France wins Franco Prussian War.

What if France had emerged the victor in the Franco Prussian War? I don't want to get bogged down in the (un)likelihood of this happening, only the aftermath.

Let's assume that the war ends in late 1871, with a recovered French invasion force crossing the frontier into the Western German states. Prussia and Bavaria are untouched as yet. Seeing the inevitable however, the Prussians sue for peace.

The capture of Louis Napolean is less of a bargaining chip, as the French have deposed him in absentia in favour of a new republic. He will spend the rest of his days as a guest of the British crown.

Will this affect Prussia's ambition to unite the German states into one nation? How will rivals like Bavaria and Austria react? Will a newly dominant French Republic again be a thorn in Britain's side?

In the long term, will their be a First World War along the lines of that which actually happened?

Your thoughts?
 
Depends on at what point the Prussians decided to give it up. Im assuming that they call it quits after French occupation of the Rhineland. But here are a few thoughts:
1. France demands territory return of territory lost to Prussia in 1815 and reoccupies the left bank of the Rhine. After 1871 this would probably become one of the most heavily fortified/militarised areas of Europe.
2. German unification still goes ahead as southern German states are intimidated by a re-emerging France and the decline of Austrian power on which they had traditionally relied as a guarantor of their independence. However the southern states retain a greater degree of autonomy, and are not incorporated into the North German federation but merely sign-up as protectorate of Prussia – No German Empire.
3. Prussia to pay a war indemnity to France, this significantly impedes the financing of North German industrialisation and govt. spending on a creating a unified German political system.
4. France under Napoleon III is significantly emboldened, Napoleon finally lives up to his promise of restoring French prestige and of leading the nation to military success. French imperial expansion into Africa and Asia takes off earlier and with much greater vigour after 1871, The numerous Anglo-French disputes (particularly Fashoda) may well have spilled over into war during the 1871-1900 period.
5. The balance of power in Europe shifts considerably, France is once again viewed as the pre-eminent power on the continent and is diplomatically isolated. Bismarck resurrects the three emperors league with Austria and Russia. Britain remains close to Prussia and Anglo-German relations remain the same as they had been in the 18th Century with Prussia acting as Britain’s ‘continental sword’.
6. France is able to form an alliance with Italy – for aiding her in her unification.
7. Without the split between Austro-Germany and Russia European politics is not Balkanised, Austria and Russia carve up the Balkan states between them each agreeing not to support nationalism in the others sphere of influence.

Of course what would have happened after Napoleon III’s death is anyone’s guess. Had the Empire stayed in power after 1871 it would have had to have carried some measures to reduce the political power of Paris.
 
Without the emergence of a powerful united German empire Franco-British relations after 1871 would have been remarkably different. A French Empire after 1871 would be significantly more confident and expansionist than the 3rd Republic. This would have lead to inevitable clashes with Britain.

Britain would begin to see France as its main naval and colonial rival, a less industrialised and wealthy Germany would not have been able to conduct a naval arms race with Britain after 1890. This left France as the leading challenger to British naval power. There would have been no entente cordial in 1905 and instead Britain would have relied on its old alliance with Prussia/North Germany.

WW1 – if it broke out at all may have been triggered by Austro-Italian tension –perhaps over Trieste, a colonial showdown between France and ritain or perhaps Franco-German bids to gain influence over the Low Countries.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Short of a decisive victory I think the Prussians will have severe difficulties in uniting anything, and certainly not the South German Kingdoms (Bavaria and Würtemberg). The Saxons probably see a possibility to avoid Prussian domination too. If this is a undisputeable Prussian defeat the areas already included in Prussia (Hanover and Schleswig-Holstein) might start to elude too. With the French invading Germany the Danes might have entered the war too on French side (which was considered in Copenhagen OTL, but wisely they wanted to see how things developed).

The French will be exstatic, and run about shouting: "Today le boche - tomorrow the world!" That might give some troubles in the future, and I'm quite certain that GB are not a likely ally of France. Russia will be a probable French ally, and if the Russians are given time to industrialise, that alliance will be quite a factor.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Redbeard said:
Russia will be a probable French ally, and if the Russians are given time to industrialise, that alliance will be quite a factor.

