely to win majority at the elections scheduled for that year and form government. While that will in no way mean a disarmed Germany (more like Sweden on steroids)I'm positive that the SDs would never agree to a continued naval race with GB and soon fighting the common communist enemy (within) will be on top of agendas all over Europe.

SDs are likely to win elections in more countries in these years, putting people with an internationalist thinking into govenment.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[QuoProQuid]

You could just have him decide to eat a sandwich somewhere else. The reason that Archduke Ferdinand and his wife were where they were when they were shot is because the driver had no idea where he was going. Gavrilo was a member of a Slavic independence group that had just failed to kill the Archduke with some bombs.

So Gavrilo went to a cafe in some alley to drown his sorrows in a failure sandwich when, against all odds, he sees Ferdinand ride past. Everyone knows what happens next.

All you have to do to prevent WWI for a few years is to make Gavrilo eat a sandwich somewhere else. Honestly.

[Lord Roem]

However, we have to take into account that Franz Ferdinand, while an inbred genetic cul-de-sac (like most of the Hapsburgs) was also a fairly lucid and potentially capable monarch. I think that we can safely say that Franz-Joseph is going to die round about the time that he did in OTL. If we can delay war until then, one could see considerable changes in the administration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (FF was a key supporter of the "tripartite solution" aimed at creating a third kingdom for the Slavs).

As a result, WWI may happen, but under very different circumstances and potentially, may not even happen at all. For all the talk of the inevitability of the Alliance System leading to war. It wouldn't take much for cooler heads to prevail in a crisis; a more powerful Chancellor in Germany willing to support the Reichstag rather than the Kaiser, a more pacifistic Liberal Party, another revolution in Russia, all of these could quite easily occur before another war potentially broke out.

[shillinger]

Originally Posted by King Thomas

And he fails to assassinate Franz Ferdinand and his wife.

That would make it the 3rd unsuccessfull assasination attempt of the day.

Perhaps killed later during the day?

[The Vulture]

I doubt Princip or his compatriots in the Black Hand would give up that easily. As has been previously noted, Popovic and Grabež still hadn't been caught (I'm not sure if Mehmedbašić was stil at large) and might very well make another attempt with their pistols and the grenades they were found to possess.

[W.W.A.F.T.]

alright, so maybe a better way to put this question would be: what if Princep's assassination attepmt fails in a rather spectacular fasion, so that his targets are alive and unharmed but it becomes abundandly clear that he was trying to kill them?

[David S Poepoe]

If Princep's guns jammed it would look really bad for Serbian Intelligence and the Black Hand. Practically every assassin they equipped for the hit on Franz-Ferdinand was comically apprehended by Austrians authorities.

[Atreus]

Originally Posted by shillinger

That would make it the 3rd unsuccessfull assasination attempt of the day.

Perhaps killed later during the day?

I would say no, given that all the other conspirators had already either failed, or failed to act. Princep got incredibly lucky, as he literally ran into the Archduke while said archduke was lost. If ferdinand survives Princep's attack, then he leaves Sarajevo alive, and in sole posession of the title "luckiest man in the world".

that said, if the austrians put two and two together with regards to the legion of would-be assassins, the effects may be similar to if he had actually been shot.

Another interesting thought would be if Ferdinand survives fairly unscathed, but sofia is shot and killed. How does A-H respond?

[ljofa]

Didn't one of the would-be assassins have a bomb in which to take out the motorcade?

[yourworstnightmare]

Originally Posted by King Thomas

And he fails to assassinate Franz Ferdinand and his wife.

The war will start later.

[Harlinden]

Now for a WI after the assassination. Francis Joseph dies at the news. Karl became emperor 2 years before OTL. Is he partisan of war. what are is relations with William II and Nicolas?

[mcdnab]

No assasination. Delayed war or no war, delayed Russian Revolution, no widespread collapse of public confidence in the monarchical system of government in Central and Eastern Europe.

[wiking]

If anything, with Franz Ferdinand becoming the Emperor of Austria-Hungary this will lead to conflict, potentially civil war when he starts reforming the empire and the conservative Austrians and Hungarian nobility fight back. The man's goal was to break the feudal stranglehold that the Hungarian nobility had on the country, which, as you can imagine, will lead to trouble down the road. That is the reason when everyone (even the Habsburgs) were relieved when he was killed.

[Aranfan]

Originally Posted by wiking

If anything, with Franz Ferdinand becoming the Emperor of Austria-Hungary this will lead to conflict, potentially civil war when he starts reforming the empire and the conservative Austrians and Hungarian nobility fight back. The man's goal was to break the feudal stranglehold that the Hungarian nobility had on the country, which, as you can imagine, will lead to trouble down the road. That is the reason when everyone (even the Habsburgs) were relieved when he was killed.

He wanted to turn A-H into a Federal Nation based off of the US.