Admiral Matt
Gone Fishin'
Mussolini only declared war on France because he was certain that the war was already over. Paris had fallen, and he expected the British to accept peace as soon as the French did. This turned out to be a fairly large mistake, to put it lightly. So what might have happened if Mussolini had gotten a better perception of British determination?
Well, I see two possible paths here. The obvious one (it's been done) would be for Italy to remain a friendly neutral as the Germans go off on their ever-so-Freudian world conquering spree. This is a lot more usefull than their "supporting" campaigns of OTL. The biggest factor is probably oil. With Italy neutral, they can still ship it in and sell it to the Germans.
Mussolini still tries to invade Greece and still gets clobbered, but with luck might make it out with a nominal victory. Italian Albania extends a few extra meters up the side of a mountain somewhere. The Glory of Rome is restored!
Italian "volunteers" will probably support Barbarossa whenever it happens. Some German war industries might be moved to Italy to avoid bombing in the later years of the war, followed by refugees and war criminals. Italy probably comes out of the war as a major power, though disliked by everyone else.
I have a problem with Italy remaining neutral that long, but whatever.
The second possibility is rather different. If Italy had refused to declare war on the allies, they might have found themselves at war with the Germans instead. Hitler would be furious at such a betrayal, and would be quite willing to make the Italians a supporting ally, whether they liked it or not. This is certainly not without precedent - see, for example, Yugoslavia and Romania.
The Italians might have a slim chance of holding the Germans at the Alps, but I doubt it would happen. The German attack would come as a surprise and it would be more a matter of luck than anything else for them to be defending the right place with enough strength. The Italians would probably fight much better against the Germans than against anyone they fought in OTL - defending your country against Nazi invasion is a rather more inspiring cause than trying to steal mountains from the Greeks and sand from the British.
They will still lose, of course. Italy would probably last longer than the French did, partly because it's geographically better suited to defense, and partly because Mussolini can't give up for fear of being strung up. When Rome falls, the Italian military and government (such as they are) will be safely ensconced in Sicily, along with British support. The Germans make one big attack on Sicily, lose a huge amount of paratroopers, and give up. Italy (read: Mussolini, the islands and the colonies) never surrenders.
I'm not sure how this would affect Barbarossa and all that. The allies still win, of course (the odds were vastly in their favor). The invasion of central Italy from Sardinia at some later date would be more doable than in OTL, given the extra time to provide necessary infrastructure. Italy is probably rolled up six months to a year earlier than in OTL.
The aftermath of the war would be really interesting. The Italians keep all their colonies in Africa, Albania, and the Adriatic coast South to Fiume. Most, perhaps all, of Austria falls within the Italian occupation zone. Italy would form a third side to the Cold War, as they couldn't fit comfortably within either American or Soviet spheres. Of the victorious powers, Italy is one of only two monarchies, and the only one whose leadership does not approve of even the theory of self-determination and democratic government. I would expect them to form ties with the fascists in Spain and Portugal. The French might even go fascist at some point (Wasn't there some sort of coup attempted by French generals in the 50s or 60s?). Combined with their puppet fascists in Austria, we end up with some kind of right-wing Latin alliance.
Italy definately becomes a nuclear power in this TL. Whether they remain dirt-poor or not depends on Benito's willingness to accept Marshall Plan aid. Hmm... He might yet be able to do himself in if he tried refusing it.
With Africa still divided between countries in opposing power blocs, I suspect independence movements will be greatly slowed. The Italian and Iberian colonies might very well last into the present day.
Will Italy have a permanent seat on the UN security council? I think so, but I'm not sure whose seat they would take - either that of France or China. Either way, it would cause trouble. Maybe there would be a 6 or 7-member council to deal with this? If it was seven, who would the seventh member be?
Any ideas? Comments welcome. Critics will be derided and mocked (just kidding).
Well, I see two possible paths here. The obvious one (it's been done) would be for Italy to remain a friendly neutral as the Germans go off on their ever-so-Freudian world conquering spree. This is a lot more usefull than their "supporting" campaigns of OTL. The biggest factor is probably oil. With Italy neutral, they can still ship it in and sell it to the Germans.
Mussolini still tries to invade Greece and still gets clobbered, but with luck might make it out with a nominal victory. Italian Albania extends a few extra meters up the side of a mountain somewhere. The Glory of Rome is restored!
Italian "volunteers" will probably support Barbarossa whenever it happens. Some German war industries might be moved to Italy to avoid bombing in the later years of the war, followed by refugees and war criminals. Italy probably comes out of the war as a major power, though disliked by everyone else.
I have a problem with Italy remaining neutral that long, but whatever.
The second possibility is rather different. If Italy had refused to declare war on the allies, they might have found themselves at war with the Germans instead. Hitler would be furious at such a betrayal, and would be quite willing to make the Italians a supporting ally, whether they liked it or not. This is certainly not without precedent - see, for example, Yugoslavia and Romania.
The Italians might have a slim chance of holding the Germans at the Alps, but I doubt it would happen. The German attack would come as a surprise and it would be more a matter of luck than anything else for them to be defending the right place with enough strength. The Italians would probably fight much better against the Germans than against anyone they fought in OTL - defending your country against Nazi invasion is a rather more inspiring cause than trying to steal mountains from the Greeks and sand from the British.
They will still lose, of course. Italy would probably last longer than the French did, partly because it's geographically better suited to defense, and partly because Mussolini can't give up for fear of being strung up. When Rome falls, the Italian military and government (such as they are) will be safely ensconced in Sicily, along with British support. The Germans make one big attack on Sicily, lose a huge amount of paratroopers, and give up. Italy (read: Mussolini, the islands and the colonies) never surrenders.
I'm not sure how this would affect Barbarossa and all that. The allies still win, of course (the odds were vastly in their favor). The invasion of central Italy from Sardinia at some later date would be more doable than in OTL, given the extra time to provide necessary infrastructure. Italy is probably rolled up six months to a year earlier than in OTL.
The aftermath of the war would be really interesting. The Italians keep all their colonies in Africa, Albania, and the Adriatic coast South to Fiume. Most, perhaps all, of Austria falls within the Italian occupation zone. Italy would form a third side to the Cold War, as they couldn't fit comfortably within either American or Soviet spheres. Of the victorious powers, Italy is one of only two monarchies, and the only one whose leadership does not approve of even the theory of self-determination and democratic government. I would expect them to form ties with the fascists in Spain and Portugal. The French might even go fascist at some point (Wasn't there some sort of coup attempted by French generals in the 50s or 60s?). Combined with their puppet fascists in Austria, we end up with some kind of right-wing Latin alliance.
Italy definately becomes a nuclear power in this TL. Whether they remain dirt-poor or not depends on Benito's willingness to accept Marshall Plan aid. Hmm... He might yet be able to do himself in if he tried refusing it.
With Africa still divided between countries in opposing power blocs, I suspect independence movements will be greatly slowed. The Italian and Iberian colonies might very well last into the present day.
Will Italy have a permanent seat on the UN security council? I think so, but I'm not sure whose seat they would take - either that of France or China. Either way, it would cause trouble. Maybe there would be a 6 or 7-member council to deal with this? If it was seven, who would the seventh member be?
Any ideas? Comments welcome. Critics will be derided and mocked (just kidding).