Dividing the Empire

Xen

Banned
The Ottoman Empire has been a particularly popular subject of late, its history is rich and fascinating and like all nations it past and present it has its up side and its dark side. One of the most tragic things about the Empire is it did not advance with the rest of Europe. By the nineteenth century the Ottoman's were seeminlgy always at war with Russia, although the Ottoman Armies fought hard, the Russian's had the upper hand. Once to keep the Russians from taking control of Eastern Europe, Britain and France had to intervene, that was the Crimean War. A generation later Russia and the Ottomans were at war again, only this time the Ottomans would not receive help from Europe. They had improved technological wise since the Crimean War, but the Russians still had the upperhand and nearly took Constantinople, and would have had the British not stepped in.

So what is my POD? What if Europe and Russia had agreed to partition the Ottoman Empire. Its not impossible to think of, the British had the major concern over losing the Suez and a land route to India, they also had a concern over Russia controlling the straights.

Austria was concerned over Slavic nationalism and Russian influence in the Balkans. Russia wanted to take Constantinople for Christianity since it fell in 1453, and saw themselves as heir to the Byzantine Empire.

Germany was concerned about its influence in Europe and building an Empire, while France was still reeling from the Franco-Prussian War. Spain is too weak and concerned about its domestic affairs to get involved, and Italy doesnt have the power to have a whole lot of say, but they are emerging.

Russian papers printed off stories of how cruel the Ottomans were treating the Christians in the Balkans and throughout its Empire. This was printed in the rest of Europe, but it did not have the same effect as it did in Russia. Now we will have Europe act the same way as Russia to these stories, making it difficult for any government to declare war on Russia and enjoy the support of its people. After the failure of the London Conference, the great powers of Europe meet in Paris. It is a meeting in which they address the concerns they have over the Eastern Question, it is also a meeting in which the Ottomans are snubbed. A compromise is reached and the Russians are given the green light by Europe.

The Russian's laid seige to Constantinople, taking the city in the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78. The Sultan and his government fled the capital to Ankara. The Russian's crossed the striaght and took control of both sides of the Bosphorus leading to the Ottoman's surrendor.

The bulk of the Ottoman Empire was partitioned according to the terms of the concert of Paris.

- Palestine, Egypt, southern Iraq and a small piece of Anatolia (just south of the Bosphorus) became part of the British Empire
- Lebanon and Antioch was partitioned by the French and German Empires
- Italy got Albania
- Russia got Constantinople
- Austria got Bosnia and a small bit of Russian Poland
- Greece more than doubled in size, growing to its present day borders and including Thrace and Macedonia
- Serbia, Herzegovina and Montenegro was formed into the Kingdom of Serbia
- Wallachia and Bessarabia was united as the Kingdom of Rumania under a Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen King
- Bulgaria became a Kingdom under a German prince
- Hejaz became independent

The Ottoman Empire became isolationist and conservative. A flood of its Turkish/Muslim citizens flooded across the straights. Most resettled in Anatolia, thousands went to Cyprus to start a new life or resettled on one of the Aegean islands.

The Concert of Paris had hoped it solved the Eastern question, and by sacraficing the Ottoman Empire it had bought a new period of peace.

Greeks who had went to America found themselves coming back home to settle in Thrace where they were given land by the Greek government in Athens. The city of Adrianople had become a bustling metropolice, and had been breifly rumored to be the new capital. Constantinople in a few short years had become almost entirely ethnicly Russian. It was in Constantinople where Alexander II wrote the Constitution of Russia in 1882, restricting the powers of the Monarch, and creating a powerful Duma.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Xen said:
- Palestine, Egypt, southern Iraq and a small piece of Anatolia (just south of the Bosphorus) became part of the British Empire
- Lebanon and Antioch was partitioned by the French and German Empires
- Italy got Albania
- Russia got Constantinople
- Austria got Bosnia and a small bit of Russian Poland
- Greece more than doubled in size, growing to its present day borders and including Thrace and Macedonia
- Bulgaria became a Kingdom under a German prince

The scenario sounds plausible enough, but I'm having trouble visualizing this. If Greece gets Thrace and Macedonia, where is Bulgaria? Do you mean the current parts of Thrace and Macedonia that Greece has? (IIRC OTL Thrace is currently partitioned between Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey, and Macedonia has been split up between FYROM and Greece).

