East Germany Survives the Cold War

I've been spending the last several weeks trying to come up with a scenario that allows the GDR to outlive the fall of communism(and the fall of the Soviet Union) in 1989. I think it would take a lot of breaks for this to happen, and the sheer pressure for unity with their Western breathren without the USSR holding them hostage to fraternal socialist unity would probably trump everything I've written here.

First off, lets have Brezhnev die earlier, let's say in 1981. Next, pass Chernyenko and Andropov and go directly to Gorbachev. Like Brezhnev, Honecker dies soon after in 1982. With the chance, Gorbachev decides to make the GDR a laboratory for his reforms. He appoints a reform minded communist (Hans Modrow?) to run East Germany.

With the GDR in debt, the new leadership embarks on an East German version of Perestroika which western journalists dub "Ostpolitik on Steroids".

The key elements of the new plan:
-GDR agrees to open borders to West Germans who wish to visit their friends and family in the East. They charge a 'tourism fee' of 50 DM per person in order to build up hard currency reserves.
-GDR lets hundreds of political dissidents emigrate to the West.
-In exchange for the opening of the borders, the West Germans agree to offer incentives to Western companies to build factories and supply jobs in the East.
-Stasi's domestic operations is massively downsized, as part of the leadership's "Socialism with a Human Soul" program. The money saved is put into economic development programs as part of it's "GDR for the 21st Century Program"

Admittedly can't think of much else, any further suggestions?
 
"The key elements of the new plan:
-GDR agrees to open borders to West Germans who wish to visit their friends and family in the East. They charge a 'tourism fee' of 50 DM per person in order to build up hard currency reserves."

They did ecactly this in the 70s, easing the visit regulations for families, with the influx of hard cash in mind.

"-GDR lets hundreds of political dissidents emigrate to the West."

they DID exactly this. Some were bought out of the prisons by West Germany, others, like several singers, poets, and actors with the ability to go abroad lost their citizenships while in the west


"-In exchange for the opening of the borders, the West Germans agree to offer incentives to Western companies to build factories and supply jobs in the East."

Guess what? In order to stabilize the eastern economy, Bavarian state chief minister Franz-Josef Strauss organized huge loans for the GDR, which was quite surprising as he was the biggest anti-communist fire eater in west germany.

"-Stasi's domestic operations is massively downsized, as part of the leadership's "Socialism with a Human Soul" program. The money saved is put into economic development programs as part of it's "GDR for the 21st Century Program""

1. economically, only the ASBs can save the GDR. They knew from the late 70s on that they are on the road to nowhere.

2. The chance for the GDR is in west germany.

best chance: leftist Social Democrats and greens are in power and do everything to help their socialist buddies in the east.

I`ll scetch out a timeline later.

Greets,

Steffen
 
Problems of Reunification

Unless Soviet control over Eastern Europe can be progressively released, rather than suddenly let go, as happened in 1989, I see little hope for either the GDR or the FRG. Reunification was always high on the German agenda and without the de facto partition of Europe in 1945, I suspect Germany would have remained united.

I've always read that the East German population wanted reunification simply because of the economic disparity with the FRG and the hope that, in a united Germany, some of that wealth would head east. There were also thousands of families separated by the border, as there are still in Korea.

That's not to say everyone was enthausiastic about German reunification in 1990. Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterrand weren't keen but George Bush was fairly ambivalent as I remember. I don't see any way Britain and France could have persuaded Kohl or any other West German Government NOT to push for immediate reunification.

Kohl gained hugely politically from reunification but if the Americans had joined the doubters, could we have seen a slightly different and slower process ? Open borders, of course but instead of full and immediate reunification, the East Germans are told that they can govern themselves for a period.

In March 1990, the East German Christian Democrats win a landslide victory but face insurmountable economic problems despite the financial assistance of West Germany. The transition from a Marxist command economy to a liberal capitalist system is painful with massive unemployment.

This reverberates through West Germany and in 1991 Kohl loses the Bundestag election to an SPD/Green Coalition under Oskar Lafontaine. Taxes are raised across West Germany to pump prine the Eastern economy while a massive environmental clean-up begins. In 1993, the East German PDS wins the elections and tries to keep elements of the former socialist welfare system desopite crippling levels of unemployment. The economic black hole that is East Germany has wrecked West Germany's economy too and the whole of Europe is experiencing an economic slowdown.
 
