Could there be a republic in Siberia?

Max, I'll see what I can do here. The ideal option is to find the lists you need in English rather than transliterate the names and translate the titles. Well, try to do my best... You've got a really fascinating TL here, so I will be only glad to help you.

1617-32: Novorussian War of Independence. When Kiev-Chernigov supports them, Vladimir has to accept that they leave. The republic of Novorussiya is founded. Capital becomes Yeniseisk.
(Population at this time: Vladimir 20 million, Kiev-Chernigov 22 million, Novorossiya 7.5 million)

Click to expand...

Wait! Don't you think you are a little bit runnuing before time? Revolutions, like fruits, need time to get ripe. What do you have by 1617? Less than 10 milion (and it's quite an optimistic growth rate even given the earlier Russian colonisation because of extensive farming and much lesser productivity of Siberian/Novorussian soil). OK, let it be even 10 million (Chinese immigration +native tribes) scattered thin over vast stretches of those really endless lands. Reckon, all this time these poor colonist will fight for their very survival and will not be able to think of spiritual matters like social philosophy thus sweating their bread out of Novorussian soil. Well schools in Yenisseysk (BTW, city with such name came into existence almost at the same time as Krasnoyarsk ), in Tobolsk, maybe, Tomsk, pro-Chinese trends in culture etc. It's all good, but it seems to me that you've given too strong an impulse to events in Novorossia. What could be pre-conditions for such a revolution? Ban of manufacturing home goods in benefit of goods manufactured in Vladimir? Taxing tea and Tea-Party of Tobolsk? And if even so? With no industrial base, with no gunpowder and proper ironworks, with mainly farming communities and few fortresses guarded by regular troops and Cossacks, how could the Novorussians withstand the war against regular army? It's not even War of Independence in the USA, 'cos the colonists here wold have fewer industrial and people resources, and Kiev-Chernigov may only support them morally or will they also be forced into war? So, at this stage your War will simply become a lasting guerrilla war with small bands striking here and there untill finally suppressed. You could not form the whole army of trappers and rangers, you will simply be unable to collect so many Nattie Bumpos to fight regulars.
I vote for Novorussian revolution with both my hands but strongly recommend that you move it to circa 1790-1810. You may even use some kind of Decembrists for that purpose who would be glad to reform Novorossia according to their idealistic plans.

Oh, I don't think you have to wait till 1790, not with the annoyance Novorossyans have had with Vladimir these many years and the ample precedent for Russian republics in this timeline. That said, the population numbers quoted really are a bit startling. Maybe push it back a century for those numbers? Or even half of one?

At any rate, the question of where to put the borders is an interesting one. It isn't like the American model. Any Siberian state will have its strength incredibly spread out, and it is much easier to hold the western end from a semi-developed area like Russia-proper than from pretty much anywhere in Siberia. Seems to me the border is likely to have more to do with agreements between Kiev and Vladimir, than with anything the Novorossyans can do in the war.

The population growth is a bit high, but I can certainly see why Novorussia would declare independence- I don't think it's too far out there.

@Admiral Matt: The Novorossiyan republic is organized around the cities. Again, read the [post=722246]story for this update[/post].

OK, some clarifications whether the Novorussians could start, and more important, win the war:

Technology of Novorossiya:
- No gunpowder? Can't see that. The technology has filtered since long to Russia. We have the year 1620, not 1220. Even if it hadn't, the Novorussians would've learned it probably from the Hong empire.
- No ironworks? Better ask Hendryk how sophisticated Chinese furnaces and such were even in the 13th century, if you don't believe me. And which Russians are closest to China? Right.

