Obviously it all depends on priorities set by the Nazis in the 1930's leading up to WW2. I would argue that a viable long-range strategic bombing force and good quality long range fighters would be much more useful to the Germans than a large surface fleet. Grey Wolf's point is interesting. Perhaps if all naval construction went into subs and nothing on the surface larger than light cruisers (heck, i'd suggest nothing larger than DE's for ASW purposes), quite possibly Germany could have had an effective long-range strategic airforce while still having enough panzers and tactical planes to do army cooperation.
Another issue is timing and available aircraft. Early after the Luftwaffe was established the mid-1930's Germany began developing two 4-engined heavy bombers, the Ju-89 and Do-19, which were soon cancelled after priorities changed However, if either of these designs had been pursued and rushed into production, they would have been approaching obsolescence when the war began, and be nowwhere as effective as the Lancaster,Halifax, B-24 or B-17 were for the allies. Also, it needs to be remembered that when these two planes were cancelled, preliminary work did begin on a modern heavy bomber, the He-177. Had this plane not been a failure, Germany would have had a fine design around which to base a heavy bomber force in the early 1940's. All other German heavy bomber designs came about too late to help with the BoB. Realistically, knowing what we do about what the Germans actually tried to produce, bomber-wise, in the period 1934-1941 one needs to postulate either (1) a purely hypothetical plane or (2) a decision by Germany to license or copy an existing foreign design. Regarding foreign types, US or British planes would probably be be out of the question. The Italian Piaggio P1008 is a possibility, as might be the Soviet Pe-8 (hypothetically licensed during the Hitler-Stalin pact period. Japan had no long range bombers available for license.
Regarding long range fighters, the Focke Wulf Fw-187, designed in the late 1930's as a single seat, twin engined fighter, could have been in widespread production by 1940. It was apparently an excellent plane and, continually improved, could have given the Nazis a plane equivalent to the P-38. Another possibility could have been license-building the Japanese A6M Zero, which could have given the Germans a long range single engined fighter by mid 1941. Of course, the Germans might have added a lot of armor and stuff which would reduce its range and performance.
Finally, the real advantage of a long-range bomber force would not necessarily be in bombing the UK and USSR, but in anti-shipping duties in the Battle of the Altlantic. What might a force of several thousand offensively capable long range planes- capable of covering virtually the whole North Atlantic have had on submarine coordination and aerial attack on convoys?