Question for debate--butterfly effect on nature

NHBL · Jun 17, 2004

I was wondering how much poeple think the butterfly effect will influence the weather, and how soon. At the extremes, a nuclear war will drasticly affect the weather within hours, while a conversation taking a different path won't have any noticeable influence on the next day's weather.
For example, if the Great War is taking a different path from August, 1914, should I stick with strictly historical weather patterns in 1915? In 1929?
Obviously, differing industrial devlpment has potential for changes if its drastic enough.

tom · Jun 17, 2004

I understand computer modeling of weather (where we learned about the butterfly effect in the first place) gives time scales on the order of months, maybe a year at most, for such divergences.

NHBL · Jun 17, 2004

What amount of divergence to change the weather?

What sort of divergence are we talking about to get changes in a matter of months to a year? Different battles, whole different industrial paterns, or what.
In one project, the Great War starts on schedule, but diverges significantly. Wouuld the weather be as hitorical by January of 1915?

aktarian · Jun 17, 2004

It also varies in scope. Massive battle in one are might change climate in said area but not wider. e.g. using defoliants will destroy/afect forests in certain region (say Ardennes) but this woun't affect climate in Sicilia. Of course with nature being connected ripple effects can't be ruled out (deforestations affects rivers which affect area at further down the river flow which again affects that are and so on).

Grey Wolf · Jun 17, 2004

NHBL said:
I was wondering how much poeple think the butterfly effect will influence the weather, and how soon. At the extremes, a nuclear war will drasticly affect the weather within hours, while a conversation taking a different path won't have any noticeable influence on the next day's weather.
For example, if the Great War is taking a different path from August, 1914, should I stick with strictly historical weather patterns in 1915? In 1929?
Obviously, differing industrial devlpment has potential for changes if its drastic enough.

Given that clouds and rain can be affected by particle matter, massive bombardments taking place on a different date would in my opinion alter the weather from thereon.

Of course you could say that as weather, especially sudden and surprising storms are uknown beforehand, they like earthquakes could be removed to get rid of the element of OTL-determinism

Grey Wolf

Tyr · Jun 17, 2004

What do you mean how will the butterfly effect affect weather? Everyday weather is not important or are you on about big events?
I think human activity has been proved to affect the weather in different ways so the weather will butterfly once different things happen.

DuQuense · Jun 17, 2004

Given that the Butterfly Effect Come from the idea, that a Butterfly fluttering around in China, determines where a Atlantic Hurricane hits 2 years later....

DominusNovus · Jun 17, 2004

This is one of those questions I meant to ask when the board crashed.

The weather is pretty easy to change in AH. What about other natural events? Could a strictly human POD change earthquakes and volcanos? Asteroid and the like? For example, if we have Remus found Roma (er, Rema) instead of Romulus, in 753 BC, is Vesuvius gonna blow on schedule in AD 79?

Chris B · Jun 17, 2004

DominusNovus said:
This is one of those questions I meant to ask when the board crashed.

The weather is pretty easy to change in AH. What about other natural events? Could a strictly human POD change earthquakes and volcanos? Asteroid and the like? For example, if we have Remus found Roma (er, Rema) instead of Romulus, in 753 BC, is Vesuvius gonna blow on schedule in AD 79?

I don't think human activity would have any impact on earthquakes or volcanos. The event should still occur but would have more or less impact based on changes in location of cities, etc.

Even accepting that human activity causes climate/weather change, the earlier in history you go, the lower population and technology levels whould mean less impact from any changes.

There's a significant variation from time period to time period in weather (drought to flood from one year to the next) which makes me doubt that a discrete event (a battle) not directed towards changing weather patterns would have a lasting impact. There's a pretty strong drive to continuity in most natural systems.

I think a weather related POD is plausible (like WI the 'divine wind' never blows for Japan) but once in an ATL tweaking weather feels like loading the dice, unless there are large scale changes in human activity.

Archangel Michael · Jun 17, 2004

DominusNovus said:
This is one of those questions I meant to ask when the board crashed.

The weather is pretty easy to change in AH. What about other natural events? Could a strictly human POD change earthquakes and volcanos? Asteroid and the like? For example, if we have Remus found Roma (er, Rema) instead of Romulus, in 753 BC, is Vesuvius gonna blow on schedule in AD 79?

Over a while, maybe. Maybe as mining patterns change, teotonic activity is most likely changed.

