Aztecs wipe out Cortez's army. European settlement deflected into Middle East

What if:-?
On the Noche Triste the Aztecs wipe out Cortez's army. They get horses and guns. Assorted pirates and adventurers take servide under the Aztec Empire in exchange for gold. Aztecs get enough of a European type army and navy to see off later Spanish etc attacks. Actec Empire persists (it is hoped without human sacrifice).

This deflects Spanish etc expansion and colonization. Spain takes Morocco. This starts a scramble for the Middle East. There is a crucial naval battle against the Ottoman fleet, and after that the Middle East is open. (Greece etc get indepdence sooner than OTL and with less trouble.) This catches the native population of the Middle East low (due to the long Turkish misrule), and in most fertile areas the natives are soon swamped by European setlers. Algeria is French majority. The Nile Delta is British majority, plus Hindu Indians brought in by sea from Gujerat etc to make numbers up. No need to dispossess natives, as OTL at the time much of the Nile Delta was uninhabited swamp. Jewish settlement in Palestine starts sooner and is bigger and includes Transjordan. French majority in Syria, and Germans around Aleppo. British majority in Iraq, much of it in land got by Fens-style draining the southern marshes and lakes.

With so many Europeans about, oil is discovered in Arabia sooner than OTL, attracting oil money, which soon funds terrorism to try to drive the Europeans out. (Think OTL Israel but across the whole fertile Middle East.) Trouble escalates until the final retaliation and a March on Mecca. The advance gets beseiged in Medina until Britain intervenes. The advance continues. The Battle of Mecca lasts 17 days and leaves little standing. Nearly every man of fighting age in Arabia answers the call to try to defend the holy places, but most fall in battle.

Patching up the holy places ready for the next Hajj is used as a cover to smuggle weapons in. Native rebellion, which is put down after 8 days. The Hajj is not allowed again after that.
 
reconquestia

IIRC Spain was prepared to move on with the reconquestia, into Morocco, east.
Columubus, Cortez, and Company, derailed this. Even if the reconquestia had gone on, I doubt it would lead to a sramble for Africa. Europe wasn't thinking like that at the time.
 
Since Cortez pretty much was acting upon his own authority when he encountered the Aztecs and the Spanish had a fairly large foothold in the Caribbean (exactly what pirates are you talking about? - theres no 'Spanish Main' yet in the classic sense) I don't see anything that would stop the Spanish exploiting the New World. I think if deflected from Mexico, the Spanish would probably settle on expanding along the Northern Gulf coast and up into the Mississippi River valley.

The Aztecs don't get horses or guns. First, how long will it take them to figure out animal husbandry for an animal they've never seen before. I don't think they have a large enough amount of horses to breed them in any great numbers. Secondly, so they have guns - so what! they can't make them let alone make gunpowder. No net gain. The lure of gold will still bring the Europeans in and they will still be vulnerable to disease.
 
Morocco was already a Portuguese playground. Also, that would be against the Tordesilhas Treaty, so the Pope wouldn't be happy.
 
You forgot Turkey

In 1492 the Turks were a dominant military power. The Med Arabs were difficult enough, forget about attacking Egypt and Turkey (Mecca and Medina).
Now if the Turks had sent a missionary ship to Mexico while the Spaniards were still raping and looting in the Caribbean....
 
Anthony Appleyard said:
What if:-?


This deflects Spanish etc expansion and colonization. Spain takes Morocco. This starts a scramble for the Middle East. There is a crucial naval battle against the Ottoman fleet, and after that the Middle East is open. (Greece etc get indepdence sooner than OTL and with less trouble.) This catches the native population of the Middle East low (due to the long Turkish misrule), and in most fertile areas the natives are soon swamped by European setlers. Algeria is French majority. The Nile Delta is British majority, plus Hindu Indians brought in by sea from Gujerat etc to make numbers up. No need to dispossess natives, as OTL at the time much of the Nile Delta was uninhabited swamp. Jewish settlement in Palestine starts sooner and is bigger and includes Transjordan. French majority in Syria, and Germans around Aleppo. British majority in Iraq, much of it in land got by Fens-style draining the southern marshes and lakes.


Whoa- were the Middle Easterners reaally that demographically weak at this time? What happened to the powerful Turkish land army for example?
Why will pre-enlightenment Europe support Jewish settlement in Palestine instead of a new Crusader state?

