Franco-German War 1905

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
From another board which I am banned from, lol - it seemed an interesting post and I was wondering what people here thought. I post both the link and the text, because there are some horrible pop ups in play there !

http://pub165.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm18.showMessage?topicID=3609.topic

A pre WW1 Thought…
Posted By: miketr Registered User
Posts: 1506
Posted At: (1/8/04 1:58 pm)

I have been reading the following book “The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War, by David G Herrmann” and it got me thinking again on something I wounder about from time to time. What if the Germans decide to start WW1 sooner? What if in the wake of the Russian Nippon War Germany wants to deal with France and try to prevent the growing UK-French alliance with force of arms? The German Government during the Morocco Crisis threatened war a great deal but had no real plans to do just that. What if the Germans goal was to push France till either it would have no choice but to declare war or failing that Germany declares war themselves?

A couple of points to consider.

1) As in 1914 the official German war plan for the west is the Schlieffen Plan; however, its creator is still around. Also the 1905 version is different in a number of ways than the 1914 version.
A) The goal of the 1905 is the destruction of the French army in the field and the turning movement is much shallower. Its to go just far west enough to get behind the French army and then turn hard South and East to roll up the French Army.
B) The invasion of Belgium of course is there but the Germans are to limit themselves to moving largely south of the Meuse.
C) The Germans in 1905 were to commit 26 Corps and 20 Reserve Divisions to the attack all in the front lines. This is the bulk of the German army, as Germany did not feel Russia would be in any shape to do anything with having to deal with its internal problems. Also the German Reserve units were to be put into the line. Lastly Germany could expect Italian and Hapsburg aid against France. Not sure how much aid from the Hapsburgs but I would not be surprised if they didn’t send something west.
D) The French 1905 war plan was plan XV and it was defensive in nature unlike plan XVII. However the French Army is to concentrate between Verdun and the Swiss boarder. With only 4 divisions of Cavalry north of Verdun and even then they are to be tight on the boarder. The French expect the Germans to come right at them in line of Nancy-Toul.

2) As noted above I really doubt that Russia would get involved in any way in this war to start with. It has far to many internal problems. They have stripped their western military districts of their best troops and equipment and sent it all east.
3) The Anglo-French Entente is very new so I doubt the British were in any war ready or had plans for to send troops to France at this time.
4) The French army would have to stand alone against the first attack of the nearly combined strength of the central powers. The French army in 1905 has the famous French 75 in production but its deployment is not wide spread. Also in all other ways the French artillery is critically weaker than the Germans. The Germans have a 50% edge in total field batteries and the French have next to no medium and heavy guns, IE 105mm and 150mm guns. Also the French plan calls for 21 Corps as noted above to face the Germans with the French reserve divisions to NOT be used in the front line at all.

So as I see it the French are facing the wrong way, with 33% less troops than the Germans and this is Germany without any aid from its allies. Also the Germans look to hold the edge in artillery.

Does anyone think the French could stop the German attack? What type of terms would the Germans look for if they did win a quick war?

Michael

-------
Reposted here by Grey Wolf
 
i am bumping this since i have a thread about germany and its interesting and the general concept is plausible i think
 
You have no right to bump anyone's post czarist, especially grey wolf's post. So stop being a reactionary, inciter, and just post, alright?
 
Grey Wolf said:
From another board which I am banned from, lol - it seemed an interesting post and I was wondering what people here thought. I post both the link and the text, because there are some horrible pop ups in play there !

http://pub165.ezboard.com/fwarships1discussionboardsfrm18.showMessage?topicID=3609.topic

A pre WW1 Thought…
Posted By: miketr Registered User
Posts: 1506
Posted At: (1/8/04 1:58 pm)

I have been reading the following book “The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War, by David G Herrmann†and it got me thinking again on something I wounder about from time to time. What if the Germans decide to start WW1 sooner? What if in the wake of the Russian Nippon War Germany wants to deal with France and try to prevent the growing UK-French alliance with force of arms? The German Government during the Morocco Crisis threatened war a great deal but had no real plans to do just that. What if the Germans goal was to push France till either it would have no choice but to declare war or failing that Germany declares war themselves?

A couple of points to consider.

1) As in 1914 the official German war plan for the west is the Schlieffen Plan; however, its creator is still around. Also the 1905 version is different in a number of ways than the 1914 version.
A) The goal of the 1905 is the destruction of the French army in the field and the turning movement is much shallower. Its to go just far west enough to get behind the French army and then turn hard South and East to roll up the French Army.
B) The invasion of Belgium of course is there but the Germans are to limit themselves to moving largely south of the Meuse.
C) The Germans in 1905 were to commit 26 Corps and 20 Reserve Divisions to the attack all in the front lines. This is the bulk of the German army, as Germany did not feel Russia would be in any shape to do anything with having to deal with its internal problems. Also the German Reserve units were to be put into the line. Lastly Germany could expect Italian and Hapsburg aid against France. Not sure how much aid from the Hapsburgs but I would not be surprised if they didn’t send something west.
D) The French 1905 war plan was plan XV and it was defensive in nature unlike plan XVII. However the French Army is to concentrate between Verdun and the Swiss boarder. With only 4 divisions of Cavalry north of Verdun and even then they are to be tight on the boarder. The French expect the Germans to come right at them in line of Nancy-Toul.

