a pair of south african WIs

1 The Afrikaaner minority government there does not fall, and indeed, manages to come to a modus vivendi with the west, ending sanctions. Consequences?

2 Design a scenario whereby the Afrikaaners might regain dominant rule in South Africa, either the whole of it or a rump.

my idea on #2 They do not wait for the liberals, English and Jews to leave - they expel them - confiscating their wealth along the way. One way dump onto the beaches at Walvis Bay, Namibia. Replace them all and more with Ost persons fleeing the wreck of post Communist Eastern Europe, especially police, military and tech types. Also pick up usueable refugees - Tutsis, SouthEast asian boat people, Burmese hill people, Meo - Wholesale ethnic cleansing of the Xhosa and other 'ANC comtaminated' peoples - no massacres - just million man forced marches to the Zimbabwian frontier. Keep the early 80's garrison state - explode your nukes and dare the world to do its worst. In the post Cold War world no one is going to do shit.

I think it would be very hard for the Afrikaners to maintain minority rule while still enjoying good diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. Especially since the Cold War ended. What kept South Africa in good graces with the West was that it was staunchly anti-Communist and the ANC were seen as Communist sympathisers so essentially most governments in the West preferred the Nationalist Party to the alternative. At least that way South Africa which was of great strategic value. From 1967-1975 when the Suez Canal was closed the "round the cape" route was vital for oil tankers heading from the Middle East towards Europe and America. Also South Africa was the largest producer of gold in the non-Communist world. South Africa also has several strategic minerals such as uranium. With the cold war over, the rhetoric changes. The West is interested in democracy and you'd better believe that sanctions against South Africa would only increase. There would be more violence and more whites would leave in droves. The economy would also be shattered.

As for expelling the English and Jews, they are the two most economically prominent groups in South Africa. Without them the economy would fall. And why would the Afrikaners want Eastern Europeans? Throughout the 1960s and 1970s when the South African government was able to attract many white immigrants the Afrikaners complained that there were too many non-protestants and that most of the newcomers (Portuguese, Greeks, Italians and Yugoslavs) assimilated into the English-speaking minority. So why would they want slavs? What would these new immigrants do for a living? The same goes for the Miao and Tutsis who the Afrikaners would want even less. International migration is controlled by push and pull factors and a chatotic South Africa would not attract many newcomers. In fact the opposite would happen the Afrikaners would also leave in droves. Many of South Africa's white emigrants today are Afrikaners, just look in a phone book in Perth and you'll find tons of Dutch surnames. I only see a hardcore minority remaining, not more than half, so you have 1.5 million whites trying to rule over millions of destitute non-whites.

There are ways I can see a white South Africa surviving in the present day though. One is have all of the oil that is in the Middle East be in Southern Africa instead. So have major oilfields on the Indian Ocean running from Beira in Mozambique South to Port Elizabeth. Then have more north of Cape Agulhas and all along the Atlantic coast until Gabon. Have oil also found inland in Botswana, Free State Province, Gauteng and Zimbabwe. Have this oil be discovered in the 1930s with in South Africa and the other countries in the 1950s. South Africa will be much like Saudi Arabia with huge oil reserves. This encourages huge investment in South Africa and attracts more white immigrants. From a geopolitical standpoint South Africa has 1/4 of the world's oil reserves so there is little that Western countries can do against South Africa. In OTL Saudi Arabia has perhaps one of the most undemocratic regimes in the world, yet there is very little criticism on the part of Western countries even from the Americans since they need the oil. With oil being drilled in the 1950s more whites are attracted to Rhodesia so they are able to hold onto power there. Maybe they are strong enough to amalgamate Northern and Southern Rhodesia together and dump Nyasaland forming an independent white ruled country. Then with more oil in Angola and lots in Mozambique the Portuguese have more resources to hold onto their colonies and you can bet that their NATO allies would make certain that both territories don't fall into the hands of Marxist dictators as they did in 1975. So I see the Europeans and the Americans basically striving to prop up the non-democratic minority regimes of Southern Africa since they have over 1/2 the world's oil reserves.

