French Revolution Fails

Faeelin

Banned
How? Plenty of ways, but which ones?

Heck, I think we could argue that the situation in 1805, with a despotic emperor ruling France, was a sign the revolution failed.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I guess it must mean Louis XVI remaining in power and doing so without significant foreign help. The PoD could a be a few battalions of loyal troops in the right place at the right time in summer of 1789.

We basically have the old antagonies going on.

UK is humiliated by her recent loss of the North American colonies, and probably looks for revenge. Economy and industry is basically OK, but the war debt is a burden. Foreign is policy is about watching everything France does and little else.

France has large part of the honour for US independence, but has paid for it with a very strained economy, in reality prohibiting any major adventures in near future.

Prussia has a lot of glory from the recently departed Frederick the Great, but everything in Prussia gathers dust, incl. the Army, which hasn’t changed anything since the great battles of the Seven-Years War. Prussia is a poor state using all its funds to keep up a big Army, and her neighbours increasingly smell an easy victim.

The Holy Roman Empire is in some areas in Germany more a formality than a reality, but the Emperor in Wienna is the most powerful man in Europe with the old enemies Prussia and France weakened. In Germany the loose character of the Empire is more a factor of cohesion than a concern and nothing can or will stop the Empire from gradually pushing back the Ottomans on the Balkans.

Russia is a big and growing factor in European politics. In Caucasus she has a free hand against the Ottomans, but to the west, Sweden, Prussia, Poland and HRE is in the way. The 1788-90 war between Russia and Sweden is still lost by Sweden but also with no territories lost (we could have a PoD here, as Sweden was much saved by the complicated situation in Europe in 1790).

Poland had lost some of her territories in 1772 to Russia, Prussia and Austria, but by 1790’s she underwent remarkable reforms, incl. a capable standing army of 100.000 men. In OTL this had Prussia and Russia invade Poland in 1793, but in this TL HRE is not engaged in the French revolutionary war and may have some wishes too, if not at first, then in the following Polish rebellion in 1795. Anything could happen but I would guess for the Habsburgs wanting to get back what they lost to Prussia in the Seven-Years War (Silesia) and seeing Poland as a convenient Catholic counterbalance against the protestant Prussia and Ortodorx Russia. In this TL the Polish are not inspired by the French revolution and so do not repulse the conservative Habsburgs. So we have HRE and Poland against Prussia and Russia, but soon with Sweden-Finland joining the HRE and Poland and Denmark-Norway Russia and Prussia. In the war now following the Prussians and Russians have serious trouble in coordinating their actions, and are defeated in detail by the Habsburgs and Poles having the central position.

But the Swedes have increasing difficulties in handling the Russians and Danes-Norwegians pressing from all sides, and neither the Poles nor the Habsburgs can be of much help. Finland is soon occupied by an Russian army and after the Swedish fleet is defeated by a combined Danish-Norwegian/Russian navy Southern Sweden is also invaded.

France really don’t know who she hates most and anyway has an empty war chest, so she remains neutral, which again leaves UK with no great motivation to enter the war, and nobody really dare ask the Parliament to raise taxes.

After the defeat of the Prussian and Russian main armies in Poland a peace conference is called with all great powers taking part incl. UK and France. Russia is too big to push around and with no enemy troops on her territory, but Prussia and Sweden are in serious difficulties with most of their territory under enemy control. Prussia must give Silesia to Austria and East Prussia to Poland. The Prussian King keeps his title but is in reality only the secondary Kurfürst his forefarthes were a few generations back.

The real problem of the conference is Sweden as Denmark-Norway basically demands back everything lost to Sweden since early 17th century and Russia really sees no reason to leave Finland. Poland and HRE really don’t care about the Swedes, thay are happy about the loot they have secured for themselves, but UK is very concerned about one power again controlling the Baltic approaches, especially if that power is Russian backed. The British seriously consider leaving the conference and entering a renewed war on Habsburg/Polish side, but the Admiralty is very concerned about trying to enter the Baltic with a 50+ SOL Danish-Norwegian/Russian fleet operating in the Oeresund and under the guns of Elsinore and Helsingborg. At the same time the French King very clearly states that France always will be on the side of UK’s enemies. The final drop is the Habsburgs and Poles politely claiming that they are not really interested in taking up war again to defend British interests in the Baltic.

So a compromise is reached where Russia gets Finland and Denmark-Norway Scania, Halland, Blekinge (all southern Sweden) and Jämtland (bordering to Norway), but Denmark-Norway must declare Oeresund international territory open to shipping and with no toll.

In the next years two blocks consolidate on the continent. A central being the HRE and a number of vassal states (South German states, Poland, Naples etc) and the other of Russia, France, Spain and Denmark-Norway. Prussia and Sweden are formally neutral, but in reality are Russian vassals. Netherlands are neutral, and really try to keep a low profile, as she is equally vulnerable to any of the alliances. The British have practically no conflicting interests with the first alliance, but a lot with the second, so they generally support the HRE, although they will not be included in any formal alliances. In all capitals the growing tension is the subject of debate among the enlightened classes sipping coffee and tea in the saloons. But meanwhile the growing class of hardworking citizens paying a lot of taxes and having few rights are starting to grumble about things that really ought to be different...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Very interesting Steffen, but it seems rather harsh on Sweden. Peace in this period don't usually result in such sweeping victories, and a return to a territorial situation of decades past, let alone centuries, usually takes several wars, several victories and several treaties. Heck, even in subduing the Khanate of the Crimea it took about 15 years to finalise the Russian position. Sweden is a much tougher nut

Grey Wolf
 

Redbeard

Banned
Grey Wolf said:
Very interesting Steffen, but it seems rather harsh on Sweden. Peace in this period don't usually result in such sweeping victories, and a return to a territorial situation of decades past, let alone centuries, usually takes several wars, several victories and several treaties. Heck, even in subduing the Khanate of the Crimea it took about 15 years to finalise the Russian position. Sweden is a much tougher nut

Grey Wolf
We're going to meet Sweden in a win-or-quit soccer game soon, I have to be harsh ;)

But back to the TL I don't think I'm too harsh on the Swedes, they still have all the historical Swedish areas + Swedish Pomerania, as no one knew who should have them. Next this also is the second war between Sweden and Russian in a few years (first 1788-90), and the Russians might be motivated for putting an end to this mess, and will have no difficulties in having the Danes or Norwegians agree on that. I'm not sure what the Scanians will say though.

I think the weakest point of the TL is UK staying neutral and not in time acting on the Russian-Danish threat to their Baltic access. In OTL 1801 they acted very swiftly towards the armed neutrality alliance between Russia, Sweden and Denmark-Norway, but in this scenario they are up against fully mobilised enemies, and not a hastily prepared line of blockships. The only sensible strategy of the Russian-Danish alliance will be to concentrate their combined fleets in Oeresund while the Russian Army deals with Finland. The Swedish fleet is too weak to take up battle on it's own and can't unite with any British fleet. Anyway if UK enters the war France also will, and that really makes it all to complicated...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
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