I doubt a much weaker Germany would abandon Bismarcks policy of keeping Russia friendly. I think the probability of Franco-Russian relations after 1871 would rest on Austro-Russian division of the Balkans.
In this scenario if France had sought an alliance with the Tsar it would have been meant to occupy the British in Asia, rather than threaten Germany.
 

Redbeard

Banned
DoleScum said:
I doubt a much weaker Germany would abandon Bismarcks policy of keeping Russia friendly. I think the probability of Franco-Russian relations after 1871 would rest on Austro-Russian division of the Balkans.
In this scenario if France had sought an alliance with the Tsar it would have been meant to occupy the British in Asia, rather than threaten Germany.

I agree that the Franco-Russian alliance primarily will be directed towards GB. Prussia will only be a medium to minor power which will have to try to survive squeezed in between greater powers, and will think more than once before letting herself be GB's proxy on the continent. Austria will have some opportunities in this TL, first depending on whether the Hungarians can be controlled and a federal Empire can be establsihed. If so, they have a chance to develop into something which can match the Russians and be the centre of a central European alliance also keeping the French at home.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
Not to get off topic, but what would the effects be if a stalemate ensued and the French lost no territoty yet the Prussians succeded in unifing Germany?
 
As for the French winning a victory, there is a possibility...

A big part in the Prussian victory was played by the Prussian cavalry, who were among the best in Europe. Now the French had a certain asset they could have used to great effect. This was a type of early machine gun, named the mitrailleuse. Since it had a relatively high rate of fire, it could have savaged the Prussian cavalry if used in a defensive role. Unfortunately, the French used the mitrailleuse as a sort of artillery. If the French had the idea of using these as a defensive weapon, the French infantry would have had an edge over the Prussians. So, one possible opportunity at victory could have been more effective use of the mitrailleuse by the French...
 
Justin Green said:
Not to get off topic, but what would the effects be if a stalemate ensued and the French lost no territoty yet the Prussians succeded in unifing Germany?

I suspect very little would change, Germany would not get the heavy industry of the Alsace region but that’s it. The unification of Germany destabilised the balance of power which had kept Europe at peace since 1815, to have avoided the rise of the triple alliances which brought on WW1 we would have had to see a much weaker Germany
 
Agree with many points above except for the indemnity.

DoleScum said:
3. Prussia to pay a war indemnity to France, this significantly impedes the financing of North German industrialisation and govt. spending on a creating a unified German political system.

I doubt France would have a big enough defeat to demand a payment without further hostilities commencing.
 
Before the war, the optimistic French thought that they'd win the war because of their possible allies: Austria-Hungary, Italy, Denmark, plus maybe the Southern German states (or at least staying neutral), plus possible uprisings in the areas Prussia annexed in 1866. As we know, none of that happened. A-H wanted to wait until the French had won at least one battle, so did Denmark, Italy held a grudge because the French occupied Rome, and the Germans liked the French even less than the Prussians.

But let's pretend that the first battle of the war is won by the French, and A-H joins them. How are things going to happen NOW?
 
Let's say Denmark joins too, then we have an attack on Schleswig-Holstein by Denmark, trying to regain it's lost territories... Not sure how good the Danish army was at this time, but it will at least tie up Prussian troops.
If we really want to hurt Prussia, we can have Hanover (or some other former independent state taken over by Prussia) revolt... Causing more of the Prussian army to be called back from the battles with France and Austria. Give the Franco-Austrians some major victories, and they have a good chance of winning the "Franco-Prussian" war, which obviously isn't just Franco-Prussian anymore.

Also, the Papal States were absorbed by Italy after a French pullout. A France that wins the War, however, will most likely not pull out, so the Papal States remain, well, Papal.
 
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Under those circumstances the anti French portion of the German population would conduct negotiations with Russia and Britain, both of whom had a vested interest in preventing another French Empire in Europe. You would basically have another version of the Napoleonic Wars.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Redbeard said:
The French will be exstatic, and run about shouting: "Today le boche - tomorrow the world!" That might give some troubles in the future, and I'm quite certain that GB are not a likely ally of France. Russia will be a probable French ally, and if the Russians are given time to industrialise, that alliance will be quite a factor.

I'm not sure I would agree entirely with this. Britain had been an ally of Napoleon III in the Crimean War, and participated with the French in various other adventures including the pre-Maximiliian Mexican one. Napoleon III is now sufficiently ensonced on his throne, and his dynasty within France, that he's not considered an upstart, and a victory over Prussia is only going to emphasise this more.

