The Armada's chances were very bad.
Especially when they finally got through the channel to link up with the Duke of Parma in the Netherlands and found out he had done nothing to prepare and had no transports available to move his army over to England.
Of course, in the long run the genealogical collapse of the Hapsburgs can not be delayed, and the more nations under their thumb, the worse it's going to be. Not to mention the fate of the Catholic Church as it becomes increasingly seen as the Hapsburg Church.
Long term effects:
Holland: Very happy. Spain was at the end of its rope. There is simply no way needing to fight a major war and occupation in England(and Scotland?) is not going to ease the pressure on them. Quite probable that Spain is also forced to divert resources into France.
France: Royally screwed. The Protestants never settle down and become loyalists to the king, instead ultimately carving their own nation out of the French southwest. Given the leadership of Henry of Navarre, and the bumbling incompetence of his rival for the crown, France will be a second-class power, stripped of the southwest and probably Brittany, having never gained the territories of Louis XIV.
No doubt some 20th century synod upsets historians by agreeing Henry of Navarre was the rightful king and the church's failiure to support him is what helped to end the greatness of France.
Spain: No real change, except that when the collapse comes in the mid-17th Century, they have a sea of enemies and no real hope. Quite possibly we even see revolts supported, leaving not only the restoration of Portugal but of Aragon as well. Possible loss of some colonies sooner, or even a few never lost in OTL.
Ireland: Long term disaster. For 10 to 50 years they are better off, and enjoy some fame/infamy as mercenaries, but when the tide turns... Let's just say the English have international Protestant support in subsequent brutality. Wouldn't rule out even worse treatment, probably greater effort to import Protestants and crush the church, perhaps we speak of the nine counties today.
Scotland: Looked to as organizer of English liberation, probably enjoys a higher position in theory to this day, possibly even in reality. If nothing else, a decision in the 17th Century to base the New Model Army more heavily on Scots troops could be interesting.
England: Long period of struggle and guerilla activity, many ships and refugees based in Holland and/or Scotland. Extremely nasty when Spainish power collapses, probably under Philip II's successor. No doubt this period 1588 to the 1630s is filled with duelling historical claims of atrocities given and received.
30 Year War: The Catholic mainstay, the Hapsburgs, have been forced into more costly wars devouring money and men at a much higher rater since 1588 and now this? France is probably not hostile but count England and Scotland on the list of enemies, probably Dutch involvment as well in a Grand Protestant Alliance. The war goes worse for the Catholics.
The concept of nationalism has taken at least a small hit as thousands of Protestant veterans eagerly sell their services to whichever Protestant leader needs them. This does not help the Germans.
Prussia: The war ended before they could recover from the disasters of the first half. No spoils. Prussia becomes a minor player.
Sweden: Receives some lands Prussia would have gotten. An important player in northern Germany for a long time.
Russia: Who can say? Possibly the Protestant/Catholic wars enable Peter the Great to carve out his window on the west? Or the Protestant League comes down on him and Russia remains a backward semi-Asiatic power?
Holland: Longer war but under less consistent degree of pressure. Probably a few more colonies, perhaps absorbing the Flemish speaking areas of Belgium and even portions of Hanover(NW Germany). When the century of greatness ends, a larger and more significant power.
Belgian Congo: No Belgium, no Congo. Not that this helps Africa much.
France: About 20-25% of 1588 France is the Kingdom of Navarre. Alsace-Lorraine is German. The border improvements vis a vis Spanish Netherlands and NW Italy also never happened. The monarchy is never able to become absolute, given the many enemies always prepared to support a rebellious noble. High probability at least one additional province(Brittany?) hostile to the House of Guise is able to set up independently.
Scotland: Earlier association with England but since Scotland is the liberator and leading partner...probably a greater status in the UK, possibly even more of Ireland and Northern England settled by Scots.
England: Short-term bloodbath, long-term rise to power as Holland did, literally over the dead body of Spanish colonies, Spanish trade, and the Spanish silver fleet. Probable earlier/larger scale colonization of North America. A military force in Europe earlier.
The United States: The big question is given my assumptions regarding a slight decline in nationalism, and a higher degree of respect for Scotland from England, does this equate to a compromise and settlement between King George III and the Continental Congress/North American Sub-Parliament?