A question for the Ottoman experts

In the event of a Central Powers victory in mid 1915, what would the Ottoman Empire try to get at the peace table? The decisive battles occurred in France--France has been smashed, and the Royal Navy and High Seas Fleets are both in shambles, but the Royal Navy will rebuild far faster once the final peace treaty is signed. The Galipolli invasion has been driven off. Everything else is somewhat close to historical.
 

Xen

Banned
Hmmm lets see, the Young Turks wanted to rebuild the Empire expanding east encompassing all the Turkish speaking people of central Asia. Cyprus is another possibility as is Kuwait and all of Arabia. Though holding Arab land seems to me to be more damaging to the Ottomans than just letting them go on their merry way and uniting the Turkish speaking people. That would be a huge Empire. Though I dont know how long it could last, maybe a few years, maybe a few centuries.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
NHBL said:
In the event of a Central Powers victory in mid 1915, what would the Ottoman Empire try to get at the peace table? The decisive battles occurred in France--France has been smashed, and the Royal Navy and High Seas Fleets are both in shambles, but the Royal Navy will rebuild far faster once the final peace treaty is signed. The Galipolli invasion has been driven off. Everything else is somewhat close to historical.

Pan-Turkicism is definitely a go here, as your 'everything else is similar' means that the Russian Empire has collapsed. OTL the Ottoman Empire entered Baku as part of its laying claim to Azerbaijan, and Enver ended up leading the native revolt for independence in Turkestan later.

A victorious Ottoman Empire would indeed look to reassert lost influence - over Cyprus, over the Dodecanese (held by Italy in defiance to the peace treaty), over Egypt and Libya, and perhaps over Kuwait as suggested by Lonnie

The main dependencies are on
1. The extent of Russia's collapse
2. Whether they can control the native movements in Turkestan
3. The extent of Britain's weakness
4. The situation with regard to Italy

Grey Wolf
 
Overall situation

To answer Grey Wolf's four points:
1. It is mid 1915, so Russia has not collapsed, but France's collapse has brought the entire Entente to the peace table. Russia is in the same situation as mid 1915 historical.
2. Turkestan--I know very little about this time and place, and so can't make a stab at it--yet.
3. Britain has lost a fair peice of the BEF in France , but still has a respectable army. The Royal Navy has only a few dreadnoughts ready for sea, but will complete repairs relatively soon--and has only lost one 15" dreadnought, the Queen Elizabeth. 8 15" dreadnoughts are building.
4. Italy is neutral

The US is truely neutral--and enforcing right of passage of its ships to neutral nations, even if the cargo will be trans-shipped to beligerant nations.
There is the disturbing possibility that, if the Empire demands too much, that Britian makes peace with Germany and Austria-Hungary, but not with the Ottomans.
I would expect Britian to object to the desire for Egypt, due to the Suez Canal's importance. Would the Ottomans be likely to get greedy, or try to get gains that they could realisticly keep long term?
 

Xen

Banned
I would expect Britain to be stubborn and start sending its BEF to fight on the eastern front. They fought Germany alone for over a year in WWII, if anything the British are a stubborn people. Id expect Britain to pressure Japan to send troops to fight on the Eastern front with them and Russia and the war continues.

Im not an expert but I also think Russia would hold out for a long time too, Nicholas II wasnt one to know when to quit while he was ahead.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Oh, I see

I hadn't noticed you said 1915, I had been assuming you meant the mid 1918 etc

Well, the Ottoman Empire probably hasn't got ANY enforceable war aims in mid 1915. I assume Italy never entered for why back an alliance as it is about to collapse - therefore the Dodecanese and Libya are not up for discussion. The situation vis-a-vis Russia is going to look like a stalemate. The empire will probably settle for a guarantee of its borders, a resumption of theoretical suzerainty over Egypt (abrogated in 1914) and financial restitution for its seized battleships

