Double nuclear states challenge

Starting in 1945, have a TL where there are 2 nuclear armed nations in 2004/Starting in 1945 have a TL where there are 20 nuclear armed states in 2004.
 
tom said:
Starting in 1945, have a TL where there are 2 nuclear armed nations in 2004/

Impossible. France, UK and Chine are bound to have them. Maybe later than OTL but they are bound to have them.

tom said:
Starting in 1945 have a TL where there are 20 nuclear armed states in 2004.

I wrote TL with this in previous board but it got lost or something. POD is that Sovs refuse to leave Iran after WW2 and are threatened with nukes, then withdraw. Meanwhile NATO is concerned that US "Shield and Sword" doctrine sets nuclear treshold too high and will leave large parts of Germany in Soviet hands. So NATO countries decide to develop nukes of their own. As proliferation spreads WW2 Axis powers are prohibited from getting them. There is also several joint bombs. So you have following nuclear powers:

US, UK, France, Sweden, Belgium/Netherlands, Switzerland, China, ROK, Taiwan, Iran, India, Pakistan, Israel, Iraq, Syria/Egypt, SAR, Australia, Libya. That was 1970s. After that you can add some more countries like Turkey, Greece, Thailand, Algeria, Argentina, Brasil....
 
As far as the two nuclear states scenario how about this:

NATO goes to war with the Wasaw PAct in mid 1950's. It goes nuclear. Before it's over Russia have nuked say 5 or 6 American cities Devestation is much worse in Western Europe and worst of all in Eastern Europe. Destruction causes a medium intensity nuclear winter. Outside the Warsaw Pact civilization survives but it's a grim world. Europe rebuilds as a single federal republic. A belligerent America announces that it will let the European Union to have nuclear weapons and nobody else. That includes China which complies.
 
Nationalist China with Nukes in 1945

The Japanese have a sudden burst of brilliance and build Liquid Thermal Isotope separation plants in northern Korea starting in 1937, just after the neutron enhanced fission phenomenum is discoverd.
The USSR learns that the Japanese are building Liquid Thermal Isotope separation plants in North Korea by tapping the underwater telegraph cables with a special sub in 1939. We did build cable tapping subs in the fifties and there are books about them. In this ATL the Russians do it first.
They build up their army faster and when the Germans invade Poland they invade Manchuria instead of Finland, liberating the Chinese. They use their parachute corps, the biggest in the world, and seize the north Korean facility intact, following up with a conventional armored attack across Manchuria. They have a cargo ship docking in the Korean harbor with more troops on board and they reinforce the attack force with supplies and more troops. This gives them the hydroelectric facilities and the LTD plant but it still takes two years to deliver the fissionable materials in adaquate quantities.
The war in Europe is still going on. Hitler dumps his treaty with the Japanese because with the rest of Europe allying against him he has enough to worry about.
The Chinese-Japanese war ends by June 1941 because the Russians blockade Japan, having started by sending their subs into Japanese harbors in a sneak attack and having their small fleet trailing Japanese merchant ships to sink them, having sent them out previously to do just that. Japan is furious, but what can they do? The Russians have a large airforce and sub fleet just next door, and a surface navy that essentially bans the Japanese merchant fleet from the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, and the eastern Pacific.
The Japanese don't have any friends and after Nanking they are susceptible to propaganda attacks so they don't get any friends. They can't reinforce China without unacceptable casualties, they lose air supremacy over China, the communist Chinese are massively reinforced by a new railroad across Mongolia and can recruit more successfully with plenty of food and supplies, they can't get credit from Europe because Europe is fighting a war, they can't import oil because the Russians keep sinking their tankers, they can't get more ships from Europe because the German subs are sinking the European tankers, the Russian airforce is mining their harbors with long range aircraft flying at night, etc.
The USSR does better in their war with the Germans if the Germans conquer Europe anyway because in this war they have lots of experienced troops to match the experienced German troops, lots of troops from their Chinese allies, not to mention that the Germans lose Berlin in July of 1941 to a nuclear attack. This sort of disrupts the German alliances.
So the US gets very enthusiastic about LTD plants and builds lots and builds some more dams to get more electricity, too. Instead of the Alaska road and pipeline we build the Churchill Falls hydropower unit in Labrador and a railroad there past the iron ore deposits that we stopped at in OTL. We aren't fighting WWII ITTL, so we make much faster progress.
The 1942 peace treaty leaves Europe demilitarized and nuclear free, and the US and the USSR confront each other in a bipolar world. The world has had a much less bloody and expensive WWII. Especially Russia!
 
Tom_B said:
As far as the two nuclear states scenario how about this:

NATO goes to war with the Wasaw PAct in mid 1950's. It goes nuclear. Before it's over Russia have nuked say 5 or 6 American cities Devestation is much worse in Western Europe and worst of all in Eastern Europe. Destruction causes a medium intensity nuclear winter. Outside the Warsaw Pact civilization survives but it's a grim world. Europe rebuilds as a single federal republic. A belligerent America announces that it will let the European Union to have nuclear weapons and nobody else. That includes China which complies.

The problem is that in 1950s I doubt Sovs had that many nukes. That's ~7 years since their test. 30 bombs tops (if that). And since no ICBMs they had to be droped by bombers. Which can be intercepted. And they are crude, not very efective weapons. Which means that if you hit a city of NY size chances are you woun't wipe it out. Which means devastation isn't that bad. Also Soviet AF received their Tu-95s and My-4s in 1956 so their delivery capabilities are questinable.

As for nuclear winter, look at how many nukes were tested. During 1960s when US and SU were in "mine is bigger than yours" pissing contest they were poping them up like enriched uranium suplies are getting near ther "best used before" date (this was period of biggest, 57 MT bomb). Not that much change in global climate (not counting pigs with 6 legs in Kazahstan and Nevada ;) ).

IMO if war kicks off in 1950s there wouldn't be much nuclear devastation. SU would be hit hard but W Europe and US much less.


tom said:
Wkwillis:
ahh...we do?
I could see 9 at most, if you include Israel and North Korea.

USusally it's refered to 5+2+1 (5 recognised nuclear powers with NPT, 2 who aren't recognised as such but made their weapons public and Israel which is neither but is recognised as nuclear power). NK is questinable. They claim they have them, but didn't prove it like India or Pakistan.

What I think wkwillis is refering to is definition of nuclear proliferation. Narrowest sense is increasing of countries that tested their nukes. Broader definition is proliferation of military technology and knowledge used for building nukes (enrichnemnt, processing facilities), which isn't under international (IAEA) supevision. Even broader definition menas proliferation of above also in civilian sector (also withount int'l supervision). And broadest definition is above even though there is int'l supervision.

To give an example. Pakistan became nuclear power in narrowest sense when they tested their nuke (1998). In second definition they were one since 1980s. Israel isn't nuclear power in narrowest sense. They are one in all other definitions. By applying broadest definition every country with at least one NPP is nuclear power (Yay, Slovenia is nuclear power. We demand respect!!!!! :p ).

But these definitions don't take into account political will. Japan can become nuclear power in narrowest sense in couple of months. Should they decide to.
 
Top