OTL British sympathy for France was tempered severely by the events of c1868 where Bismarck revealed the secret correspondence he had had with Napoleon III over the possibility of France buying Luxembourg, or even partitioning Belgium. This evidence of French duplicity was not taken well. Ironically, with a German defeat, the Netherlands would probably sell Luxembourg to France anyway now - which had been what Willem III was minded to do in 1868 before everyone raised a stink.

I don't see how or why France is a natural ally of Russia ??? Historically France has had associations with both Egypt and the Ottomans. Austrian Balkan policy is at odds with Russian policy, and France is a more likely ally of Austria.

In fact, if you wanted to look at longer term trends I might well imagine a Franco-Austrian axis and a Berlin-Saint Petrersburg one as a weakened and defeated Prussia could look to a stronger Russian neighbour with whom they have had no history of antipathy

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
I don't see how or why France is a natural ally of Russia ??? Historically France has had associations with both Egypt and the Ottomans. Austrian Balkan policy is at odds with Russian policy, and France is a more likely ally of Austria.

Isn't it logical? Their spheres of interest don't overlap. Russia is interested in Eastern and Northern Europe, Turkey, Persia, India and the Far East; France is/was interested in hegemony in Western Europe, Africa, and earlier in North America. They don't have much in common, but their interests really don't clash.
 
Frankly, though if I were the Austrian chancellor, I would be inclined to sit on the fence. Austria had just lost a war with Prussia in 1866 and France had not provided any assistance.

If France did not perform well, then both Russia and Prussia were a lot closer geographically to Austria than France. In addition France and Austria do not have a common border, so any troops moving eastward from France would have to cross German territory, potentially alienating those states inclined to remain neutral.

Add to this the woeful state of the Austrian army. Most of its troops were still equipped with old fashioned muzzle loading rifles and artillery, which was hopelessly outclassed by modern breach loaders. In fact even the Confederate states, desperate for arms 8 years earlier; considered the Austrian muskets they purchased to be nearly worthless.

Any failure would be more likely to have far more adverse effects in Austria than in France. Therefore Austria has more to lose, and little to gain other than revenge.
 
Let's assume that for some reason a reasonably competent general ran the French side of the war after Napoleon III was dumb enough to start it. How would the French win?
1. Keep their army from being trapped in cities like Sedan, etc.
2. Keep raising armies with a more liberal coalition of parties more willing to raise taxes.
3. Keep the war going so Prussia runs out of money and allies.
4. Keep the war going so Prussia is over extended and tempting to Austria-Hungary and maybe Russia.
5. Keep the war going so the naval blockade of Prussia's allies bites deeper.
6. Keep the war going so Europe gets used to a France does not look so threatening to the rest of Europe, who remember Napoleon I so well.

What happens when France negotiates a peace treaty with the various German states?
1. Prussia loses it's west and south German territories to independence as sovereign states once again.
2. German Poland gets grabbed by Russia or Austria or both.
3. Alsace-Lorraine becomes independent, or is partitioned so that the German minority (well, majority, really) becomes more of a minority in the French retained areas on the Rhine, or both.
4. Maybe move a few borders a few miles to the satisfaction of Denmark and Belgium.

What are the results in Germany?
1. Germany is more politically and socially liberal without the influence of Prussia.
2. Germany is more economically united with Austria-Hungary since the urbanized German west is receptive to agricultural imports and the potato barons of Prussia can't interfere. That isn't meant as sarcasm, that was what some people called them.
3. Germany is still a customs union and perhaps a military alliance of a defensive sort, only. It was in self defense that Germany was united in the Franco-Prussian war, anyway.
4. Germany doesn't have any minority Poles and a lot fewer minority Jews and Wends. No Belgians, or French, or Danes, either.

What are the results in Europe?
1. The war was about who was going to be king of Spain. Someone else becomes king. Who?
2. Italy doesn't ally with France against Germany and Austria. Italy still sees France as the big bully of Europe, like everyone else in Europe since about 1700.
3. Austria has more Poles and Germans, to the discomfiture of the Hungarians.

And last of all, what happens to France?
1. France has more tendency to throw it's weight around with Britain.
2. France stays a monarchy. With a regency controling the education of Napoleon IV?
 
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