can anybody think up a realistic TL where the UK breaks up (peacefully or not) within recent times? PODs since the 1980s right through to present day would be great, but amn't really looking for anythin before the late 20th century.
UK breaks up recently
- Thread starter Martin McNamara
- Start date
WI 1 looks at the political machinations of some Pakistani communities in England to form their own separate Islamic ministates (somewhat like a British DAR-EL-ISLAM) within the UK ? Then there'd probably be a race war between these Muslims and Combat 19, the National Front and other rightwing British white supremacists. Of course, this scenario also plays along to the population projection that by 2080 native-born whites in the UK will be a minority compared to nonwhite immigrants.
Then 1 could also have a greater degree of devolution to regional govts in Wales, Scotland and northern Ireland.
Then 1 could also have a greater degree of devolution to regional govts in Wales, Scotland and northern Ireland.
NapoleonXIV
Banned
Beat me! Oh well, Braveheart gets 10 Academy Awards and is released in time for the elections. Scotland becomes independent and Mel Gibson its first PM 
With a slightly dumber and more heavy-handed reaction by the Thatcher government to Scottish and Welsh nationalism, the situation could have turned very ugly. The Conservativeshad little or nothing to lose in Scortland and WAles - hardly anyone out there voted Tory in generations. On the otherhand, there was support to be garnered in the Home Counties by leaning on 'loudmouth shirkers' and 'welfare drains' and favour curried with the Ulster Loyalists by demonstrating a tough line on rebels. Not that I'd envision civil war breaking out or anything, but I could well imagine a majority in both countries voting for nationalist parties and, come devolution (as it would - the Brits aren't *that* dumb, even the worst of the Tories) opting for a solution in terms of a 'close confederation of nations' or somesuch formula. Give this setup ten years, with English high-handedness, resentment of London's economic dominance, growing poverty in some outlying regions, and simmering conflict between nationalists overtaxed with the responsibility of actually running a country, loyalists choosing to be difficult about every aspect of life in the new Scotland and Wales, and a lot of acrimony about things like defense budget shares, national projects, oil revenues, and exchande and interest rate management and the confederation wouldn't be so close any more. Think Czechia and Slovakia
1994 – Gordon Brown stands against and defeats Tony Blair for the leadership of the Labour Party.
1997 – Without Blair as leader, the Labour Party doesn’t gain the support of Britain’s major businesses and traditionally right-wing tabloids like the Sun continue to support the Conservative Party. At the General Election in May Labour fails to gain the support from the English middle class that it did in OTL largely due to the style of Blair. Seats that swung from Conservative to Labour, mostly either swing to the Liberal Democrats or stay Conservative, who remain the single largest party in a hung Parliament (no party with overall majority). As in OTL the Conservatives fail to win any of the 72 Scottish constituencies, which massively support Labour. John Major remains Prime Minister as both the Ulster Unionist Party and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) join a coalition giving the Conservatives a tiny majority.
1998 – Labour, the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party (SNP) demand a referendum for Scotland on creating a devolved Parliament in Edinburgh – pointing out that the Government was the only party arguing against home rule and that Scots clearly wanted it as they didn’t elect a single Tory MP. The Government refuses to hold a referendum and there is considerable discontent in Scotland towards the Conservative British Government. Due to the influence of the extreme DUP, the Good Friday Agreement is never reached and violence resumes in Northern Ireland.
1999 – The EU imposes drastic cuts on fishing cod in the North Sea and many Scottish fishermen lose their jobs. The opposition parties slam the government for failing to negotiate a better deal for Britain’s fishermen and the SNP suggest that the Tories are not concerned with Scotland’s interests as they have no Scottish MPs. The government considers a referendum on a Scottish Assembly with limited powers, but the 2 Ulster parties within the coalition reject it outright, fearing it would weaken their position supporting direct rule of Northern Ireland from London. Frustrated with his government’s reliance on Ulster parties after his years of work for peace in the province, John Major resigns as Prime Minister, replaced by his Foreign Secretary Michael Howard.