2) As noted above I really doubt that Russia would get involved in any way in this war to start with. It has far to many internal problems. They have stripped their western military districts of their best troops and equipment and sent it all east.
3) The Anglo-French Entente is very new so I doubt the British were in any war ready or had plans for to send troops to France at this time.
4) The French army would have to stand alone against the first attack of the nearly combined strength of the central powers. The French army in 1905 has the famous French 75 in production but its deployment is not wide spread. Also in all other ways the French artillery is critically weaker than the Germans. The Germans have a 50% edge in total field batteries and the French have next to no medium and heavy guns, IE 105mm and 150mm guns. Also the French plan calls for 21 Corps as noted above to face the Germans with the French reserve divisions to NOT be used in the front line at all.

So as I see it the French are facing the wrong way, with 33% less troops than the Germans and this is Germany without any aid from its allies. Also the Germans look to hold the edge in artillery.

Does anyone think the French could stop the German attack? What type of terms would the Germans look for if they did win a quick war?

Michael

-------
Reposted here by Grey Wolf

Even so, the Franco - German border is rather narrow, which would not favor broad advances. Isn't this the reason why von Schlieffen planned to invade Belgium (and Holland, which was later amended)?
 
unsunghero said:
Even so, the Franco - German border is rather narrow, which would not favor broad advances. Isn't this the reason why von Schlieffen planned to invade Belgium (and Holland, which was later amended)?

Reread what you posted originally and grabbed half a brain. Yeah, that's me - the smart one of the family :rolleyes:
 

Redbeard

Banned
The French Army in 1905 was much weaker than in 1914. Not only due to the factors Grey Wolf mentions but because they are still 6 years short of the comprehensive and important reforms of 1911, which also meant considerable expansion of the army. Next the French army also had very little trust from the public so shortly after the Dreyfuss afair.

In general the armies of 1905 had less machineguns and quick firing artillery, which would all other things being equal will mean a relative advantage to the offensive. Railways will be as significant as in 1914, but I doubt the rather disarrayed French Army of 1905 will be able to exploit it.

All in all I will predict a French collapse faster than in 1940.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Franz Josef sends the Kiaserjaegers and other elite divisions to help the Germans in their invasion of France/Belgium, after Germany puts some pressure on Austria to honor the treaty. Maybe in this conflict, it really is over 'before the leaves fall' as everyone thought in August 1914. Maybe as a result of the (successful) war the Habsburgs are able to reorganize their army a bit better, and Germany gets even stronger? Also greater sense of pride and unity as a result of the war. In 1914 when Gavrilo Princip assassinates Franz Ferdinand Austria doesn't muck about and rather than send their ultimatum they promptly invade. Russia decides to help their slavic brothers and so declares war on Austria. Germany aids Austria by declaring war on Russia - German army full bore against badly armed, badly led Russians. Victory of Austria/Germany by early 1915. My only question is what about England? If Belgian neutrality is trampled, won't they still declare war on Germany 'on principle?'
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Quick note - this was Mike's post I 'borrowed', so certainly czarist can bump it since I borrowed it in the first place, back in January

A note about Belgium is that other countries are only going to get narky about it if Belgium cares itself. What I've read about Leopold II seemed to indicate he would have kowtowed to German demands for transit, though other people don't agree with that interpretation

Grey Wolf
 

Redbeard

Banned
unsunghero said:
Franz Josef sends the Kiaserjaegers and other elite divisions to help the Germans in their invasion of France/Belgium, after Germany puts some pressure on Austria to honor the treaty. Maybe in this conflict, it really is over 'before the leaves fall' as everyone thought in August 1914. Maybe as a result of the (successful) war the Habsburgs are able to reorganize their army a bit better, and Germany gets even stronger? Also greater sense of pride and unity as a result of the war. In 1914 when Gavrilo Princip assassinates Franz Ferdinand Austria doesn't muck about and rather than send their ultimatum they promptly invade. Russia decides to help their slavic brothers and so declares war on Austria. Germany aids Austria by declaring war on Russia - German army full bore against badly armed, badly led Russians. Victory of Austria/Germany by early 1915. My only question is what about England? If Belgian neutrality is trampled, won't they still declare war on Germany 'on principle?'