I think it likely that if France's armies have been broken and the Royal Navy defeated this badly, that there WILL be peace. Russia and Germany have more or less already said that they do not have any great strategic clashes. A negotiated peace in the East on the basis of the status quo ante-bellum seems likely

IMHO

Grey Wolf
 
Last edited:
My take

My take would be that there are no achievable war aims in this scenario. The most that Germany would support would be recovery of Kars and Ardahan, the easternmost part of Anatolia, taken in by Russia in 1878. Other than that, I don't see any possiblities. The Dodecanese might very well be recovered, as Italy was bound to return them in exchange for the Ottomans ending resistance in Libya, and since Italy hasn't entered the war, this could still happen. British withdrawal from Kuwait or Cyprus seems unlikely. Perhaps compensation would be acquired for Erin and Agincourt.

Russian collapse would open up huge opportunities, but without that, the Ottomans are unlikely to get much except agreement from the powers to accept abolition of the Capitulations, which in itself is a big deal, and will allow rapid Ottoman economic development.

I cannot agree that giving up the Arab lands would be a good thing - the Ottomans were in control of most of the world's oil reserves, and the Mesopotamian fields were known at the time. Although Turkish Nationalism was begin to appear at this time, it was such a weak force that I don't think it would have been a driving factor in Ottoman policy, especially given a Central Powers victory.
 
What are the Capitulations?

Many thanks to all for the input--no Great War A/H can simply ignore this front, as some have done.
I've heard of the Capitulations, but what are they? (My knowlege is far greater when I move to the Werstern Front--and the North Sea.
I have a lot of inspiration here--one again, thanks!
 
The Capitulations

The Capitulations were originially trade treaties granting rights to European powers to reward them for being good when the Empire was at its height, and usually granted the power special low tariffs and the right of their citizens to be subject to their own legal system. Thus, if an Englishman committed a crime, he would be tried by an English court - unless of course he committed a crime against an Ottoman.

As time passed and the Ottomans grew weaker in relation to the West, these treaties became more and more an exploitation and seriously hobbled the Ottoman economy, and were a leading cause of resentment; they were also a cause of deteriorating relations with the Christian minorities, who were registering as foreign nationals and thus gaining enormous competitive advantages. This was the primary source of Muslim hostility toward the Armenians, for example, whereas the primary Armenian grievance was that they had to pay their regular taxes, and also "protection money" to Kurdish tribal chieftains, whom the Ottomans had very little control.

All-in-all, the tax burden of Ottomans was far lower than what a Westerner would have to pay, but it is the perception of inequity that causes resentment.

In any case, the removal of the Capitulations would have allowed native Ottoman industry to develop, and this is probably of greater consequence than gaining new territory, although it would certainly be nice to have Azerbaijan and the oil fields of Baku.
 
Persia

One thing the Ottomans should be able to get is an end to AngloRussian control of Persia though the British might get assurances about the Abadan oil complex.
 
Good Point

In 1915 Ottoman and German influence in Persia was at its peak; Russian influence in the north could very well be supplanted in the North, and completion of teh Baghdad Railroad would help this effort.
 

Blair152

Banned
Pan-Turkicism is definitely a go here, as your 'everything else is similar' means that the Russian Empire has collapsed. OTL the Ottoman Empire entered Baku as part of its laying claim to Azerbaijan, and Enver ended up leading the native revolt for independence in Turkestan later.

A victorious Ottoman Empire would indeed look to reassert lost influence - over Cyprus, over the Dodecanese (held by Italy in defiance to the peace treaty), over Egypt and Libya, and perhaps over Kuwait as suggested by Lonnie

The main dependencies are on
1. The extent of Russia's collapse
2. Whether they can control the native movements in Turkestan
3. The extent of Britain's weakness
4. The situation with regard to Italy

Grey Wolf
Wouldn't the Ottomans want to drive the British out of Mesopotamia?
(Modern Iraq?)
 
Top