Floculenccio,

I had the notion of the rest of Europe forcibly putting down German reunification (out of fear of "German militarism" or fear of economic competition or whatever), but I think the US would probably oppose such a thing (and who is the backbone of NATO?).

Of course, Kohl did accidentally cause a major outcry by criticizing the Polish-German border, and had to backtrack and forever renounce German nukes; WI he refused to back down and "UN Peacekeepers" get sent in?

Where's Pascal when you need him? He's got lots of opinions on Germany.
 
Matt Quinn said:
Floculenccio,

I had the notion of the rest of Europe forcibly putting down German reunification (out of fear of "German militarism" or fear of economic competition or whatever), but I think the US would probably oppose such a thing (and who is the backbone of NATO?).

Ah, but here's an interesting idea- maybe this is the catalyst that ends the special relationship between the US and Western Europe. After all, Communism is crumbling and the European members of NATO might take the chance to move into the liberated markets of Eastern Europe. The '90's might see the very distinct polarisation of Europe and the US. Even if Germany reunites- which it probably would, a few years later, the first wedge has been driven between the US and Western Europe.

Some say that the War on Terror is doing this even now. Perhaps here we have a POD to start a new Cold War between the US and Europe.
 

Susano

Banned
Well, i have lots of opinions.. facts are something else!
And Im busy remmebering the boards up again! :D

Now, the proposd PoD sems to be that the GDR embraces Glasnost and Perestroika. However, that of course could only come with a complete opening of the border. Perestroika and imprisoning the population is... contradicting each other.
However, this means in the long run, the GDR would simply have run out of population, especially the young population. By 2000 or 2010, GDR government would have to APPLY for reunification, I think.
Now, of course the GDR eadership knew so, and refused Perestroika. But its not farfecthed to imagine an even more stupid and inefficient GDR leadership, so lets go with this.
In this 10-20 years meantime, however, geopolitics would be significantly different. Europe would see the GDR decaying, and especially Thathcer would have loved to prop it up - however, without young and productive population, all the money of the world is futile. In short, Europe would see the trend of an upcoming reunifcation, and would not like it!
To counter this, germany surely would have been a lot more america-friendly. Now, if everything stays the same as IOTL, there might be some thousand german soldiers, a symbolic force like the italian or japanese soldiers, in Iraq by now.
Also, there would be no eastward expansion of the EU without East Germany. West Germany surely would have refused to let them in as seperate member. And when reunfication comes, the financial problems will even be larger for germany... not good for the euro, either, and probably knocking germany out of international afeirs completly for some time. In a waym it is already like this atm, and this trend would be far worse then.

Of course, I thought about this subject as well, but what I had in mind would be ASBish: What if oil, or other ressoruces are discobered in the GRD in the 80s? Late enough to push the GDR over the 1990 limit, and early enough to still use them for this... but yeah, ressource replacement is ASB territory :D
 
the Cold War end early

Just a suggestion: what if the Cold War ends earlier so that the
memories of the Nazi are still fresh in the West. Then the
reunification might run into more serious opposition from UK and
especially Framce.

We need an earlier PoD, say a disastrous USSR-China war that
would bankrupt the Soviet Union 15 yrs earlier.
 
valio_98 said:
We need an earlier PoD, say a disastrous USSR-China war that
would bankrupt the Soviet Union 15 yrs earlier.


If we transfer the 1989 situation just 15 years ahead, with a breakdown of the soviet union and the communist order, the changes would not be so big.

The economically shorter gap between the GDR and the Federal Republic will be compensated with a stronger political will to the reunifaction, as the greens haven´t turned up and the social democrats have not experienced the influx of all the "loony left" 68-long-haired - hippie-student-turned-teacher- guys.

-With the Vietnam war coming to the sad end, a reunification would gain the US president some bonus points in the "roll-back" category.

- With the fall or weakening of the Soviet Union after the sino-soviet war, the americans will look for some kind of political/economical bulwark to counter the french bid for supremacy on the continent (I don´t see a military dimension on this, that time is over)


Domestic considerations in germany:

- constitution asks for reunification, the social democrats got their face rubbed in it in 1973 by the supreme court

- With the expellees organizations in Germany still powerful, the debate about the East Treaties with Poland and the CSSR and the eastern Zone will look harmless compared with what popular oppinion + the opposition and their OWN party base will do to the Schmidt-Genscher government if they try to stall a reunification.
 