NHBL · Jun 17, 2004

Seems like minor changes could be fairly quick

With the way particulate matter influences rainfall, changes in battles and industry caused by a different Great War starting with an August 1914 POD could render day to day weather different by the end of the year. Do people agee with this?
It makes things much easier if I don't have to try and find historical weather records.
Long term climate changes, however, I don't anticipate being changd by 1914 wars.

Linkwerk · Jun 18, 2004

hehehe, I think you're just checking if different jutland weather is plausible, you battleship nut, you...

aktarian · Jun 18, 2004

Chris B said:
I don't think human activity would have any impact on earthquakes or volcanos.

Try detonating nuke or three on some fault line......

tom · Jun 18, 2004

Even asteroid orbits are chaotic, although it is on a timescale of millions of years (except Hyperion's rotation, which is a matter of weeks to months, depending on how tiny the perturbation is).
The doubling time for weather alterations (not climate) is around a week or less. After a year (say 60 doublings) you are talking about a factor of a quintillion. Even if my memory is off by a factor of two, that is still a factor of a billion.

Tyr · Jun 18, 2004

I doubt actions on Earth would affect the orbits of asteroids and other bodies enough for them to cause changes.
I suppose for some earthquakes and stuff there is a 50% chance of them happening or not, you could take a active looking volcano and have it suddenly errupt in the past just by chance.
Humans can't directly influence tectonic movements I don't think though, with anything short of nuclear war anyway.

NHBL · Jun 18, 2004

No Skagerrak

Linkwerk said:
hehehe, I think you're just checking if different jutland weather is plausible, you battleship nut, you...

I am a battleship nut, and do indeed have a naval A/H motive here, but the historical Jutland (or Skagerrak) will not happen--the Great War in the A/H I've been working on is over by fall of 1915, and does have some major naval battles. The butterfly effect means I don't have to rely on OTL's historical weather, thank goodness for the lightened research!

Doctor What · Jun 18, 2004

DuQuense said:
Given that the Butterfly Effect Come from the idea, that a Butterfly fluttering around in China, determines where a Atlantic Hurricane hits 2 years later....

Then clearly we have a moral obligation and duty to find that damn butterfly and kill it....

DuQuense · Jun 19, 2004

TL 1-The BF veres left and flutters away.
TL 2- The BF veres rite, a Sparrow sees it and chases, a Hawk sees the Sparrow, stoops at 200 mph, grabs the Sparrow, and snaps it's wing open, causing a tiny Vortex in the air.

Then clearly we have a moral obligation and duty to find that damn butterfly and kill it....

TL 3 Dr. What gets in his time machine and kills the BF.

one hr later

TL 1- Its a normal day
TL 2- the Vortex caused by the Hawks downdraft, has grown in the heat into a spin billy, a small low pressure area.
TL 3 - It appears to be a normal day.

two years later

TL 1- a blocking High over the Great Lakes & North Canada stears the Hurricane into South Carolina causeing 50 millions $$ in Damage.
TL 2- a Large Low pressure area in the Gulf pulls the Hurricane across Florida, and then into Lousiana, causing 200 millions $$$ in damage
TL 3- without a Blocking high in Canada, or a pulling low in the gulf the Hurricane hits NY City, flooding lower Manhattan and devistating Long Island, New Jersey, & Conniticutt. Damages 900 millions $$$$$

Grey Wolf · Jun 19, 2004

What I meant about earthquakes is that this is Determinism - its like writing alternate history but always having the Great Depression. Nobody knew an earthquake was going to hit Tokyo, wreck the hull of the Amagi (I think) etc. If there had been no Washington Treaty, or if there had been warlike tension between the USA and the Japanese Empire the earthquake would have been even more significant in its impact. But to build it into a timeline when in essence it hit as a random surprise, simply builds in an artificial barrier IMHO. Its like sticking to the historical death dates of people - a lot of these had no idea they were going to pop off suddenly, e.g. Lloyd George in the middle of the Second World War and are still involved in intrigues and anglings for position that MIGHT come to something in an ATL, but if you kill them off 'just because' you are simply adopting a Deterministic position

Grey Wolf

tom · Jun 19, 2004

Altered high and low pressure areas might change earthquakes and volcanic eruptions millennia later. Over a billion years or so, even weather changes on Earth might affect its gravitational field by a part per billion and so, if you go back to the Cambrian, 500 megayears later a 10km asteroid passes a few hundred kilometers over North America and later puts a new crater on the lunar farside, instead of hitting the Yucatan.