1982:Spaniards seize the Rock whilst the RN's in the Falklands

Whilst the entire 50 warship strong Royal Navy is away fighting the Argentinians in the Falklands-Malvinas, the Spaniards in a similar act of reckless Hispanic macho send a division over the border and take Gibraltar. After 100 killed on both sides, the British regiment there surrenders. King Juan Carlos announces that Gibraltar is now part of "Espagna Indivisible", that the residents there now have full rights as Spanish citizens, or are free to leave. Thatcher can't call the ships back, but she's wasn't one to backdown ever. The US would rather have the British controlling the mouth of the Mediterranean, but would Maggie dare launch military counter-action against another NATO/EEC state?

"in a similar fit of Hispanic macho"

Hee hee.

That is a good one. The British might have resrouces from the RAF and Army to use that aren't being used in the Falklands. Some sort of paratroop drop, though I am woefully ignorant of their resources.

Torqumada

The US tells Spain to stop, or else.

Being a NATO member, spain complies.

In some nations, national or ethnic pride can sometimes spontaneously overrule all other considerations and thought-processes. Didn't two Hispanic nations actually go to war over a football match? Once Gibraltar is occupied, the Spaniards (who also have a dislike for "Los Yankee Gringos") would not back down for anyone and would have to be physically prised out, which may not be possible. Spaniards would put up much more of a fight than the Argentinians. British airborne drop capability at 1000 mile range is non-existent, and with no naval transportation (even the Channel ferries were comandeered for the Falklands!), the French aren't exactly going to let the British cross the Pyrenees in a Peninsular War II!

Not sure on the distances involved, but if the British didn't have any transport craft that could handle the job I am sure a few dozen American transports with a few fighter escort would be making a "previously scheduled" flight that would take them within the vicinity of Gibraltar. It would be a combined exercise with British paratroopers on board.

Torqumada

Dunash: El Salvador and Honduras, I think, but the footballmatch was merely the trigger which let the hostile sentiments in the popultions expldoe...

The US and the UN as well would condemn Spain. Even 'Hispanic Macho' can't stand up to worldwide sanctions and the blue helmets too.

A very logical question is why does Spain want Gibraltar? Its not exactly like they have a Navy or Army capable of exploiting any strategic advantage it would give them. Matter of fact, they probably find a large British base rather reassuring.

Can you smell what the Rock is cooking?

Army or no army, I wouldn't put any money on Spain.


Oh, you were talking about Gibraltar...

But the British had it longer.

In 1462 the Kingdom of Castile took the rock from the Moors. The lost it to an Anglo-Dutch expedition in 1704. Years under Castile/Spain 242. Years under England/Great Britain 300. Now as badly as the Spanish want it back I don't see them giving Melilla or Cueta back to Morocco.

Spain would get to keep it despite the protests, but would need 20 years to heal the diplomatic damage fully.

This being said, they'd probably, in retrospect, be respected for the act today more than anything else.

The British would probably not risk major escalation. The dreams of imperial grandeur are gone, and the two incidents over the falklands and gibraltar would probably convince them to give up the remanants quietly.

The two Spanish enclaves in North Africa become hostages, UK blockades them, sinks any Spanish ships trying to cross and announces that Spain's TWO territories are forfeit unlease Gibralter is returned along with punitive damages. If Spain backs down, the country, less than a decade past France, may see the government collapse. If fighting does break out it will be only until the US intervenes and orders Spain to yield, with the US taking Gibralter by force and returning it to the British.

What I'd like to know is how are the Spainards going to get into the great fortress? And considering the UK armed forces are already in a war, why the Hell should they surrender any part of Gibraltar, especially if the locals don't want anything to do with Spain?

The way I see it, the Gibraltar garrison locks itself up in the Rock until help arrives. In the meantime, the Spainish division is cut to peices in futile attacks. Then the world condemns Spain for attacking Gibraltar, whilst the UK is busy with the Falklands, for the cowardice act that it is. Expect the worst for Spain, particularly in the aftermath of British victory in the Falklands.

Now, although the Gibraltar garrison may have to wait a while for army reinforcements, there's nothing to stop the RAF getting involved. Then again, there's still the various units of the BAOR which aren't committed to the Falklands. If things get really bad for the Gibraltar garrison, expect a few BOAR divisions to be on the move. Afterall, we're talking PM Margie here. Hell, the entire BAOR may be on the move to the Spanish border as I'd highly doubt the French would say no under the circumstances (and you never know, but the French may even join in!). You could end up with Spain soon discovering it's being over-run from the north whilst it is focusing on Gibraltar (crazy scenario I know, but Spain trying to invade Gibraltar during the Falklands War is just as crazy IMHO).