Another idea is that the GDR simply remains as a democratic seperate country beyond the collapse of communism. Apparently, a lot of people question the wisdom and nature of the hurried runification that followed and would have preffered either a more carefully thought-out reunification or even no reunification at all. A non-communist GDR could have been a viable alternative - wasn't the GDR area actually the region once known as Prussia at one time anyway?
 
poster342002 said:
Another idea is that the GDR simply remains as a democratic seperate country beyond the collapse of communism. Apparently, a lot of people question the wisdom and nature of the hurried runification that followed and would have preffered either a more carefully thought-out reunification or even no reunification at all. A non-communist GDR could have been a viable alternative - wasn't the GDR area actually the region once known as Prussia at one time anyway?

No, it is something else then Prussia. No, it consists also the former (non-prussian) states (the are reestablished) of Anhalt, mecklenburg, mecklenburg-schwerin, saxony and thuringia

The prussian part consists of parts of Pommern, the province Brandenburg without ´Berlin and the province saxony. (yes, there are two of them)

"Another idea is that the GDR simply remains as a democratic seperate country beyond the collapse of communism. Apparently, a lot of people question the wisdom and nature of the hurried runification that followed and would have preffered either a more carefully thought-out reunification or even no reunification at all"

That´s just as simple as saying: "why hasn´t Hitler ordered a invasion of britain."

The economy
The GDR was not able to substain her level financially, as their spending greatly outperfomed the income, they were BANCRUPT as a state can be

Their export market desintegrated together with the whole communist block COMECON trade system.

they would have had to rebuild their society and state from scrap, as no one with experience was at hand who wasn´t tainted with the oppressive old regime.

The elites

Look at the "civil rights activists" who had their 15 minutes of fame during the round tables where quite incapable of ruling a country: protestant ministers, artists, writers, "dreaming dreams about socialism with a human attitude" .

That they had no appeal to the masses was clearly shown by first and only free elections in the GDR: the people voted for the "established parties from the west:

Results, March 18th. GDR Elections

CDU: 40,8 %, 163 Mandate (christian democratic union, collaborating party in the GDR for 40 years)

SPD: 21,9 %, 88 Mandate (newly founded in the GDR after having been amalgameted with the old Kommunist party in the socialist party SED)

PDS: 16,4 %, 66 Mandate (The old state party SED under a new name)

DSU: 6,3 % 25 Mandate (A new party, amalgameted into the CDU later)

Liberale: 5,3 %, 21 Mandate (liberal group of parties)

Bündnis 90: 2,9 %, 12 Mandate (the classic civil rights movement)
----------------------------------------------------------------

The rest is so obscure I really don´t remember the names.

DBD: 2,2 %, 9 Mandate

Grüne/UFV: 2,0 %, 8 Mandate

DA: 0,9 %, 4 Mandate

NDPD: 0,4 %, 2 Mandate

DFD: 0,3 %, 1 Mandat

AVL: 0,2 %, 1 Mandat

Rest: 0,4 %, 0 Mandate

last point: the dempgraphics:

Middle Germany experienced a massive drain of it´s well-educated, productive parts of population since 1945. This is way the commies built their Wall. After the opening of the wall, the GDR would literally have been emptied.

And the FRG could not refuse them, as they are (west) german citizens as they are ethnical germans.

And while the Kohl government did some serious mistakes, like ordering wage conditions much higher than the economical productivity and some blunders more I really don´t see an alternative to it.

Greets

Steffen
 
Steffen,

You make some interesting points, there.

You assert that East Germany could not feasibly have survived beyond the fall of communism. Surely most of the reasons you list also applied to the other eastern-bloc countries - some of which were in an even worse state than the GDR?

Take Romania or Bulgraia, for example. Both had been ruled by infinitely worse and more repressive stalinist regimes than GDR and their economies were in an even worse shape than the GDR. Neither of these countries had the option of merging with a western neighbour and thus continued to exist as independant non-communist countires ever since.
 
poster342002 said:
Steffen,

You make some interesting points, there.

You assert that East Germany could not feasibly have survived beyond the fall of communism. Surely most of the reasons you list also applied to the other eastern-bloc countries - some of which were in an even worse state than the GDR?

Take Romania or Bulgraia, for example. Both had been ruled by infinitely worse and more repressive stalinist regimes than GDR and their economies were in an even worse shape than the GDR. Neither of these countries had the option of merging with a western neighbour and thus continued to exist as independant non-communist countires ever since.


Poland, Hungary, the two states in the CSSR were nations, with a national identity applying only to them, while the GDR was just the other half of Germany, with a highly artificial identity if they had one.