If you want to beef Greece up, I'd suggest giving them Southern Albania, Aegean Thrace and Macedonia (around Thessaloniki), Ionia (around Smyrna, at least), Cyprus, and possibly the Black Sea Coast around Trabzon. Alternatively, Trabzon could be under Russian protection along with Armenia and Georgia. Bulgaria could have everything north of the OTL Greek and Turkish borders, as well as OTL FYROM. Russia might administer the Sevres "Zone of the Straits" or possibly split things up with Britain - Britain could get Asiatic Istanbul and Russia could get European Istanbul, and to each their respective hinterlands. Greece Asia Minor and British Asia Minor might meet near Assos or in the vicinity of Lesvos.

The Germans could get Adana, Antakya, and Kurdistan, and the French could get everything south of that region as far as Palestine and the Trans-Jordan, which the Brits would control, along with southern Mesopotamia as far as Muhammerah, and maybe even Arabestan. I can't remember if the Turks controlled al-Ahwaz in those days or if it had been turned over to the Qajars yet. Nice straight lines.
 

Xen

Banned
Im at work right now so I dont have a good program to make a map showing the partition of eastern Europe, but if you look at a map of Europe now, take Greece in its present borders and add the Turkish part of Europe to it, and then add Macedonia, Im sure they'd also get a small bit of Albania too, most of it going to Italy though. It would make it intresting, an Italian-Greek rivalry over Albania. Both will send missionaries to try and convert the Albanian population from Islam to Christianity, but Italy will try to turn them into Catholics, while Greece tries to turn them to Orthodoxy.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Here's a rough image of what I was thinking:

map.jpg
 

Susano

Banned
I ask the same. Those CIA factbooks maps are cool, but I can never edit them in their own style, so to say!
 
Most likely wouldn't work since, for the British, the Russians are gaining access to Constantinople and access to the Mediterranean. If the Russians were to receive any place else besides direct access through the Straits then things may work out.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
DominusNovus said:
Thats an incredibly well done map, how'd ya do it?

Thanks! :) I use Photoshop 7.0 - especially the eyedropper, rubber stamp, and paint-brush tools. If I had more time (I'm working on a project due tomorrow) I'd try to make one that was more polished, a little less rough around the edges.
 
Scott,

The Turkish defenses at Plevna held up long enough for the Brits to move a good-sized fleet into range of Constantinople. Even though "the eagles of Muscovy were on the shores of the Propontis" (a nifty quote from Alexander II and the Modernization of Russia, one of my Mom's old college books), the Russians weren't willing to take on the Brits.

A Fait Accompli is something else entirely...

To better develop the POD, we could have the defens at Plevna fall earlier and the Russians have just occupied Constantinople when the Brits arrive. We have the resulting war scare leading to an international conference where they start "carving up the Turkey" (sorry John).
 

Faeelin

Banned
I suspect the heavens are about to open up and the last trumpet sound, for I'm going to preemptively agree with John and say the Russians shall not have Constantinople.

Greece might be doable, but would the tsar see it that way?
 
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The British and Russians could Compromise and give Bzyantium to the Greeks, a Christian Constantinople, with out Russian access to the Mediterranean.
 

Leo Caesius

Banned
Greater Greece

Here's the Greater Greece that I was talking about, including the territory that was granted to Greece at Sevres plus southern Albania (at least, the area with a sizable Greek and Vlach minorities).

Constantinople remained under Turkish control; the territory on either side of the straits was neutralized and internationalized.

greece.jpg
 
Cool map of Greater Greece. Seems fair demographically (though there might be issues in the former Albanian terroritories and there were a few Turkish folks in the eastern parts).
 
Faeelin said:
I suspect the heavens are about to open up and the last trumpet sound, for I'm going to preemptively agree with John and say the Russians shall not have Constantinople.

Greece might be doable, but would the tsar see it that way?

The biggest surprise of 1876-7 was that, contrary to European expectations, the Ottomans did NOT collapse. In fact, they quite easily handled a number of very serious crises. Let's look at things:

1876 - the Sultan is deposed and replaced. The new Sultan has a nervous breakdown and is replaced. That's two monarchs deposed in three months, no bloodshed, no revolution, the government continues to operate. (Well, there were a few "suicides" and an assassination or two at the very top).