2000 – The government calls an early general election as its support increased due to victory in the Kosovo War. It is re-elected with an increased number of Conservative MPs but still needs the support of the Ulster Unionists (but not the more extreme Democratic Unionists). Scotland elects 15 SNP MPs, mostly from the Highlands and east coast where the fishing industry was hurt; again it elects no Conservatives, who large elements of the Scottish population also blame for the increased problems in Northern Ireland. Scots also despise PM Howard who they see as being responsible for the hated 1990 Poll Tax, started in Scotland a year before England. Tony Blair challenges Brown and becomes new Labour Party leader. The Government agrees to demands for a referendum on a Scottish Assembly, which is passed with the support of 86% of the population.
2001 - In the Assembly elections the SNP have a majority as the Conservatives Government opposed proportional representation (fearing demands for it in HoC elections) and Labour support plummets after bitter leadership contest. The Scottish devolved government demand a Scottish Parliament with much greater powers. The Scottish Assembly holds a ‘consultative referendum’ which the Scottish people pass by over 65%. The Assembly then passes a resolution giving itself full powers as the Scottish Parliament, and the First Minister Alex Salmond (SNP) petitions the Queen for renegotiation of the treaty that became the 1707 Act of Union. Privately, the Queen pressures the Prime Minister who agrees to hold talks in London with the Scottish leadership (Assemblymen and MPs). Nationalists in Northern Ireland demand the talks be made for all the UK. The Irish Government in Dublin publicly criticises the UK Government and supports nationalists calls, following a series of murders of innocent catholics by loyalist paramilitaries in both Northern Ireland and the Republic’s northern counties of Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan. The Scottish Assembly adopts a motion calling for UK-wide talks, which the UK government eventually accepts as English public opinion swings against the unionists.
2002 – a deal is reached between the UK Government and the Scottish leadership which creates the 'Articles of Confederation' for the nations of the UK, which includes: A Scottish Parliament created in Edinburgh with extensive legislative and tax-raising powers (more powerful than the devolved Scottish parliament in OTL). When legislating for England and Wales alone, the UK Parliament is to be retitled the ‘Parliament of England and Wales’ and Scottish MPs (including government ministers) are not to enter the House of Commons. In a change to the UK ‘constitution’ following a UK Parliament General Election, the House of Commons is to formally elect both a Prime Minister of the UK and then as the English & Welsh Parliament a First Minister of England and Wales (in practice these will usually be the same person). The UK Parliament is to have only powers relating to foreign affairs and defence, leaving the Parliament of England and Wales and the Scottish Parliament effectively controlling all domestic matters.
Within a decade the English would become frustrated at Scottish influence in UK foreign policy and would start to want to control their own foreign and defence policy. This would be a major problem if the UKPM and the First Minister of England and Wales were from different parties. Scots may also start to want their own seat in the Eus council of ministers and would have greater relations with smaller EU states like Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Also, what would happen in Northern Ireland? Disaster? Out-right civil war? Or maybe both sides would have to come together and reach a solution for all their people now that the UK has split. There are massive holes in this post but it's the most likely way i can think of.
1997 – Without Blair as leader, the Labour Party doesn’t gain the support of Britain’s major businesses and traditionally right-wing tabloids like the Sun continue to support the Conservative Party. At the General Election in May Labour fails to gain the support from the English middle class that it did in OTL largely due to the style of Blair. Seats that swung from Conservative to Labour, mostly either swing to the Liberal Democrats or stay Conservative, who remain the single largest party in a hung Parliament (no party with overall majority). As in OTL the Conservatives fail to win any of the 72 Scottish constituencies, which massively support Labour. John Major remains Prime Minister as both the Ulster Unionist Party and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) join a coalition giving the Conservatives a tiny majority.