Western Germany set always the standard on which even the socialist leaders orientated themselves.

Wide into the 70s, the GDR tried to be acknowledged internationally as
a german state.
Even they didn´t think they could scrap together enough legitimacy to call themselves THE german state, what westgermany was able to maintain until the 70s (Hallstein-Doctrin).

Even after 40 years of existence, to most people they were nothing more than

a) some russian occupied provinces
b the small, unsuccessful, evil little brother of west germany
 
The idea of the Warsaw Pact extending to the Rhine gives people the shivers. Well, for a few months it happened OTL. When Communism fell and Germany re-united, the new single Germany was by law in theory both in NATO and in the Warsaw Pact. Soon after that, the Warsaw Pact had its last meeting and disbanded itself.
 
"When Communism fell and Germany re-united, the new single Germany was by law in theory both in NATO and in the Warsaw Pact"

That scenario there, had it lasted longer, would probably nix the fears of various people (French, Poles, some Jews, etc) of a revival of German militarism. Should Germany do ANYTHING at all, both alliances would be legally obligated to pounce. Perhaps Kohl never renounces German nuclear weapons and any claims to the ethnically-cleansed eastern lands?
 
Matt Quinn said:
"When Communism fell and Germany re-united, the new single Germany was by law in theory both in NATO and in the Warsaw Pact"

That scenario there, had it lasted longer, would probably nix the fears of various people (French, Poles, some Jews, etc) of a revival of German militarism. Should Germany do ANYTHING at all, both alliances would be legally obligated to pounce. Perhaps Kohl never renounces German nuclear weapons and any claims to the ethnically-cleansed eastern lands?

The 70s treaties under *&§&! Brandt already guaranteed the the frontiers of Poland, CSSR etc , if I´m not completely mistaken

and although Franz-Josef Strauss talked about german nuclear armament in the 50s, it was out of the question esp. with the greens and greenpeace making everybody hysterical about atomic devices.
 

Susano

Banned
I take it you are no social democrat, steffen? :D
(Of course my opinion of East Treaties are similarily low, to say it politely. However, I think brandt was a good chancellor overall)

Yes, german nuclear devices are quite unrealistic for various reasons. A new german militarism at all is and was greaty unlikely (yeah. militarism. we should fix that patriotism thing first). However, if Europe sees this is another question entirely.
However I cant think of any scenario where Germany (with election campaign rhethoric or whatever) could scare Europe during the time of reunification...
 
Susano said:
I take it you are no social democrat, steffen? :D
(Of course my opinion of East Treaties are similarily low, to say it politely. However, I think brandt was a good chancellor overall)

Yes, german nuclear devices are quite unrealistic for various reasons. A new german militarism at all is and was greaty unlikely (yeah. militarism. we should fix that patriotism thing first). However, if Europe sees this is another question entirely.
However I cant think of any scenario where Germany (with election campaign rhethoric or whatever) could scare Europe during the time of reunification...
How did you guess? You are right, christian democrat "steel helmet" fraction by heart. :)

If we get good ol´franz josef strauss to live to 1990, we could get some irritations in western europe with leftist media puroposefully misunderstanding him and Jockel Fischer, Cohn-Bandit & Jutta von Dithfurth running berserk with warnings about "new militarism".

Some overshooting of "peace activism" leading to kinds of confusion is the only option I see as germany did not have any revisionist politician with a seat in a parliament besides that waco Schönhuber, the expellees can´t move without weelchairs anymore.

Greets,
Steffen
 

Susano

Banned
Because so many people pa attention to the Greens....? ;) :D
Of course I know what you mean, but you had to pick the most green and leftiest of them all (besides fischer. sometimes I wonder if he himself knows anymore where he stands).
And I will ignore that partisan comment about the leftist media ;)

Well Strauß would have been quite old at this time already. He surely would not have been an active politican, so his remarks simply could not have stirred up so many things, IMO.
Hmpf. Bavaria and Saxony are toroughly black, so anti-czech comments to get votes is no possibility either, as the elections there are simply... too one-sided, lol. f coruse, Czechia would have been the easiest target in an election campaign, because of the Benes Decrets and Temelin...
Hm. What about Möllemann? His comments were popularist in nature, and he rode on a haider-created european wave of popuralism, but at least it shows that he was willing and capable to use such things. What if he had done so during the reunification process already? I mean, the FDP fighting for parliamentary survival is nothing new either! :D
 
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