While the Crusades had enormous significance for the European middle ages, nobody alive at the time of the first crusade had any way of knowing they would. So, what would the consequences be if the First Crusade is wiped out by Kerbogha under the walls of Antioch, or even better, by a Fatimid army on the plains below Jerusalem?
The first thing I'd expect would be a bit of demonstrative beating of breasts followed by audible mutterings of "Serves the idiots right... harebrained scheme, that..." from nobles who stayed at home. How much face would the papacy lose over this? Could it kill the whole 'divine war' idea in the cradle, as it were? Or is this already too late a POD? I'm envisioning a more hard-nosed realpolitik increasingly marginalising the popes once it turns out that their great call to arms led to unmitigated disaster (without the first crusade showing it could be done I doubt there would be more to follow up the success)
The first thing I'd expect would be a bit of demonstrative beating of breasts followed by audible mutterings of "Serves the idiots right... harebrained scheme, that..." from nobles who stayed at home. How much face would the papacy lose over this? Could it kill the whole 'divine war' idea in the cradle, as it were? Or is this already too late a POD? I'm envisioning a more hard-nosed realpolitik increasingly marginalising the popes once it turns out that their great call to arms led to unmitigated disaster (without the first crusade showing it could be done I doubt there would be more to follow up the success)