1875-77 A brutal famine leasds to revolts all over the Balkans, principally Bosnia-Herzogovina and Bulgaria. Montenegro and Serbia declare was and invade. The Ottomans put down all the revolts, and crush Serbia in a few weeks despite a large number of Russian volunteer soldiers and officers, and a Russian general commanding the Serbian army. Meanwhile in Constantinople, the Ottomans write and promulgate a constitution and elect a Parliament.

At this point, the Grand Vizier, Midhat Pasha, gets uppity, and ignoring the advice of the Sultan, refuses to make any concessions to the Powers, arguing that the constitution answers all their compaints. As a result, Russia declares war.

Surprising everyone again, the Ottomans put up a pretty good fight, especially considering everything they had just been through. The Russians were in no position to take Constantinople; they were completely exhausted, and that's why the Treaty of San Stefano was replaced with the Treaty of Berlin. If the Russians had been in a posistion to take Constantinople, they would have, British fleet or no. They would not have been allowed to keep it, but it would have put them in the driver's seat at the negotiating table.

The POD is somehow an incompetent commander is placed in charge of the Ottoman army and Plevna does not hold out.

So, let's look at divisions.

Greece:

No chance of Western Anatolia. That was a later claim, and was based upon immigration from the Aegean Isles that was occurring at the time. By WWI there was a Greek minority in the Area, but in 1877 it was negligible. They would have gotten some Aegean Isles, Thessaly, and that's about it. Possibly Crete. Remember, Greece at this time consisted only of the Morea, Attica, and the Cyclades. They had no chance of aquiring everything on the attached Greater Greece map, nor did they have the resources to hold onto all that. Most of "Greater Greece" has Greek minorities, in some cases very small ones, as in Albania, Macedonia, and Thrace. Salonika has a Jewish majority, and very few Greek inhabitants. A horrendous amount of ethnic cleansing was required for the Balkan States to acquire any degree of homogeneity, especially in what is now N. Greece and in Bulgaria.

Russia

A small amount of territory in Eastern Anatolia, and the piece of Besserabia lost in the Crimean War. That's it, and that's all they were really after.

Bulgaria

The big winner. First of all, they are created, and as a large state comprising all of today's Bulgaria with much of the Dobruja and Macedonia.

Serbia

Nish.

Montenegro

Some of Albania

Armenia

No Armenia. At the Berlin Conference, their claims were rejected, as Western commissions had gone to the area and determined that their population statistics were fabricated and they in fact consisted of only a small minority in the region, and in this era they did not have the sympathy that the massacres of the 1890s generated.

Britain

Cyprus. That's it. They had absolutely no interest in gaining any other territory in the Mid East. Zero.

France

Protectorate over Lebanon, which would remain Ottoman territory. That would be their quid pro quo for accepting Russian gains.

Austria-Hungary

Bosnia and Herzogovina, plus occupation of Novi-Pazar to prevent Serbia and Montenegro from having a common border (Novi-Pazar has a large Muslim majority; that is why it wasn't annexed historically)

Istanbul

Remains Ottoman but an international convention governs what happens to the Straits, and the Ottomans retain only linited sovereignty.

Essentially, you would end up with the Treaty of San Stefano in this scenario, but the Ottomans would be left with no Balkan territory except Western Thrace.

The big question mark is Albania. It would likely be left nominally suject to the Sultan but effectively independent, and would be a source of constant friction between Greece, Montenegro, and Italy, and possibly Austria-Hungary. Eventually, there would probably be some sort of conference that choses a Christian monarch, who will never be able to control the country, and it will eventually either be divided amongst its neighbors or become a protectorate of Italy.

The Ottomans lose big time, and territorially are basically what they were at WWI, minus some of E. Anatolia, but have far less independence, probably becoming a Russian client-state, until some sort of nationalist regime shows up in the 20th c.
 
Treaty_Of_Sevres.gif
Sevres could stay status quo, Turkey failing to regain Smyrna with help from outside forces...Turkey turns into a distoratial state and instead of Italy helps a resurgent Germany against all of western Europe (Italy gaining Anatolia south of Tuz Gal.
 
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