Humanitarian Intervention in the Sudan early 1990s

Design a POD where, at some point after 1992-93, the US embarks on a fullscale military campaign against the National Islamic Salvation Front govt in the Sudan, in support of the southern Sudanese black Christians and the Sudan Ppl's Liberation Army (SPLA), in their struggle for independence against the oppressive Islamic fundamentalist north and the Islamists' atrocities of mass slave-taking of Christians from the south and forced conversion of kidnapped Christian children, use of chem and bio weapons to suppress the insurgency, and blockading the SPLA-controlled areas in order to starve them into submission. How would such a US-led 'coalition of the willing' campaign have panned out ? Is such a humanitarian intervention in Sudan still possible thruout the last couple yrs since Sept 11 ? Despite the Sudanese govt's guarantees to the US that it's renounced all support of Islamic fundamentalist terrorism and signed a peace treaty with the SPLA, there's apparently been evidence that the north is still covertly conducting the war of forced conversion and oppression against the south's Christian pop.

Is that before, after or instead the intervention in Somalia? I don't think there would be political will for something like that, unless Sudan instead of Afghanistan is housing Osama bin Laden.

Sudan

Guilherme, this POD would be after Somalia- as I stated in a thread on the previous board, according to Scott Peterson's ME AGAINST MY BROTHER, there was actually info that the Khartoum govt was apparently fearful before Oct 1993 that the US would draw on the success of Op RESTORE HOPE to conduct similar military humanitarian intervention in the southern Sudan. So, could a more successful Op GOTHIC SERPENT and reconstruction of Somalia, together with viable intel that the Sudanese govt was substantially supporting international terrorists, have provided Washington the necessary impetus to undertake another military intervention in Africa to support the SPLA ?

How about this, the Secretary of Defense actually has the best intrest of the American soldiers and Marines at heart and sends over the necessary equipment which results in less loss of life. No bodies being drug through the streets and the public opinion is much higher. A workable government is placed in Mogadishu and order is restored to the country.

A year later, the US gets involved in Sudan, establishing a no-fly zone over southern Sudan with help from Somalia and Ethiopia. A secessionist movement kicks off in south Sudan as the Republic of Nuba. Northern Arabs get upset and attempt some terrorist activity in southern cities, but Kharakoum is hit by a couple of cruise missiles and the attacks cease for a while.

Osama Bin Laden organizes a terrorist strike during his stay in the Sudan against US forces in Nuba. 76 soldiers are killed in the attack, and Bill Clinton demands Bin Laden to be handed over. Faced with the possibility of the US invading, Sudan complies. A small battle for Bin Laden between Bin Ladens goons and Sudanese Police wounds the nutjob, but he is alive and in well enough condition to face trials at the Hague. The day before he is supposed to be sentenced, Bin Laden hangs himself leaving a note encouraging Arabs and Muslims to fight against the two great satans (Israel and the US).

Bin Laden becomes a martyr to the more radical Muslims but doesnt have near the following he has now. Terrorist attacks against the west are not able to mount to anything as significant as 9-11 and are limited in scope to attack Americans and other westerners in the Middle East. The military base in Saudi Arabia becomes a favorite target of these terrorists.

Melvin Loh said:

Guilherme, this POD would be after Somalia- as I stated in a thread on the previous board, according to Scott Peterson's ME AGAINST MY BROTHER, there was actually info that the Khartoum govt was apparently fearful before Oct 1993 that the US would draw on the success of Op RESTORE HOPE to conduct similar military humanitarian intervention in the southern Sudan. So, could a more successful Op GOTHIC SERPENT and reconstruction of Somalia, together with viable intel that the Sudanese govt was substantially supporting international terrorists, have provided Washington the necessary impetus to undertake another military intervention in Africa to support the SPLA ?

Click to expand...

Hmm, I think an intervention in Sudan after Somalia is going to be a hard sell - remember all that walking on eggs regarding Haiti a few years later. You either got to have a successful Somalian intervention, or a compelling reason for intervening in Sudan(the 9/11 kind of compelling, or something that, while not as damaging, becomes a big tragedy as well). Christians being killed in a faraway s***hole simply isn't going to be good enough to the average American, or the average American politician.