Depending on the relative strengths I could see the Europeans gaining alot of North Africa, but the Turks (or Persians?)will probably be willing and able to defend the Levant at least down to Suez, though this might distract them from getting further in the Balkans.
 
I don't think any European conquest of the Middle East stands a chance in the 1500s. For one thing, the technology and infrastructure were not really up to long-distance running of large, recalcitrant colonies at the other end of complicated supply lines. The Portuguese in the Indian Ocean had a hell of a time keeping hold of their small naval bases even though their maritime technology was worlds ahead of everything else in the area. The Spanish conquests in the Americas were aided by disease, far superior military technology, and the tougher domestic fauna - none of these advantages would play in the Mideast.

The Turkish Empire at the time was a cosmopolitan and wealthy place. Its military was pretty terrifying - two of the biggest European powers of its time, Spain at sea and the Empire on land, barely managed to hold their own at the end of Ottoman supply lines (only the weather saved Vienna in 1529 - if it wasn't the beer - , Charles V narrowly escaped death at the siege of Tunis, and Lepanto was a damned close run thing). An invasion of the heartland would very likely fail ignominiously. Also, I don't think the Spanish at the time would have had much success governing a Muslim population. In their own country they solved the cultural problems by expelling or killing every last Jew, Muslim, and heretic (which, incidentally, created a large, widely connected, cultured, skilful and grudge-bearing population of Sephardi Jewish refugees throughout the Ottoman empire, with beneficial effects for the local economy). I don't think forced conversion, exile or death is much of an option if you try to run a Muslim country. Admittedly, by the later 16th century the Portuguese and Dutch had better approaches to the same problem, but they were busy elsewhere.

I guess that without the Aztec Empire conquered, Spain would continue to gain ground in the Americas, but have less incentive to do so (no gold pouring in like water, just agricultural colonies creating 'normal' wealth). If the Aztecs actually manage to keep them out (which is highly dubious, even with Cortez dead), Spain will fold earlier and cause less trouble in Europe - no Armada campaign, no 50-years Dutch independence war, and a much freer hand for France in Germany and Italy. This could even help a resurgent Ottoman Empire as the French were notorious for cooperating with the Sultan. Without Spanish subsidies, the emperor may have to be a lot more tolerant towards his Protestant subjects if he wants troops to defend Vienna. He might not manage. Equally, Venice and the Knights of St John alone will have a harder time defending the Eastern Med. Crete could fall a century earlier. A French Western Europe, an Ottoman Eastern Med, a Protestant North and a much more culturally dominant and influential Germany without a Thirty Years' War, but with a Turkish bugaboo just scary enough to make them pull together. This could get interesting...
 
I was imagining mass European migration to the Middle East starting around 1800, ad the Battle of Mecca in 1880'ish or the 1920's.
The Aztecs had one necessary ingredient for gunpowder: sulphur deposits on the volcano Popocatepetl.
 
Would you like to back up that claim about "long Ottoman misrule?" While Cortez was in Mexico the Ottomans were at their peak, and I can't think of a single way in which Catholic rule was preferable to Ottoman at this time. the Christians of Chios, Crete, and Cyprus as well as much of the Balkans welcomed the Ottomans as liberators from their Latin oppressors. Ottoman taxation was about 1/8 of typical European, and their was no corvee (forced labor), serfdom, or religious oppression.

Any Spanish attempt at colonizing the Mid East would have resulted in the destruction of Spain as a power earlier than historical, and putting the security of the HRE at risk for being alone. Your scenario is more likely to result in a Muslim Germany than it is Western colonization of the Mid East.

If the Aztecs had crushed the Spanish, Spain's conquest would merely have taken longer. The Aztecs were hated oppressors over their neighbors, and it would have been easy for Spain to form alliances with other native cities to overthrow them - that's how Cortez did it, after all.
 
If Spain never made a foothold in Mexico, that doesn't mean Europe will give up on the new world. There's nothing to stop the OTL settlements in the future US, Canada, and S. America. If we're imagining that Spain gives up on the new world, that just leaves the door open for France and England. Even if the Aztecs manage to get European weapons and horses, they would still be so devestated by disease that I can imagine them falling to English/US forces from the north....
 
A Cortez disaster puts Mexico on hold but Spain pursues glory and gold elsewhere in the Americas. Aztecs will neither abandon human sacrifice (actually with this being a troubled time for them look for increased production) nor survive long term. Spain will be coming back. Disease is coming with them.

A slight acceleration of Spain's plans for Morocco is all I can see.
 
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