I don't at the moment recall when the guarntee on Belgian netrality was issued, but AFAIR well after 1905. Anyway UK's business wasn't Belgian neutrality or happiness for that sake, they couldn't care less, but the old game of keeping the continental powers balanced in order not to have one of them emerge as a threat to the Empire. In 1905 a Germany flanked by weakened France and Russia clearly should be seen as the potential threat, but this is still well before the full naval programme, so the threat is still more potential than real. That may reduce motivation to enter a major war, but I won't exclude that it happens.

But even if, the British probably not will have the time to build up and deploy a significant army in France before France is run over - 1940 thirtyfive years in advance.

That will by no means leave UK beaten, and without having to keep a huge army in France the British can concentrate on keeping the RN well ahead. The Germans controlling the European continent will of course have tremendous resources available, but it will take several decades before they or anyone else can catch up with a British Empire not having bled pale in the trenches. On the other hand the British, no matter what ally they get (say USA), they will have no chance of invading Europe as long as Germany isn't engaged in a Eastfront like war, and that is hard to see in this TL.

BTW I don't think the Austrians will hesitate to send troops to aid the Germans against France, as long as they're not needed on other fronts - they did have some old business to settle with the French too. The best Austrian troops were as good as any German, and the ones that gave trouble in OTL WWI when fighting fellow Slavic people are likely to perform better in France.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Maybe as a result of a successful war w/France, Germany plays it cool so far as its war aims: the rest of Lorraine, demilitarization of a 60 km zone in western France, and French Central Africa. Austria decides now is a good time to annex Bosnia and does so, while Russia is still occupied w/interior problems. After 'Dreadnought' is launched that same year (1905) I think you will still see a flurry of naval construction among the Continental (and world) powers. Germany has a legtimate need for a powerful, High - seas capable fleet; Austria, Russia, France, Spain, Turkey (and in the New World, US, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina) will all build dreadnought ships of their own. Japan will do so because still under English tutelage to some degree, and to counter the Americans' new ships. No doubt the British will surge ahead of the rest of their competition (OTL), but w/no continental powers to worry about (at least for a few years) the Germans might put even more industry into their fleet. So by 1914/1915 the HSF would still be at least as strong as in OTL - it's hard to see Wilhelm not giving in to Tirpitz since the Emperor's head has just been swelled at winning yet another war with France, and the Empire is clearly the dominant power in Europe. No doubt relations between England and Germany will be even more 'delicate' than in our time line, so arguably there could be a causus belli stumbled upon by 1914 (I doubt it would be the Serbian - sponsored regicide, though).
 
Since there is a historical precedence, I would say there's a good chance that not only will the government be forced to resign, but the III Republic might fall as well. If the right -wing manages to grab the reigns of government, we might see a restoration of the III Empire (or a Bourbon - Orleans restoration). The new Emperor would probably decide on a policy of reproachment with Germany - considering that Republican France's policy of 'revenge' has proven to be impossible. Depending upon how pliable the new government is, Germany might decide to build some bridges and absolve France of war reparations after a few years. Possibly France opens its borders more to German goods and signs an ecomonic/trade agreement - by 1920 Germany basically has its Zollverein. That's best case scenario: on the other hand, when Germany goes to war against Russia, maybe France decides for a round 3 (third time's the charm?!?) and gets pasted AGAIN.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
1905 - its far more likely you will see an Orleanist restoration, they had a vocal element in French politics and Louis Philippe III was still alive in direct succession

After 'Dreadnought' is launched that same year (1905) I think you will still see a flurry of naval construction among the Continental (and world) powers. Germany has a legtimate need for a powerful, High - seas capable fleet; Austria, Russia, France, Spain, Turkey (and in the New World, US, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina) will all build dreadnought ships of their own. Japan will do so because still under English tutelage to some degree, and to counter the Americans' new ships

Well, Spain isn't tooled up to build dreadnoughts at this period, by 1912/1914 they had done it. The Ottoman Empire, Brazil, Chile and Argentina all got their dreadnoughts build from somewhere else and were not capable of building their own, either in this period or going on in OTL. Turkey was able to salve the Yavuz/Goeben only with French help IIRC.

Grey Wolf
 
Reiteration of an old thought

France loses a Great War would create two distinct Right Wing movements--a SuperCatholic monarchist one and an ultranationalist antiCatholic (erll at least anticlerical) movements. In 1905 the former looks to be definitely stronger than in 1914-1918 Great Wars but the latter would arise as a countercurrent causing trouble.
 
If the new French regime decides to be friendly with Germany, how paranoid/worried do you think Great Britain would be without a significant ally on the Continent? Would this make any type of reproachment w/Germany less likely than OTL (proposed dismemberment of Portugese colonies, possible fleet treaty)? W/France out of the picture, I imagine Britain would provide major loans to the Russians intended for arms and army reorganization, but even so - England is pretty well screwed.
 
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