Straha
Banned
Russians win Russo-Japanese war. Consequences?
How big a win?
Fact is that the loss had two important consequences:
1. Turned Russian attention back from the Far East to Turkey
2. Enabled France to cement the Dual Ententes - Franco UK 1904 and Russia UK 1907 without the UK having to give up the ANgloJapanese Alliance of 1902
Now play the hand out in reverse:
Russia wins big.
Takes Manchuria and Korea
Does not matter for these purposes if the Japanese win at Tshuima and take all of Sakhalin.
Russia and England must now settle accounts not just over Central Asia and Persia but also China which is MUCH harder
Possibility one: Tripartite partition of China between UK, Japan and Russia with Germany and France each thrown a very small bone. The alliance structure is preserved at the cost of alienating the US - both the moralists and the China Lobby swing antiBrit - much less chance of US de facto economic support of Allies in WWI. Much greater chance of a Hughes victory in 1916 and US neutrality plus a US - Mexican War.
Possibility two: AngloJapanese guarantee of rump China south of the Great Wall in place 1905-06. French probably have to choose between UK and Russia in period 08 - 12. Probable result in partition of the Balkans before the Balkan Wars destroy European Turkey . A Greater Bulgaria as a Russian protectorate. A Greater Albania under the Italian crown. Russia joins a continental League with Germany, AH and Turkey. Three way partition of Persia between Turkey, Russia and UK. Partial partition of Afghanistan into
spheres of influence. No WWI. No Russian revolution. No Fall of the Empires. Much nicer 20th century as no WWI means no WWII. Imperialism lasts longer. So does first age of economic globalism. Europe is #1 until late in the century when US catches up but never passes them. Less scientific progress but higher world standard of living.
Oh and either way no Russian Revolution of 05-06 or of 1917.
How big a win?
Fact is that the loss had two important consequences:
1. Turned Russian attention back from the Far East to Turkey
2. Enabled France to cement the Dual Ententes - Franco UK 1904 and Russia UK 1907 without the UK having to give up the ANgloJapanese Alliance of 1902
Now play the hand out in reverse:
Russia wins big.
Takes Manchuria and Korea
Does not matter for these purposes if the Japanese win at Tshuima and take all of Sakhalin.
Russia and England must now settle accounts not just over Central Asia and Persia but also China which is MUCH harder
Possibility one: Tripartite partition of China between UK, Japan and Russia with Germany and France each thrown a very small bone. The alliance structure is preserved at the cost of alienating the US - both the moralists and the China Lobby swing antiBrit - much less chance of US de facto economic support of Allies in WWI. Much greater chance of a Hughes victory in 1916 and US neutrality plus a US - Mexican War.
Possibility two: AngloJapanese guarantee of rump China south of the Great Wall in place 1905-06. French probably have to choose between UK and Russia in period 08 - 12. Probable result in partition of the Balkans before the Balkan Wars destroy European Turkey . A Greater Bulgaria as a Russian protectorate. A Greater Albania under the Italian crown. Russia joins a continental League with Germany, AH and Turkey. Three way partition of Persia between Turkey, Russia and UK. Partial partition of Afghanistan into
spheres of influence. No WWI. No Russian revolution. No Fall of the Empires. Much nicer 20th century as no WWI means no WWII. Imperialism lasts longer. So does first age of economic globalism. Europe is #1 until late in the century when US catches up but never passes them. Less scientific progress but higher world standard of living.
Oh and either way no Russian Revolution of 05-06 or of 1917.