Haiti 1994: Op RESTORE DEMOCRACY opposed

It'll be the 10th anniversary of Op RESTORE DEMOCRACY by Sept this yr, when the repressive military junta of Gen Cedras in Haiti, which had ousted democratically-elected Pres Aristide in 1991 and committed gross human rights abuses, was compelled to step down or face a fullscale US military intervention. OTL, the JCS had organised a very detailed plan for the invasion of Haiti, and the 82nd Airborne in Sept 1994 was actually fully emplaned and prepared for a combat jump into Port-au-Prince, which was rendered unnecessary by the junta agreeing at the last minute to a compromise from Pres Jimmy Carter, Gen Colin Powell and Sen Sam Nunn which would allow the dictators to be given an amnesty for their crimes of forcibly seizing power and repressing pro-democracy protesters, and be exiled to Panama, if they stepped down and allowed Aristide to return.

However, WI Cedras and his cronies refused this deal ? How much of a challenge would the 82nd, backed up by other substantial forces like the 10th Mtn, elements of XVIII Airborne Corps, 3rd and 7th SFGs, 2nd Marine Div, and an entire carrier battlegroup, have faced in storming into Port-au-Prince and Haiti's other major cities, and taken out the Haitian armed forces and their FRAPH armed thug supporters ? Would the US armed forces have trounced the far inferior Haitian armed forces and restored Aristide in a much easier fashion than had been the case in Grenada for URGENT FURY and Panama with JUST CAUSE ? What would've been the impact of a successful Op RESTORE DEMOCRACY which had been forcibly opposed ? Would Clinton now say that the "Mogadishu syndrome" had been kicked, much like Bush snr had said the same thing re the "VN syndrome", so that the US, emoboldened by success, could've gone on to undertake more military interventions in other places like the Balkans, Burma (against the opium-manufacturing SLORC junta who also crushed pro-democracy Aung San Suu Kyi-supporting demonstrators back in 1988), or back into Africa ?

Also, what about Cedras & co- in this ATL of refusing an amnesty for their despicable atrocities, would the prospects for bringing them to justice actually have improved ? How would they have been made accountable for their crimes- a domestic US court trial for crimes against humanity, US court martial proceedings (along similar lines as what was planned to try Mohammed Farah Aideed had Op GOTHIC SERPENT nabbed him in Somalia), an international criminal tribunal or a domestic Haitian judicial process ? Or would a lynch mob have got them and meted out the same summary justice as had been the case with TON TON MACOUTE agents who didn't flee Haiti after Baby Doc Duvalier's departure in 1986 ?
 
I read in "The Immaculate Invasion" that the dictator's guys didn't resist, but continued running roughshod over the populace for some time while the US troops were in-country. Right in front of US soldiers in some cases.

The hammer falling on Cedras and Co. would certainly have forestalled that, but "a short victorious war" (as would likely be the case...Haiti's army was only good for repressing civilians en masse and sometimes even had problems with that) would also be unpleasant for everyone involved. I guess it depends how short the operation would be.
 
Yeah that's true, Matt, I've read accounts that the Haitian armed forces and FRAPH security thugs did continue beating the crap out of civilians in the street even when the US troops of the MNF were incountry, and American soldiers and Marines were initially bound by restrictive ROE which allowed them to use lethal force against pro-junta elements only in self-defence, so there were incidents in the 1st few wks of RESTORE DEMOCRACY where GIs had to stand by. However, due to negative media coverage, Clinton reversed this position and the ROE were revised to allow US forces to pre-emptively use force to halt ongoing human rights abuses and disarm the pro-junta armed elements, and there followed Marines, 10th Mtn troops and MPs, and SF operators used force to achieve these purposes (although belatedly so).
 
Top