I also posted a TL not too long ago where the "ultras" (hard core rightists) take power in Portugal after Salazar's incapacitation in 1968. They get rid of Portuguese Guinea where most of the money and men were being used up in the guerilla war against the Portuguese freeing up resources to bolster defences in Angola and Mozambique and winning the wars there by the late 1970s. This secures a buffer zone for the South Africans keeping the border wars away making their economy not go into the freefall that it did after they invaded Angola in 1975. In this TL they don't have to fight the Cubans and South Africans over Namibia. Also with the Portuguese firmly in power, Margaret Thatcher concedes that it's pointless to keep punishing Rhodesia and comes to an agreement with Ian Smith where independence of Rhodesia is recognised in return Smith agrees to gradually offer more political representation to the African majority while Britain pledges funds for the social and economic welfare of the African majority. With Rhodesia in white hands, the ANC loses its main base of operations that they used in the 1980s. Botswana is also out an option since they are surrounded on all sides by hostile states so they become a puppet. When world copper prices crash in 1975, Zambia's economy plumetts and has less leverage against South Africa or Rhodesia. Mobuto Sese Seko in Zaire was pretty cozy with South Africa so basically the closest hostile state to South Africa is Tanzania.
As for sanctions, Portugal can just funnel goods through Mozambique to South Africa. However it's unlikely that sanctions with be very well enforced. After all since the cold war ended Africa is basically the forgotten continent. I can see South Africa prospering in this TL although still bearing a great deal of international criticism. All of the 10 Bantustans would be independent today but none would be internationally recognised. After the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, South Africa would be able to attract some immigrants from the Ukraine and Russia. They'd probably want highly skilled engineers and technicians to help bolster South Africa's defence industry. Though the new Eastern Europeans would only amount to maybe 100-150,000 at the most. Don't expect any mass migrations since South Africa has never been a place for large numbers of Europeans to settle since they have the large native population to do the unskilled and semi-skilled labour that was traditionally done by European immigrants in North America. Though a steady migration of perhaps 20-30,000 net immigrants can be maintained if the high living standards enjoyed by whites in South Africa in the early 1970s can be maintained to the present day.

In Larry Bond's VORTEX, the post-Vorster SA includes 2 new subdivided entities where racial extremists of both colours are able to get their wish of living among purely their own kind: the Oranjewerkerstaat and Azanian Ppl's Republic. Potentially, the Afrikaner extremists like the AWB could draw up plans seeking to establish their own 'all-white' state out of the Orange Free State and Transvaal along those lines (didn't OTL Eugene ter Blanche, before he got arrested and imprisoned for beating the crap out of 1 of his black farmworkers, advocate such a plan ?). Maybe if the AWB and co could get their act together enough to launch a successful military uprising to establish control over such a rump area and declare their own Afrikaner republic ?

As to the 1st scenario, WI de Klerk was replaced by an Afrikaner leader who wasn't as willing to accomodate the ANC by 1990 ?

Hi, I'm from South Africa.

According to FW de Klerk, the NP came to the conclusion that since the USSR had fallen, the ANC would no longer receive any Communist support and the formation of a Communist state by the ANC would no longer be a reality. The NP then entered into negotiations with the ANC and other prominent parties to undergo a smooth, non-violent transitional period of joint government between the NP and ANC until the first trully democratic elections in 1994.

The White government did therefore not ''fall'' but made a decision to hand over power to the ANC. When FW de Klerk announced that the Apartheid policies were going to end, it came to an absolute shock to us whites. We couldn't understand why, our military was exceptionally strong and our economy was doing well. The sanctions didn't even affected us, a person could buy any item they wished from the shops without any shortages whatsoever.

South Africa could have easily stayed an Apartheid regime, and anyway if there were any serious uprisings, black casualties would be immense. The townships and non-white areas were designed in such a way as to be bombed and destroyed by aeroplane with a minimum amount of bombs and we had a huge white army that was regarded as one of the best trained in the world, excellently equipped and hardened from the constant Border War with the Angolans. One only has to look at the immense losses suffered by the Angolans, Cubans and East Germans at the hands of the South African Defence Force and the minimal casualties suffered by SA!

South Africa had numerous nuclear bombs and could've easily threated most of Africa with them.

If South Africa was still an Apartheid regime, we would still have the death-penalty, the crime rate would still be minimal, unemployment would be less, homosexuality would be illegal, prostitution would be illegal, pornography basically illegal, there would still be conscription, the streets would still be patrolled by many soldiers and policeman and city streets would still be squeaky clean.

South Africa would probably have integrated South West Africa(Namibia) of which SA had the protectorate over into our own borders. SA could easily have occupied any African country all the way up to the Equator, there would have been no resistance. SA had, and still has the farthest reaching artillery in the world, artillery was used to flatten entire Angolan cities to rubble and I don't think the Army would have hesitated to do so against any other African country that opposed us.

And if the USA attacked SA, it would be worse that Vietnam, we had ten years of reserve fuel protected under granite mountains impregnable to any bombs or missiles. And unlike other American attacked countries, SA could mass produce many advanced anti-aircraft missiles, produce indigenously designed attack-helicopters, guns, tanks and artillery. The country would also never have to import any food and has an unlimited amount of resources, such as steel etc. And don't forget the Nukes.