And just like the Brazilians quietly helped the British against the Argentinians, so might the Portugese help them against the Spaniards. Even Morocco might get militarily involved. Actually don't some of Nostradamus' quatrains depict such a scenario?! (30% of Spain's GNP is from tourism; none of the 1 million Britons who go to Majorca alone each year would ever go again!).

ASBs, happy with their sucess, congratulate themselves and throw a big party.

NATO would prevent this from happeneing. Things like this can't be hidden, not with Spain in NATO and all. Once this is discovered NATO would do everthing in their power to persuade Spaniards to drop the idea.

Look how close Greeks and turks were coupel of times to real war and were persuaded to drop the idea. And Spaniards and Brits don't have that much historical hate in them.....

Spain not NATO member until 1986

Err guys, just 1 thing re Spain and Britain in 1982: Madrid didn't actually join NATO until 1986. Therefore, previous posts on US influence vis-a-vis Spain thru NATO will have to be reconsidered- Washington would've still considered Madrid an important ally in the early 80s prior to NATO membership, but not to the same extent as would've been the case after Spain decided to join the alliance...

Possible scenario for Spain invading Gibraltar in 1982: WI some ultranationalist regime took over from Franco's fascists after 1975, and decided to launch a 'Reconquista' of Gibraltar against the 'British invaders' ?

Dunash said:

And just like the Brazilians quietly helped the British against the Argentinians, so might the Portugese help them against the Spaniards. Even Morocco might get militarily involved. Actually don't some of Nostradamus' quatrains depict such a scenario?! (30% of Spain's GNP is from tourism; none of the 1 million Britons who go to Majorca alone each year would ever go again!).

Click to expand...

No more British tourists getting pissed in Spanish territories. Every single British citizen on the rock with a radio becomes a resistor. Every other country in Western Europe condemns the alien space bats for making the Spanish do such a cowardly thing. The soviets sit back and laugh. The US intervenes on the UKs side, again. After the Fleet is sorted post Falklands, the Marines storm ashore. Assuming the Spaniards manage to take the thing in the first place.

Melvin,

If Spain hasn't joined NATO at this point, the mutual-defense clause is invoked and Spain is toast. Methinks the Sovs will help out Spain a little just to vex NATO.

Oh so we're into full ASB territory are we? So anything goes?

So let's have it that Spain attacks the Rock, but gets caught up in very stubbon fighting. The UK forces become besieged in the great fort, whilst the Spainards have to endure the hatred of the locals.

Spain is condemned by the world. NATO, considering Spain isn't a member, warns Spain to withdraw or face possible military intervention. France, not being a member of NATO per se, says it's going to stay out of it. So the BAOR can't drive across France & invade from the north.

PM Maggie losses her temper in utter frustration & calls in the RAF & RN. She orders the destruction of Madrid if Spain doesn't withdraw with 24 hours. Immediately thereafter PM Maggie goes on TV & announces that Madrid will be destroyed by a nuclear weapon if Spain doesn't cease their invasion & withdrawal. The Spainish thinks she bluffing & ignore her demands, but alerts their airforce to the threat just in case.

24 hours later, the RAF bomber goes into Spainish territory, but is shot down. Soon, thereafter, the Spainish govt realises Maggie wasn't bluffing & decides to withdraw. Unfortunately for Spain, PM Maggie (ignorant of the Spainish govt's new decision) orders the RN to launch the back-up plan & a SLBM is fired at Madrid. 10 miniutes later Madrid explodes in a nuclear fireball destroying the city not to mention the Spainish govt.

The Spainish fighting in Gibraltar immediately withdraw should the rest of Spain be consumed in nuclear flames.

The Apes of Gibraltar just watch on in total fascination wondering why the humans act so funny. Afterall, the Rock belongs to the Apes or don't these humans realise this?

Does that happen after or before the Hitlerean loyalist Sonnenkinders secretly based on Mars strike back in their flying saucers and mind control the earth's governments?

The odds of nukes being used against western nations is zero. Nowadays, a referendum in Gibraltar to rejoin with Spain would be enough for the territory to go back. The thing is, these folks dont want to join Spain, so Spain doesnt even want them.

In other words, the whole scenario is quite absurd. As absurd as to think NATO, BAOR or nukes would appear anywhere.