Nope, your POD, which I assume is the earlier secession of the upper South, won't work for the reasons you give. You have Lincoln issuing orders in February of 1861 like he was President or something...LoL, sorry. My point is wasn't inaugurated until March 4, 1861, and thus, could not issue orders until, at least, the 5th of March.
The secessions of the upper South came about as early as possible: Virginia on April 17th; Arkansas, May 6; North Carolina, May 20; and Tennessee, June 8. Say Lincoln takes a week to formulate a plan and call up troops. Orders go out and arrive in all the right locations a week to two weeks later. Two weeks of debate (secession is a big deal and requires a lot of thought) in the upper South. A week to talk to both sides, CSA and USA, puts us on...April 15th. So, as you see, the earliest the upper South was going to secede with Lincoln as President was around the middle of April, when they did in OTL.
LoL, I think I may have made that a little confusing...