Population:
- The population of Siberia started to grow earlier than IOTL. More than one century earlier.
- The USA had 4 million people even some years AFTER their revolution. So it's not too crazy to think the Novorussians could win, esp. if Kiev-Chernigov helps them a bit. Read the numbers: Together, they're even in the majority. With a strong enemy in the South (and the Swedes, the Poles and the Teutonic Order in the west), the Czar can't use his full power against Novorossiya.
- American farmers had definitely more kids than European ones, since they hadn't to fear that their land would've to be divided - the younger sons simply would go west where there was still land left. Four to six surviving kids per family isn't that utopic - since the population is thinly spread, even diseases can't cause that much havoc. And besides, WTH are you supposed to do in Siberia if you're bored? You don't even need farming as long as there is game in the woods and fish in the rivers.
- Although most of Siberia is either Taiga or half-desert, there's a strip in between wide enough to support some population, and even with some good soil (not at the level of Ukraine, but still). I've checked it. 10 million people on 2.5 million sq km (20% of Siberia) isn't really a high population density, not even for medieval times.
So if you add the higher birth rate (some early settlers might even have more than one wife [i.e. the widows of their killed enemies], since noone could control them, so there might be even more kids), the conquered Siberian natives, a longer start time, and a good immigration, the numbers might work.

Warfare:
- The Novorussians can make war on their territory against an army that might not even know the terrain. We're talking about a time where mapping wasn't as developed as today. And even if it was, Siberia's damn big. Why waste money for lots of cartographers if you don't expect that you may have to make a war there?
- Yes, the Novorussians will make a kind of guerilla war. If the czarist troops burn one village, they get some more fighters. They've got all the prerequisitions for that.
- It's kind of ironic: Russia (Vladimir) will have to fight an enemy who can rely on general winter (even colder in Siberia) and the ability to retreat sheer endlessly. We all know how that usually turns out.

Republic Novorossiya:
- After Vladimir-Suzdal took Novgorod, many people from there went to Novorossiya, where the Czar had less control. If they wanted to make a republic, they'd certainly know what they do.
- Besides, many Russian cities had vyetjes. IOTL they ended in 1510, but TTL Russia had no Mongol oppression, so the Czars couldn't learn from the khans how to do despotism (yes, IMO the Mongols have to be blamed for that, and yes, I think the Mongols did more harm than good to Russia). So ITTL, the Czars of the 17th century have more power than the grand Princes from the 13th century, but much less than OTL, and probably even less than their contemporary counterparts in W Europe. There might be even some internal division about the war (I'd have to work that out).
- TTL Russia isn't cut off from the west, also due to the Mongols being absent. The old texts by Plato and Roman authors would've filtered into Russia as well. The Russians might get them even earlier, because many Constantinopolitans went to Kiev instead of Italy and such. At that time, the princes had even less power, and without a Mongol oppression in the past...
- I had mentioned some events in the past (Czar doesn't care if Novorussian cities are attacked by steppe people, raises taxes for war against Poland) that p'ed off the people. As Rhett Butler said, all wars are fought for money in the first place.

All in all, that should suffice. Maybe I'm a bit too optimistic... but I think it could work. So, why not.

Max, you asked the dynastic lists of Russian knyazes, so here we go:
The first can give it city by city, the other one is more genera and includes info you may find useful not ony in Russian matters:
http://www.hostkingdom.net/russia.html
http://www.hostkingdom.net/genindex.html
Concerning Novorussia.
OK, to understand why War of Independence in Novorussia is impossible in eary 17th century, one should understand the specific features of Russian coonisation of Siberia that differed greatly from that of America. In this ATL, I admit, it would differ greatly from our OT as well, but I ask myself again, wil these differences be sufficient to result in events you suggest?
To resolve this question, I offer you to consider the folowing issues of Russian colonisation of OTL Siberia and then compare them to what you suggest and make some adjustments if you like:
- miitary infitration by small Cossack troops: from Yermak to Khabarov and Dezhnev;
- buiding small forts and trade factories that later became towns, and towns they were until ate 18th centuries. That is the fate of all Siberian cities - extremely low growth rate until that time. They remained ony forposts, small fortresses with itte population and rudimentary industria base;
- abcence of any policy stimulating colonisation of Siberia;
- The 95% of Russian Siberian population are peasants and hunters who don't care much of taxing policy because there's no regular taxing poicy in Siberia. If oppressed too much, they of course, will revolt but that would always be a local revolt ill-organised and quickly suppressed. To make a nation-wide Revolution, you will need strong local elite - al those Novorussian Franklins, Jefferssons and Washingtons, Hamiltons and Adamses... Will they have arrived and got strength by 1617? Let me doubt that. I aways will give you the parallels with the American Revolution because the cases may strikingly be similar.
The American Fathers-Founders were braught up on great phiosophy of 18th century, Diderot, Russeau, Voltaire, Kant etc. You suggest to substitute them by Confucius and his teachings of a "great ruler" and a "noble man"?
What else unites American and Novorussian cases? There is one thing you forgot mentioning - that is that in both cases these ands gave refuge to people who denied official religion. In case of Novorussia it woud be different kinds of Old Believers (all those Novorussian Amish people, Dukhobors, khlysts-eunuches etc who really believed that the Earth was in the hands of the Prince of Darkness, and the metropoitans of Russia who oppressed them were the servants of Satan). Doesn't it look much like some Protestan churches blaming the Pope of the same?
So, my advice: don't put all stakes on money (that's the case where they might matter little, unless you impose a Protestant ethics on Novorussians - yes, I know that Rhet was a Catholic) and place all hope on Religious opression. That would be a much stronger argument.
So, as I've shown above, the OTL Siberia until the beginning of 19th century amost had no industrial base. So what gunpowder? Yes, Novorussians know its technoogy but they have no means to produce it in industria quantities. Ironworks... I know prefecty well that Chinese technologies of that time were far more advanced, and Europe in OTL could approach Chinese quaity and quantity of steel produced ony in early 18th century with the start of Industrial Revoution. Here, Chinese may help. OTL China of that period was aready a stagnating culture isolated and disinterested in the surrounding world. Here, without Mongols, it might be more expansionist and aggressive. That means that Siberian colonisation might see confrontation of two forces- Russian and Chinese, and who will win and impose its cuture over those lands? Not Russian one, I think.
And what position would the Orthodox Church take towards those "yellow-skinned narrow-eyed hantsi-aliens"? Negative, I think.

