Bin Laden Retires, 1990

According to part of an episode of 60 Minutes I watched, Bin Laden was actually seriously contemplating retiring from the terror business in the late 1980's, as the Soviets pulled out of Afganistan. He was talked out of this by Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the brains of the organization, and was convinced to go after the Americans.

So, suppose Al-Zawahiri fails to convince Osama, and he retires to a nice place in Riyadh, leaving Al-Zawahiri to create Al-Qaeda. What happens now?

OBL then remains an obscure nonentity whom very few ppl except those concerned with the secret war in Afghanistan, have ever heard of, instead of the AQ mastermind whom he is now ?

If we're lucky, if Osama retired, he would probably just become another wealthy hanger-on of the House of Saud who occassionally donates a few of his vast riches to any number of terrorist organizations.

While Al-Qaeda will still have al-Zawahiri's planning and ideas, money will become more of a problem. I can't really see how this will affect the organization. Maybe smaller and more mid-east based?

If al-Zawahari really is the brains behind al Qaeda then I suspect he would just find another money man.

Maybe make the POD where al-Zawahari is killed by the Soviets shortly before they withdrawal. Bin Laden retires with his vast fortune, and occaisonally donates part of it to terror groups based in Palestine.

There are smaller cells of terror groups that are more middle east based, more reknowned for their kidnapping of western tourists, and occaisonal murder sprees of Christian and Jewish minorities in their countries.

I think al-Zawahari is the operational guy, while bin Laden is the spiritual leader and "front man."