1998 – Labour, the Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party (SNP) demand a referendum for Scotland on creating a devolved Parliament in Edinburgh – pointing out that the Government was the only party arguing against home rule and that Scots clearly wanted it as they didn’t elect a single Tory MP. The Government refuses to hold a referendum and there is considerable discontent in Scotland towards the Conservative British Government. Due to the influence of the extreme DUP, the Good Friday Agreement is never reached and violence resumes in Northern Ireland.
1999 – The EU imposes drastic cuts on fishing cod in the North Sea and many Scottish fishermen lose their jobs. The opposition parties slam the government for failing to negotiate a better deal for Britain’s fishermen and the SNP suggest that the Tories are not concerned with Scotland’s interests as they have no Scottish MPs. The government considers a referendum on a Scottish Assembly with limited powers, but the 2 Ulster parties within the coalition reject it outright, fearing it would weaken their position supporting direct rule of Northern Ireland from London. Frustrated with his government’s reliance on Ulster parties after his years of work for peace in the province, John Major resigns as Prime Minister, replaced by his Foreign Secretary Michael Howard.
2000 – The government calls an early general election as its support increased due to victory in the Kosovo War. It is re-elected with an increased number of Conservative MPs but still needs the support of the Ulster Unionists (but not the more extreme Democratic Unionists). Scotland elects 15 SNP MPs, mostly from the Highlands and east coast where the fishing industry was hurt; again it elects no Conservatives, who large elements of the Scottish population also blame for the increased problems in Northern Ireland. Scots also despise PM Howard who they see as being responsible for the hated 1990 Poll Tax, started in Scotland a year before England. Tony Blair challenges Brown and becomes new Labour Party leader. The Government agrees to demands for a referendum on a Scottish Assembly, which is passed with the support of 86% of the population.
2001 - In the Assembly elections the SNP have a majority as the Conservatives Government opposed proportional representation (fearing demands for it in HoC elections) and Labour support plummets after bitter leadership contest. The Scottish devolved government demand a Scottish Parliament with much greater powers. The Scottish Assembly holds a ‘consultative referendum’ which the Scottish people pass by over 65%. The Assembly then passes a resolution giving itself full powers as the Scottish Parliament, and the First Minister Alex Salmond (SNP) petitions the Queen for renegotiation of the treaty that became the 1707 Act of Union. Privately, the Queen pressures the Prime Minister who agrees to hold talks in London with the Scottish leadership (Assemblymen and MPs). Nationalists in Northern Ireland demand the talks be made for all the UK. The Irish Government in Dublin publicly criticises the UK Government and supports nationalists calls, following a series of murders of innocent catholics by loyalist paramilitaries in both Northern Ireland and the Republic’s northern counties of Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan. The Scottish Assembly adopts a motion calling for UK-wide talks, which the UK government eventually accepts as English public opinion swings against the unionists.
2002 – a deal is reached between the UK Government and the Scottish leadership which creates the 'Articles of Confederation' for the nations of the UK, which includes: A Scottish Parliament created in Edinburgh with extensive legislative and tax-raising powers (more powerful than the devolved Scottish parliament in OTL). When legislating for England and Wales alone, the UK Parliament is to be retitled the ‘Parliament of England and Wales’ and Scottish MPs (including government ministers) are not to enter the House of Commons. In a change to the UK ‘constitution’ following a UK Parliament General Election, the House of Commons is to formally elect both a Prime Minister of the UK and then as the English & Welsh Parliament a First Minister of England and Wales (in practice these will usually be the same person). The UK Parliament is to have only powers relating to foreign affairs and defence, leaving the Parliament of England and Wales and the Scottish Parliament effectively controlling all domestic matters.
Within a decade the English would become frustrated at Scottish influence in UK foreign policy and would start to want to control their own foreign and defence policy. This would be a major problem if the UKPM and the First Minister of England and Wales were from different parties. Scots may also start to want their own seat in the Eus council of ministers and would have greater relations with smaller EU states like Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Also, what would happen in Northern Ireland? Disaster? Out-right civil war? Or maybe both sides would have to come together and reach a solution for all their people now that the UK has split. There are massive holes in this post but it's the most likely way i can think of.