Hrm... You might want to add overt Chinese assistance to the Novorossiyan cause. That would solve pretty much all the problems we have here. Though it's a pretty good question whether they could be bothered to intervene substantially in such an insignificant area.

Edit: [post=722244]more about the Novorossiyan War of Independence[/post]

@Admiral Matt: Assistance in other ways yes, but not in sending an army. It's way too far away, and besides, China has other problems. There are still Mongols, Jurchen and other independent people between Russia and China around.

@Stalker: Thank you very much for the links! Now I can start to work on the royal lists for the Russian states too.

Now back to Novorossiya. Let me list some reasons why it could work out:
- IOTL, the Mongol empire removed all the barriers for inner-Eurasian trade. For the first time in history, Chinese goods could be traded all the way. When the Muslims later stood in the way, the Europeans started looking for other ways to East Asia - the Portuguese going around Africa, the Spanish going to the west. This never happened here, so the trade volume with China stayed very small. So when Russia slowly expands into Siberia, and find the way to China, they're the first Europeans to do so. This means: They can start a very profitable trade, being the link between China and Western Europe. So merchants will go to Siberia and even further, and other people will follow them simply because they know they can become rich, if they start a tavern or a workshop, selling goods for higher prices to the merchants and their employees than they could get in Old Russia.
- Confucianism doesn't serve as an ideology here. In fact, the rebels' ideas are more based on the old democratic Russian traditions, like the Vyetje. However, Confucianism gives them the idea that an empire can be governed better than in the comparably unsophisticated way the Czar does. The Russians in Vladimir may not know better, but those merchants who saw China will be less impressed by the absolutist Czar.
- Yes, I forgot mentioning religious movements. They'll be there, but I'd have to work them out since developments will take very different patterns.
- The farmers and hunters of Novorossiya may not be able to organize themselves against the Czar, but if the merchants in the cities help them to rally, they can. As I said, for the merchants it's also about money, and someone being a bit brighter (who maybe even read the one or other thing about organization, administration and strategy in Chinese books) could get the idea (in fact, he'll have to) to use a bit of the merchants' money to pay the farmers to fight for them - to gain even more money after the war, when they don't have to pay taxes to Vladimir anymore.
- IOTL Russia was way behind western Europe, maybe even centuries, but I tend to blame the Mongols for that too. Novgorod and other Russian cities had a higher literacy and greater buildings than Western Europe before the Mongols came. So we're talking about a completely different Russia here.
- Maybe I should start the settlement a bit earlier than 1480. Novgorod had control over the lands up to the Urals earlier, so exploration at least could start earlier.