But, South Africa is currently doing just great in it's new democratic form and is going from strength to strength. And by the way, the population is 45 million and there are 6 million whites, about 500 000 whites left SA during the transitional period.

"If South Africa was still an Apartheid regime, we would still have the death-penalty, the crime rate would still be minimal, unemployment would be less, homosexuality would be illegal, prostitution would be illegal, pornography basically illegal, there would still be conscription, the streets would still be patrolled by many soldiers and policeman and city streets would still be squeaky clean."

Whoa there, a bit too nostalgic for apartheid. I concede that the post-apartheid situation has not exactly been splendid for SA (to be blunt, things in much of the country bite--I know a bunch of ex-South Africans); however, though whites (and I think some of the intermediate groups too, to a lesser extent) had freedom, blacks were subjected to all sorts of nasty things and that's just plain wrong.

Surely a more competent ANC gov't could have kept the clean streets, prevented the current crime pandemic (probably by keeping a lot of police around), kept prostitution illegal, and done various other useful things.

Since you're from SA, is it true that the ANC released a huge # of criminals (not just political prisoners, but murderers, rapists, etc)? And recruited a large # of illiterate blacks to be police (affirmative action)? I've heard that from some commentators on the post-apartheid situation.

Hey Matt Quinn

I'm NOT nostalgic for the Apartheid regime, but I am nostalgic for their attitude towards crime and their hardliner approach banning homosexuality, prostitution and most pornography. I wish our new government could've retained these policies. Crime would be less if the police were still as feared as they were and if there was a more authoritarian approach towards crime. I've got nothing against the ANC, only their attitude against crime.

And yes, the ANC sometimes does release prisoners, simply because the jails are too over-crowded, we don't have the death-penalty anymore, so this is becoming a bit of a problem.

And yes, affirmative action does amount to less than adequately qualified candidates getting jobs in the police force and other sectors.

So, besides some crime issues, the country is otherwise doing very well with regards to economic growth and development.

Back to Original Question

How do you have Afrikaners keep control?

Well, if you mean 'white' Afrikaners, it is very difficult, requiring changes at the beginning, such as a lot more dutch and german settlers.

But if you are talking merely about a non-raciest Afrikaner dominated society, then design a history where blacks are co-opted into an Afrikaner dominated govt. early on. This gives Afrikaner culture a bigger population base. Because it is inclusive, more people can join and help support it.

Then, you have the country actively seek refugees from eveywhere in Europe, and teach them Afrikans as the Language of Choice. Maybe on the fall of the Russian Aristocracy you have refugees from Russia.

Going back to the original post, #2 (white rule in a 'rump' SA) would be fairly easy. Let's assume that the two sides decide they can't live in peace together. The whites could grant freedom to the black homelands (the real ones, not those pathetic little states they made up in the apartheid days), and the whites could settle down in the area around the original cape colony, where the blacks were not native (the original natives there, various San peoples, are mainly extinct now)....

How about an early POD

Straha said:

2 Design a scenario whereby the Afrikaaners might regain dominant rule in South Africa, either the whole of it or a rump.

Click to expand...

I think you're looking for relatively late POD's. How about an early one? In the Great War things go better for the CP including the late 1914 Boer Rebellion becoming successful. War ends in a treaty favorable to CP and it includes Afrikaner independence.

Aed Rhua (sic) had a partial timeline on the old board that included this.

The POD was the Morgenthau Plan being implemented at the end of WW2, I forget why. Germany is divided into smaller states around the scale of Austria. The 5 or 6 new countries are forcibly de-industrialized to help pay for the reconstruction of the rest of Europe and made treaty neutrals.

There aren't jobs in the cities, and the alternative is being forcibly relocated to a tiny farm in the countryside. So millions of Germans emigrate. Hardly any countries want that many immigrants: the largest number by far settle in South Africa. Way too many Germans come in to assimilate as they would normally. What assimilation does occur is a shift in spoken German towards English that ends up sounding remarkably like Dutch...

Too bad he never finished it.

Hi Constantine. I am also from South Africa. Our economy was not doing well in the late 1980s, the country was hugely in debt, oppression of the blacks and whites was getting worse, and our country was increasingly becoming an international pariah. The only reason our streets aren't as clean and there are as any policemen now is because we also have to keep the streets clean and keep crime down in black areas as well. The resources aren't what they used to be. The Nats were providing for five million people, the ANC now has to provide for 40-million people. And in a liberal democracy such as ours homosexuality, pornography and prostitution are fine if they take place between consenting adults. Now our economy is growing, there is international sport, and white South Africans are no longer the world's skunks. All-in-all the ANC is doing a better job that the National Party ever did.